Roto Riteup: May 21, 2015
Happy birthday to my sister and brother-in-law! Kind of convenient they share the same birthday, really.
On today’s agenda:
1. Joe Mauer goes Yahtzee
2. Josh Hamilton’s potential return
3. Shoulder surgery for Hyun-Jin Ryu
4. Welcome back, Jaime Garcia
5. Streaming Pitching Options
Joe Mauer goes Yahtzee
Generally speaking a first baseman hitting a home run isn’t huge news, however Mauer powered his first home run of the season yesterday. With a useful — albeit rather punchless — .284/.341/.381 line in 170 plate appearances this season, Mauer has driven in 24 runs thanks to exclusively hitting third in the Twins lineup. As deep as first base tends to be, it is somewhat surprising to see Mauer so readily available in many leagues. He’s owned in just approximately 50 percent of CBS, Yahoo! and ESPN leagues despite his solid rate stats and top-25 RBI count.
Josh Hamilton’s potential return
The 34-year-old outfielder figures to join the Rangers on Monday in Cleveland. It isn’t a moment too late for the Rangers, as their outfield has hit for a collective .214/.304/.365, ranking 26th in baseball. Without reading too much into a handful of minor league plate appearances, Hamilton has seen a mix bag of results in his combined Double and Triple-A numbers. Before yesterday’s game where he cracked a home run, Hamilton’s only other extra-base hits were four doubles. Prior to his 1-for-4 game yesterday, in 33 PAs he had struck out seven times against drawing two walks. Steamer likes Hamilton to hit for a rate 10 percent better than league average with 15 home runs, numbers that seem plausible for him. Without knowing where exactly he’ll slot into the lineup, Hamilton makes for an interesting and speculative add in 12-team mixed leagues. He is free to pick up in 30 percent of CBS formats and over 60 percent of ESPN and Yahoo! leagues.
Shoulder surgery for Hyun-Jin Ryu
The 2015 season may be over before it started for Ryu. The left-hander is set to undergo what will likely be season ending arthroscopic surgery on his throwing shoulder today. Both Carlos Frias and Mike Bolsinger figure to get plenty of starts in Ryu’s absence, though it is unlikely either will replicate Ryu’s strikeouts and ratios. While still in the realm of small sample size, Frias is likely the better option as his lower walk rate and higher swinging strike rate bode well for him. While Bolsinger does hold the higher K% as of right now, Frias owns a fastball seven mph faster as well as very slight edge in ground ball rate. Either make for a worthy stream option in most formats, but Frias holds the edge in enough categories to likely be the better pitcher. Both are widely available in the three major fantasy sites.
Welcome back, Jaime Garcia
After missing most of the 2014 season and all of the 2015 season to date, Garcia will toe the rubber for the Cardinals for the first time since June 20 of last year. He’s facing a Mets team that has hit southpaws at a 109 wRC+. It’s best to sit Garcia today, but in deep leagues I’ve already decided to stash him. He’s still free to pick up in more than 70 percent of CBS leagues and over 90 percent of Yahoo! or ESPN formats.
Streaming Pitching Options
If you enjoy streaming pitchers, tune into the Roto Riteup for recommendations each and every day.
A pitcher for today: Kyle Hendricks at SD (Odrisamer Despaigne)
The Padres have hit a tick below league average against right-handers this season. They’ve also drawn walks at the sixth lowest rate while striking out at the ninth highest rate versus a righty and I like Hendricks to post a quality start given the pitcher friendly nature of Petco Park. He’s available in more than 60 percent of CBS leagues as well as 90 percent of Yahoo! and ESPN formats.
A pitcher for tomorrow: Marco Estrada vs SEA (Felix Hernandez)
Estrada can generate his share of strikeouts, however his command and control tend to leave him at times. As a result, he can be struck by the long ball, but the M’s rate in the bottom half of the league against righties as per wRC+. It’s an admittedly dangerous start as the Rogers Centre can lead to a lot of home runs in a hurry, yet I’m confident Estrada can make the most of the Mariners and their seventh highest strikeout rate.
You can catch David spouting off about baseball, soccer, esports and other things by following him on twitter, @davidwiers.
I would agree that Mauer hitting a homer is notable at this point, but it should have an *. Any homer hit off Antonio Bastardo should have an *, because Antonio Bastardo really sucks.
I dropped him in a holds league. It’s a shame, because the Ks are here, but his walks + BABIP have just crushed him.
