My piece yesterday got me thinking a bit. Seeing the high-impact finishes of Jake Arrieta and Jacob deGrom of 16th and 37th among starters despite not even qualifying for the ERA title (162+ IP) had me marinating on Masahiro Tanaka. Are we being too cautious with him because of the partially torn UCL? On Tuesday’s episode of The Sleeper & The Bust, Eno mentioned hearing “a talent evaluator” (which is the latest version of “they say” or “sources say”) suggest that upwards of 40 percent of pitchers are working with a partially torn UCL.

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Every season, in addition to posting my standard bold predictions, I up the ante with my bold league leaders. If you thought nailing a bold prediction was tough, the bold league leaders is even more difficult! Just getting one right is worthy of celebration. Because these are bold, I automatically disqualify players I don’t personally believe should be considered bold. So I challenge myself and it typically causes me to bat .000. But, at the very least, might push you to go the extra buck on these players, which, after all, is what these bold predictions are all about.

We’ll start with the hitting league leaders in each of the five categories, split up by league.

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Slow drafts have been progressing and with the weekend fast approaching, there is no doubt more auction and snake drafts will be happening. Regardless of the format, here is the roto relevant news from yesterday:

On today’s agenda:
1. Lower your expectations in Atlanta
2. Jaime Garcia progresses
3. Quick thoughts on Matt Joyce
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Episode 208

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris discuss some Spring Training news:

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Whether it’s daily fantasy or dynasty, being able to evaluate a pitcher in a small sample can separate the top from the bottom of your league table. Results — particularly balls in play, but really any results that depend on the outcome of a plate appearance — can only go so far. Per-pitch metrics help, since there are four pitches per plate appearance on average, but if you’re talking results, you’re still cutting your sample into those moments when a player swung or put the ball in play.

And then there’s movement and velocity. We know, for example, that it takes only three starts to reliably predict fastball velocity the rest of the way, and that one start actually gives us a good idea. So maybe movements and velocities can help us evaluate young starters quickly.

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You have seen some Tout and LABR reviews for the past few weeks here on the site. We all can’t be so lucky to participate in such glorious leagues. On the other hand, we can all take part in NFBC leagues.

NFBC’s $150 NFBC Draft Champions leagues are a perfect format for me:

a) I have impending time constraints including my first child in June!

b) I didn’t have to ask my wife for permission to use our mutual bank account.

c) I was able to dwell on each pick if/when needed (8 hours to make a pick) and

d) There are no trades or free agent pick-ups once the draft is complete. This feature is my wife’s favorite, and I appreciate the preventative collusion measures. I am also much more interested in draft strategy and player projections/rankings/draft position than I am jumping on small sample sizes in-season.

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It’s bold prediction season here at RotoGraphs. By extension, it’s also sleeper and bust season. Most of my bold predictions were overwhelmingly positive, so it’s time to highlight a few hitters I avoid. I’ll follow up with pitchers at some point this week.

To be clear, I’m not necessarily saying you should avoid these guys. I’m just informing you that I avoid them.

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I think something the fantasy universe forgets too often at this time of the season is the sheer length of the season. Six months. Twenty-six weeks. And of course, 162 games. In today’s game, very few players are able to play ‘em all. Just four players were able to do so in 2014. The pitching equivalent is 34 starts and just 10 pitchers managed to reach that height last year. So there are countless guys populating the top 50 or 100 who didn’t play anywhere near the full season.

Trust me I understand why we as a fantasy community have such a sharp focus on the here and now, prioritizing players who have roles secured at this moment. After all, you absolutely can’t play 162 games or log 34 starts if you aren’t even slated to start the season with the major league club. We know many starting roles will turnover as the season goes on and we will churn our fantasy rosters week-in and week-out. With that in mind, you need to make sure you aren’t being too dogmatic about avoiding injured guys or those on the outside looking in of a starting role.

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This post continues our Depth Chart Discussions. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will continue to break them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find the Depth Chart Discussion posts gathered here.

The Blue Jays bullpen was already in a state of murkiness before the injury to Marcus Stroman cost them Aaron Sanchez earlier this month, and the team’s closer to start the season has all of six career saves to his name. Overall, Toronto’s relief corps posted the fifth-highest FIP last year, though its unheralded leader could have some sleeper potential as a late-round bargain pickup.
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I’ve been playing in auction leagues since about 2001 and believe it to be far superior to snake drafts. Why choose a draft format that immediately prevents you from acquiring players as soon as you know your draft slot isn’t number one? I want the opportunity to buy Mike Trout for $48 damn it! Okay, enough standing on my pedestal and rehashing why I think auctions are best. Let’s just talk about some random things that have popped into my head since my Tout Wars auction on Saturday.

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