You’re in an on-base percentage league, and maybe you’ve switched that stat from average to OBP on your calculator and are totally ready to go. The thing is, some people are either working with a value sheet that was derived for batting average leagues — and even if they aren’t, we are all human, and our brains will let old habits back in once we leave our value sheet behind. In other words, there are obvious values that fall in OBP leagues, every time.

It might be a good idea to point them out.

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1. Marcus Semien will be a top ten shortstop

I lauded Semien last year and he struggled to start out the year and could not find the playing time at any infield position. In a new city and starting the year as the A’s shortstop, I like Semien to replicate his ZiPS projection of 16 homers and 12 steals. His average may not suffice, but he takes enough walks to be even more valuable in OBP leagues.
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My colleague Zach Sander kicked off bold prediction season today, which tells me it’s time to get on my high horse. Last year, I drew some fire for a lack of boldness (I disagreed then and in retrospect). Nevertheless, I will attempt to be bolder AND more accurate this season.

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Yesterday, I shared the exciting news that my project partner Jason Bulay and I have completed The Great Valuation System Test, which involved a whopping 13 fantasy baseball player valuation systems. As usual, I feel like I could have done a slightly better job of explaining our process and goal. Essentially, we wanted to determine which valuation system most accurately converts a player’s statistical line (accounting for his position or ignoring it) into a dollar value. I eagerly awaited all the data so I could run the correlations and had my fingers crossed that the system I use, the REP method, performed well, if not the best. So it’s time to unveil the results.

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As these white hot predictions have rolled across FanGraphs’ hallowed pages over the last few years, I have abstained, but I shall hold my silence no longer. I present to you my 2015 Bold Predictions, which hopefully have enough bold flavors for your pleasure.

1a. Clayton Kershaw will be the No. 1 fantasy player…
This prediction should come as no surprise after I ranked Kershaw first overall in the RotoGraphs Top 300. I don’t find this prediction to be bold, since Kershaw ranked second last year despite missing the first month of the season, but the reaction from the commentariat suggests that this prediction belongs here. Read the rest of this entry »

• Zack Wheeler has a torn UCL and will likely need Tommy John surgery.

Zack Wheeler has a torn UCL in his right elbow. Tommy John surgery is almost certainly inevitable. #Mets

— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) March 16, 2015

I went back and looked at his injury indicators and nothing sticks out from last year. The only possible issues I spotted were that he was not an established regular starter and threw hard (95 mph fastball).

Also, let me clear up one item while the main stream media goes crazy with the huge “increase” in pitcher injuries. The current trend is only with elbow injuries. As I found this past fall, days lost to pitcher injuries are transferring from the shoulder to elbow.

Days lost to shoulder injuries reached almost 7,000 in 2008. In 2014, the total days lost was under 3,000. Much of this improvement can be attributed to better exercises for the muscles in the shoulder.

So with the number of shoulder injuries down, something had to give. The number of days lost to elbow injuries went from about 5,000 days in 2008 to over 8,000 in 2014. The days lost just seem to be transferring from the shoulder to the elbow.

People are not talking at all about the time lost to shoulder injuries being down over 50%.

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Losing a young pitcher like Zack Wheeler is never an easy thing, but there are not too many teams positioned well enough to handle a season-long injury to a young starter as well as the Mets. The Mets have three top-10 prospects that could conceivably fill in for Wheeler right now, though the likelihood is that Dillon Gee is given an opportunity to eat innings in the back end of the rotation while the prospects continue to develop in the minors.
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It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.

The Kansas City Royals shocked the world last year, as they finally returned to the playoffs, and even reached the World Series. Then, they had the kind of offseason that reminded everyone why they had a 28-year playoff drought in the first place.

The Royals gave Edinson Volquez $20 million over two years. I don’t even need to make a joke, as the previous sentence is its own punchline. They also handed Alex Rios $11 million to take playing time away from younger, better players.

This piece, however, is about the infield, which is a bit of a mixed bag for fantasy purposes. Let’s dive a little deeper and see if anyone here looks like a good value for fantasy owners in 2015.

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The 2014 Reds rotation ranked third in ERA but just 23rd in WAR, which is a bit strange given that Cincinnati got more innings out of its starters than any other team. Alfredo Simon played a fairly large role in that discrepancy as he threw just shy of 200 innings with a 3.44 ERA but just 0.9 WAR. Simon’s low strikeout rate doesn’t exactly rack up WAR. If Mat Latos and/or Homer Bailey had been able to throw a full season’s worth of innings, the discrepancy surely would have been less pronounced.

The good news is that Simon will be staving off the regression monster elsewhere and Bailey will hopefully make at least 30 starts this year. The bad news is that Latos is gone and the Reds didn’t do much in the way of replacing Latos or Simon’s numbers. They’ll go with internal options, which isn’t assured to go wrong, but the back half of the rotation is iffy at best. Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday was my first normal draft of the season. It is a 12-team auction keeper league with standard deep rosters. It’s 5×5 roto, and we use OPS rather than average. We have a $310 budget. You can keep an unlimited number of players at the cost of previous draft price plus $7. Undrafted players cost $8 to keep.

After reviewing the keeper rosters, I adjusted my goal for the season from winning to acquiring as much keeper value as possible while contending. I have a few streaming tricks that should keep me within striking distance even as I optimize for next season. The best keepers are usually found in-season, but I sought to draft as many as possible.

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