Searching For Power In the American League Outfield

After looking at base stealing options last week, today we’ll shift focus to the home run department. Both players on today’s list are mostly available, though they come with flaws attached to their home run potential. Without further ado, let’s take a look at Colby Rasmus and Chris Young.

Colby Rasmus: 27 percent ownership in CBS, sub-10 percent in Yahoo! and ESPN
The flaws with Rasmus are well known at this point. Contact issues and thus strikeouts have hurt him over the years and his K% has steadily risen in four consecutive seasons. His 8.7 percent walk rate helps in points or on-base percentage leagues, but his current .310 OBP is below the (non-pitcher) league average .321 mark. Despite these shortcomings, Rasmus has worked his way up the batting order after opening the season in the seventh or eighth slot. He’s appeared in the fifth spot and even cleanup in recent games, but is probably best suited for a sixth spot.

I’m speculating here, however it seems as though the Astros are willing to live with strikeouts in exchange for power — and not just from Rasmus — as the team leads the league in batter K% and home runs at the cost of being in the bottom five for batting average and OBP. He’s currently on pace to set a career high in swinging strike rate as well as a career low in contact rate. This “all or nothing” approach from Rasmus is brutal if you can’t offset what will likely be a .240 AVG going forward. Still, both Steamer and ZiPS project at least 13 more home runs from him this season, bringing his season total to the 21-24 range. If Rasmus can figure out a way to post 50+ RBIs the rest of the way, that removes some of the sting of his rate stats.

Chris Young: 27 percent ownership in CBS, 23 percent ESPN, 16 percent Yahoo!
The 31-year old Young is enjoying a resurgence this season. He’s already clubbed six home runs and his .264/.323/.538 line all rate above his career averages. Of course, Young is likely to regress as his .290 BABIP while not outlandish, is well above his .249 BABIP from 2012-14. That said, once his triple slash comes back down, Young should continue to be a source for home runs. His right-handed power to the pull field in Yankee Stadium should be played up as last year the park was tied for the sixth highest HR index for righties. Given that Young has smashed 135 of his 161 career home runs to the pull field, I like his odds to continue to connect for long balls. With his home park and ability to exploit it, even with a 18.2 percent HR/FB rating above his 10.1 percent rate in his 2012-14 seasons, I think Young’s power will last. He may end with another 20 home run season — he has four in his career yet none since 2011 — though count on a similar average to Rasmus.

Like Rasmus, Young has hit up and down the lineup but could settle in at the number three spot in the lineup when the Yanks face a southpaw. For his career Young has blasted left-handed pitching to the tune of a 121 wRC+ and should be at least considered for a DFS lineup when a lefty is on the mound against the Yankees. Traditional fantasy leagues can still exploit Young’s talent, and while Young has plenty of pop against righties, facing them has hurt his rate stats. Still, for a player largely available with a favorable home park and clear playing time, Young is a decent option for home run hungry fantasy managers.