2015 Bold Hitter League Leaders

Every season, in addition to posting my standard bold predictions, I up the ante with my bold league leaders. If you thought nailing a bold prediction was tough, the bold league leaders is even more difficult! Just getting one right is worthy of celebration. Because these are bold, I automatically disqualify players I don’t personally believe should be considered bold. So I challenge myself and it typically causes me to bat .000. But, at the very least, might push you to go the extra buck on these players, which, after all, is what these bold predictions are all about.

We’ll start with the hitting league leaders in each of the five categories, split up by league.

American League

Batting AveragePablo Sandoval

Sandoval should enjoy his new Fenway Park home, and as Tony Blengino put it, the park switch makes him a “happy Panda“. So that should provide a nice BABIP boost. He has posted a mark as high as .350 before, so he has that in his history. He also makes excellent contact, posting remarkably consistent strikeout rates between 13.1% and 13.5% in every full season of his career. Continued good contact plus a BABIP surge could result in a batting average well above .300.

Home RunsBrandon Moss

Just last week I boldly predicted that Moss would hit 35 homers, and that mark would tie him for the Pod projected AL lead in homers. To reach that lofty total, he’ll need to play more against lefties and not be part of a strict platoon. And hey, it’s a small sample for sure, but he actually hit better against southpaws than right-handers in 2014!

RBIHanley Ramirez

That Boston lineup figures to be quite strong, and our projected standings actually forecast the team to lead baseball in runs scored. Ramirez is set to hit clean up, behind a trio of hitters who could all post .350+ OBP marks. Obviously, staying healthy will be key here. But if he does manage to, he has a real shot at eclipsing his current career high RBI mark of 106.

RunsMookie Betts

Mike Trout has led the league in runs scored for three straight years, so anyone not named Trout is going to be bold! I decided to stick with the Red Sox theme here. It make sense to go with their leadoff hitter if they are projected to score the most runs. Betts has displayed strong on base ability, has excellent speed and even some pop. It’s exactly the combination that should end up near the top of the runs scored leaderboard. Of course, we still can’t say with 100% certainty that he’s going to be the every single day center fielder. But if he performs the way we are projecting, the Sox couldn’t possibly take him out of the lineup if winning is their goal.

Stolen BasesEverth Cabrera

It wasn’t easy to settle on a bold stolen base leader. Seemingly anyone with speed and a full-time job or strong-side platoon job didn’t seem that bold. So Cabrera it is. At the moment, he’s probably just a bench player, if he even makes the Orioles. But the calculus here is that Jonathan Schoop either loses the starting second base job due to his pathetic on base skills, or Schoop opens the year in the minors and Cabrera starts from the get-go. Cabrera also got a start in center field, which suggests that at the very least, he could be an often-used utility man. Would 400 plate appearances be enough for Cabrera to lead the league in steals? He has to prove last year was simply a fluke down speed season first, but he did swipe 44 bags in just 449 plate appearances back in 2012.

National League

Batting AverageNolan Arenado

When in doubt, pick a Rockie. Arenado batted .287 last year and now owns a .277 career average, so this would represent quite a leap. But he makes excellent contact, might have further home run upside given his batted ball distance and calls a BABIP-inflating park home. Last season he required just a below league average .294 BABIP to hit .287. It’s true that he hasn’t posted the batted ball distribution necessary for an inflated BABIP and his minor league track record doesn’t offer much hope. But that doesn’t mean he couldn’t get lucky. All he would need is a .330 BABIP and his projected average jumps to .313, which would easily lead the league in my projections. That doesn’t seem so crazy.

Home RunsKris Bryant Jorge Soler

Sure, why not. At this point, would Bryant even be considered bold? Soler has already mashed at the Major League level, albeit over a tiny sample size of just 97 plate appearances. He posted a strong batted ball distance and high average angle, but most impressively, led all of baseball in SDD, by a long shot. That means that when he got a hold of one, it was absolutely launched.

RBIMark Trumbo

Probably not that bold, but if I don’t pick a power hitter batting in the middle of the order, I have no chance whatsoever. Trumbo is set to hit clean up and because his batted ball distance actually remained stable last year, he should experience a power rebound. He’ll be batting behind A.J. Pollock and his respectable OBP and good speed and fellow RBI leader contender Paul Goldschmidt and his excellent OBP.

RunsChristian Yelich

Yelich finished fifth in the NL in runs scored this year, so call this decidedly unbold if you will. But, last year he hit lead off, while this year that’s going to be Dee Gordon’s spot, at least to open the season. So that will push Yelick into the second hold, costing him about 15-20 plate appearances. The idea here is that Gordon is at risk of posting a poor OBP and could easily get dropped to the bottom of the order, reopening up the leadoff spot for Yelich. If he does up his fly ball rate and experience a power spike, that should boost his run total as well.

Stolen BasesEric Young

It’s kind of silly to predict someone that isn’t Billy Hamilton, Dee Gordon or Ben Revere to lead the league in steals. But that’s what I’m here to do. The Braves are set to trot out an embarrassing offense and B.J. Upton’s (I’m so glad that we haven’t changed his first name to Melvin yet!) injury opened the door for Young to win the center field job until the latter’s return. But even when Upton does come back, left field certainly isn’t locked down and if Young is performing well, could keep a near full-time job. He’s still on the good side of 30 and stole 30 bases last year in just 316 plate appearances, so the speed is still there, as is the willingness to steal bases.





Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

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dte421
9 years ago

Here’s why I put no stock in these projections. You say if Arenado would hit .313 he would easily lead the league in batting average… Yet only twice in 144 years of recorded baseball history, covering 272 batting titles, has a player hit lower than .313 and won a batting title. I understand that the projections play it safe, but that kind of statement is just absolutely ridiculous.

Emcee Peepants
9 years ago
Reply to  dte421

But, we are in an era of depressed offense and last year’s NL leader only hit .319, with only 3 players topping .313. Predicting a league leader at .313 is bold, but well within the realm of possibility.

dte421
9 years ago
Reply to  Emcee Peepants

Yes, and 8 players topped it in 2013, so while it’s not impossible, it’s still VERY unlikely. It’s even more unlikely that .313 would lead the league by a wide margin.

Emcee Peepants
9 years ago
Reply to  Emcee Peepants

Absolutely ridiculous and very unlikely are 2 different things. I agree, it’s unlikely, but this is a bold prediction, so it should be unlikely. I actually think the wackier part is predicting Arenado to do it, since he never topped .300 in his 2 main minor league stints.

The Real McNulty
9 years ago
Reply to  Emcee Peepants

“Your bold predictions aren’t bold enough!”

“Ok, they’re too bold!”

Patrick
9 years ago
Reply to  dte421

These projections are for fun.
The .313 would lead in his projections, but it does not mean .313 will win the title.