Rusney Castillo or Josh Hamilton as a better pick-up?
I would say if you need someone to plug into your lineup today, grab Hamilton since we know barring something unexpected, he will be back in the Rangers lineup next week. If you are just looking to stash someone, take Rusney since his upside is significantly higher than Hamilton’s at this point, even if we don’t know exactly when he will be called up.
Castillo, but it’s close. Both are solid parks, but I give the nod to him as there’s less injury risk and a better lineup around him.
Regarding Hamilton, if I am in a bigger need for HR’s and RBI’s than speed, would I be crazy to add him for Ender Inciarate? I like what Inciarte has done this year, but he has cooled off quite a bit since April and I could use power a lot more than average or speed. The only other Waiver Wire bat that profiles as a power option for me is Colby Rasmus, someone who I find hard to trust not to absolutely collapse considering his complete lack of plate discipline.
Nope, not crazy at all. I wrote up Rasmus is yesterday’s AL OF slot: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/searching-for-power-in-the-american-league-outfield/
TL;DR, I like Rasmus to hit dingers, but he’ll crush your rate stats.
What’s up with Danny Salazar’s 20% HR/FB ratio? When that comes back to normal how high is his ceiling? Or by that time will his control come back to earth, offsetting any possible improvement.
I’m buying Carrasco stock if you’re selling it! I still believe in him.
Haha very good to know but what about Salazar?
Stick with him too.
Would you drop Rodon for Paxton in a 12 team mixed roto, David? Thanks!
No, I like Rodon more than Paxton right now.
I see. How about Rubby De La Rosa or Rodon?
I would go with Rubby, just because as talented as Rodon is, his control is a ticking time bomb. Rubby seems much less likely to blow up and crush your pitching ratios for the week.
Rodon, but it’s close for me.
Any thoughts on whether to start or sit Teheran tonight against Milwaukee? I don’t totally understand what’s going on with him, but obviously I don’t trust him. Brewers don’t seem great again righties, but still.
Hindsight at this point, but I would have started him. The Brewers don’t hit righties particularly well.
I’ve noticed you’ve used wRC+ when discussing which pitchers to use against different teams. I don’t think this is the correct metric to use, especially when you’re talking about splits, like home/away or versus LHP/RHP. wRC+ measures how a player’s (or team’s) wRC compares to league average after controlling for league and park effects. For fantasy baseball purposes, league and park effects are very important. We don’t want to adjust for those effects.
As an example, if you sort teams by wRC+ at home, the Rockies are at 80, which ranks 28th in baseball, but they have the third-highest wOBA at home (.335). The Tampa Bay Rays have a home wRC+ of 112, 5th in baseball, but their home wOBA is .317, worse than the Rockies. The Texas Rangers’ home wRC+ is 96 and they have a higher home wOBA than the Rays, at .324.
So here are three options, all based on home stats:
Rockies: 80 wRC+, .335 wOBA, .283/.330/.444
Rangers: 96 wRC+, .324 wOBA, .253/.328/.409
Rays: 112 wRC+, .317 wOBA, .247/.318/.401
If you use wRC+ to decide which team you want your pitcher to face, you’d choose the Rockies.
I don’t think this is correct. Am I missing something?
I prefer to account for league/park effects on my own. Park factors are pretty well known at this point, perhaps not their full extent, but their existence. Raw wOBA has it’s place, but not for me in terms of streaming pitchers. I use personally use wOBA to compare same position players in the same era, not for a team evaluation.
Better example.
The Dodgers have been, by most measures, the best offense is baseball.
Home: 137 wRC+ (1st), .364 wOBA (1st)
Away: 107 wRC+ (5th), .331 wOBA (4th)
vs RHP: 130 wRC+ (1st), .360 wOBA (1st)
vs LHP: 96 wRC+ (T-21st), .307 wOBA (21st)
They’re awesome at home and the on road, no surprise. But they’re below average against lefties, mild surprise.
