The Daily Grind: Dynasty, Chavez, Young

Agenda

  1. I’m Back!
  2. Dynasty Observations Pt 1
  3. Daily DFS – Chavez
  4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Young, Alvarez, Davis, Guyer
  5. Factor Grid

1. I’m Back!

I’m back in action after two days lost to illness and another where I fudged my way through the column in a fugue state. It’s possible that I’ve failed to notice some important detail that could otherwise influence today’s column. Please bear with me while I get back on track.

2. Dynasty Observations Pt 1

This is my first season participating in what I consider to be a true dynasty league. We have 20 teams, 45-man rosters, weekly lineups, and the freedom to build any way we like. One roster doesn’t even have any major leaguers. I’m partnered with Chad Young. Eno Sarris owns a separate team in the league.

I’ve noticed a few quirks about this format. Two positions, catcher and closer, play similarly to a standard 12-team mixed league. Although we use four outfielders, CI, MI, and two UTIL, we only have one catcher spot. Catchers on the wire include A.J. Pierzynski, Carlos Ruiz, and Robinson Chirinos. The best available catchers in my two-C home league are Francisco Cervelli, James McCann, and J.T. Realmuto. They’re qualitatively similar options.

To put this in perspective, the best available outfielders are Shane Robinson, Danny Valencia, and Jeff Francouer. Usually, we refer to catcher as a scarce position. In this particular league, it’s no more scarce than any other position. It’s certainly less scarce than skills based positions like shortstop or second base. We happen to be in good shape with Russell Martin. If we owned a guy like Jason Castro, I wouldn’t go out of my way to keep him.

Chad and I are attempting to walk a fine line between contention and rebuilding. We entered the season with just enough players to fill out a starting lineup. We’ve been fortunate with injuries – our only major losses have been Jed Lowrie and Drew Pomeranz. Tomorrow (assuming a more pressing topic doesn’t materialize), I’ll discuss the details of our pseudo-rebuild.

3. Daily DFS – Chavez

Early: Six games are early. We have some very interesting matchups available. There is a Clayton KershawMadison Bumgarner rematch – the third of the season if memory serves. It will probably be the lowest scoring game of the day. Jaime Garcia will make his 2015 debut in New York against Jake deGrom. That should be a fun one. Philadelphia remains at Coors Field for one more showdown. It’s Jerome Williams versus Jorge de la Rosa. It should be a high scoring affair, just be aware that everyone will have Rockies in their GPP lineups.

Late: And six games are late. The contest is jammed with sloppy starters. If you prefer to avoid a high risk, high reward pick like Danny Salazar at U.S. Cellular Field, then give Jesse Chavez a look. His stuff is marginally better than last season, he’s facing a weak lineup, and he’ll throw at pitcher friendly Tropicana Field. He’s opposed by Alex Colome.

Stack Targets: Odrisamer Despaigne, Kyle Hendricks, John Danks, Colome, Matt Garza, Matt Shoemaker, Williams, de la Rosa, Scott Feldman, Chris Tillman, Mat Latos, Archie Bradley

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Young, Alvarez, Davis, Guyer

Pitchers to Start: I don’t feel great about recommending Chris Young against the St. Louis Cardinals. He’s a soft-tossing, extreme fly ball pitcher, and he’ll throw in a park that is very forgiving to that profile. The Royals outfield is fantastic at running down fly balls, hence his crazy .132 BABIP. More hits will fall in, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he finished the year with a .200 BABIP.

I feel even worse about recommending Wily Peralta. He’s the only other guy under 50 percent owned who is even marginally acceptable.

Also consider: Peralta

Pitchers to Exploit: Henderson Alvarez’s velocity is down three mph this season. His command and control remains superb, but he’s not fooling anybody (5.6% SwStr, 9.1% K%). The righty will have a difficult time surviving the Orioles lineup.

Also consider: Sean O’Sullivan, Marco Estrada, Ryan Vogelsong, Kyle Kendrick, Josh Collmenter

Hitters (power): Khris Davis has the platoon advantage against Alex Wood. The Braves hurler has been somewhat shaky this season with a career low whiff rate. The Brewers have a potent stack of righties to send against him. Davis is the best among those on the wire.

Also consider: Yasmany Tomas, A.J. Pierzynski, Justin Bour, Danny Espinosa

Hitters (speed): Brandon Guyer has earned plenty of action this season, and he usually starts against lefties. Scott Kazmir is by no means an exploitable target, but Guyer has adequate speed, power, and contact ability. He’s working towards becoming a sneaky every day guy in sufficiently deep fantasy leagues.

Also consider: Nori Aoki, Angel Pagan, Adam Eaton, Jace Peterson, Alejandro De Aza

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Baltimore is the only location that concerns me this evening. A couple other spots have a 20 percent chance of rain, but that usually amounts to nothing. Without having done the math, I’d estimate that a 20 percent chance for rain results in a delay less than one percent of the time.

The Link.

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cpjackson
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cpjackson

Hey welcome back!

I don’t think I had any anxiety over the lack of this column for the last few days…. maybe some slight nervousness. It’s cool though.

Daily late-game stack targets: Everyone! So should I start combing through bullpen names in hopes that someone jumps in, eats up 3 innings or so and snags a win an a 13-8 affair?

I suppose if you wanted to try picking both Kershaw and Bumgarner for the early games, you’d be hard pressed to fill out the rest of your lineup, but that might not matter in a 50/50.