Here are the Blue Jays
Home: 122 wRC+ (2nd), .356 wOBA (2nd)
Away: 95 wRC+ (T-11th), .307 wOBA (13th)
vs RHP: 98 wRC+ (11th), .316 wOBA (T-10th)
vs LHP: 138 wRC+ (1st), .375 wOBA (1st)
Awesome at home given that park, not shocking, but less awesome on the road. Specifically, if they’re on the road against a RHP, they’re pretty human. Given their RHB heavy lineup, nothing ground breaking there. Depending on which metric you prefer, the numbers don’t shift much in single season sample sizes, let alone parts of seasons. I don’t think I’m wrong, nor do I think you are. The extremes like Colorado, and to a lesser extent places like Cincy, ChiSox, etc. do shift some, but for me, I much prefer platoon splits over park factors, thus I use wRC+. That it scales to the league average, rather than something like OBP a la wOBA, is a bonus when comparing pitchers and teams.
David, Thanks for responding.
You said: “The extremes like Colorado, and to a lesser extent places like Cincy, ChiSox, etc. do shift some, but for me, I much prefer platoon splits over park factors, thus I use wRC+. That it scales to the league average, rather than something like OBP a la wOBA, is a bonus when comparing pitchers and teams.”
I use platoon splits with wOBA by using a team’s wOBA vsLHP and wOBA vsRHP, so I don’t think it’s a matter of preferring platoon splits over park factors. Platoon splits can be used with either wOBA or wRC+ .
My theory is that raw wOBA is a better measure to use in fantasy because we don’t want to “control for park effects” as wRC+ does. It’s the park factor aspect of it that’s important.
I like the idea of scaling to league average (and controlling for park effects) as a measure of a player’s actual ability but, as I said, I think the raw numbers are better for fantasy.
Since I was curious, I looked at all teams and their wOBA rank and wRC+ rank on the road and at home. On the road, it doesn’t make a big difference for most teams. For 27 out of 30 teams, the difference between their rank in wOBA on the road and wRC+ on the road was just 0, 1, or 2 spots. No big deal. There were only 3 of 30 teams that had a difference in rank of 3 or more, with the biggest difference being the Marlins, with a difference of 5.
Marlins
Away: 93 wRC+ (14th), .311 wOBA (9th)
At home, though, it makes a difference for more teams. Sixteen of 30 teams have a difference in rank of 3 spots or more. Twelve of 30 have a difference of 5 spots or more. Seven of 30 have a difference of 7 spots or more. The teams with the biggest difference:
Rockies
Home: 80 wRC+ (28th), .335 wOBA (3rd)—difference of 25 spots
Rays
Home: 112 wRC+ (6th), .317 wOBA (17th)—difference of 11 spots
Athletics
Home: 112 wRC+ (5th), .324 wOBA (14th)—difference of 9 spots
Giants
Home: 99 wRC+ (15th), .300 wOBA (24th)—difference of 9 spots
Rangers
Home: 96 wRC+ (19th), .324 wOBA (12th)—difference of 7 spots
Diamondbacks
Home: 97 wRC+ (18th), .326 wOBA (11th)—difference of 7 spots
If you use wRC+ to help decide if you want to start a pitcher against a certain team, you might see the Rays and Athletics ranked 6th and 5th at home and shy away from them. Using home wOBA, though, where they rank 17th and 14th, you wouldn’t be so worried about starting your pitchers against them.
The Rockies are the most glaring example. Using home wRC+, they look like a good team to start your pitcher against (ranking 28th), but in actuality you wouldn’t want to start a pitcher against them at home (wOBA of 3rd).
I then did the same for vsLHP and vsRHP. Against LHP, only four teams have a difference in rank of five spots or more, with the biggest difference being the Diamondbacks (6th in wOBA vsLHP, 12th in wRC+ versus LHP).
It was similar for vsRHP, with four teams having a difference in rank of five spots or more, but two of those four teams had pretty large differences:
Rays
vsRHP: 96 wRC+ (13th), .301 wOBA (22nd)—difference of 9 spots
Rockies
vsRHP: 84 wRC+ (23rd), .319 wOBA (9th)—difference of 14 spots
Overall, I don’t think it makes a big difference with pitcher handedness splits or for teams on the road, but there are some teams at home that it does make a big difference for.
Just my two cents.
Well, that was a lot of text.
I can see your point of view and it’s valid, but for me, I’ll still stick with my method. Thanks for putting in some leg work on the matter.
Instead of spots and difference, probably standard deviations would be the best method, but again, in partial seasons, park factors and platoons need a big ol heap of salt.
Rank J. Garcia, Bolsinger, and Brett Anderson? Not sure which one to pick up.
Garcia (for as long as he can stay healthy), Anderson, Bolsinger.
Anderson > Garcia > Bolsinger.
The first two are awfully close though.