It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.

It has been a whirlwind offseason for the San Diego Padres, who made blockbuster trades for a brand new, brand name outfield of Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, and Wil Myers. Between the new outfield, the free agent acquisition of James Shields, and the incumbent rotation talent, the Padres will make a play for their first postseason berth since 2006.

If they do reach the postseason, it will likely not be because of the exceptional player of their infield, which was left largely intact after a disappointing 2014 season. In fantasy, that unit is similarly unenticing, although there are a few bounce back candidates who could become fantasy relevant.
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The Steamer and I series concludes as I finish with the last starting pitcher comparisons. Today, I check in on two pitchers of whom the Steamer projections are significantly more optimistic than my Pod Projections.

As per SIERA, Zack Greinke is coming off the second best skills of his career, driven in part by a rebound in his slider usage. He’s managed to post sub-3.00 ERAs for two straight seasons now, which has made him the 10th pitcher off the board on average in NFBC drafts. James Shields hit the free agent jackpot by signing with a National League team and remaining in a pitcher friendly home park. He, too, is loved by drafters, who are nabbing him 22nd among starters in NFBC. Let’s see why Steamer and I disagree on these two fine lads.

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On Monday I took a look at pitchers that all three of Steamer, ZiPS and Mike Podhorzer’s projections like more than their ADP. Today I’ll look at pitchers that all systems like less than their ADP. I’ve also looked at hitters that the projections like more and like less. To turn the projections into ranks I used the Auction Calculator and the z-score method. Below are the three starters with the biggest difference between the projections and their ADP. Read the rest of this entry »

… if this nonsense with his agent(s?) ever clears up.

I feel like Debbie Downer from the classic Saturday Night Live sketch. I found reasons to dislike Yasmany Tomas, and now I’m here trying to find reasons to dislike Hector Olivera. It’s largely because I’m stubborn and would rather die by own fantasy baseball sword than someone else’s. But I haven’t seen any assessment of Olivera’s Cuban National Series (CNS) statistics beyond he hit an impressive .323/.407/.505 in his 10 years in Cuba, so I’ll attempt to expand on this.

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It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.

With Yu Darvish likely to miss the entire season, the Rangers are staring into the face of another lost season. In some ways, it’s liberating to know you won’t contend. Texas won’t have to worry about the shaky quality of the bullpen. They can give their pitchers an opportunity to prove themselves without focusing solely on runs allowed.

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Suppose you think a team is going to improve significantly from last year’s performance. You’re not sure exactly how they’re going to do it, but you’re reasonably confident that they will. If you happen to live in the enlightened state of Nevada or are acquainted with a sports accountant, you can bet the team’s over-under. Is there any way to translate that belief into the acquisition of an undervalued player on draft day?

In forecasting team outcomes, we always like to look at a team’s record in 1-run games in the preceding season. The Elias Sports Bureau long ago discovered that (to simplify but not distort their insight) teams that perform poorly in 1-run games in Season 1 and then have a good record in the spring training games of Season 2 significantly outperform almost everyone’s expectations during Season 2 itself. The teams with the worst 1-run records in the majors last season were the Astros (17-28) and the Reds (22-38). Is there any reason—right now, before any spring training games have been played-to think they’ll do better in 2015? Yes, we think. Read the rest of this entry »

The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

After winning both the American League MVP and Cy Young awards back in 2011, Justin Verlander followed up strongly the next season, finishing second in the Cy Young voting. But in 2013, his fastball velocity slipped for a third straight year, which drove a decline in his peripherals and resulted in his highest SIERA mark since 2008. It got even worse last season, as his velocity dipped another mile per hour, his strikeout rate fell to its lowest mark since 2006, and he couldn’t strand runners at the rate he used to, while poor defense behind him added more fuel to the fire. All told, his ERA jumped above 4.00 for just the second time of his career.

At age 32 and with a seemingly clear explanation for his recent struggles in the form of the velocity loss, it’s no surprise that fantasy owners aren’t sure what to expect from Verlander this season. On average, he’s just the 46th starting pitcher off the board in NFBC leagues at pick 186, and his pick range sits between 93 and 253. That’s quite the discount for someone with his track record who may have had just one poor season. So let’s get to the projecting.

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I think the fantasy community at large has successfully rebelled against the word “sleeper” at this point. The major issue being that there isn’t really such a thing given the vast amounts of information freely available to any and all fantasy baseball participants. And yet, when someone says the word, you still have an idea of what they mean. Sure, some have greatly diluted the meaning of the idea by tabbing guys like Nolan Arenado (ADP of 58^th overall) or Christian Yelich (84^th) as sleepers.

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Here, let me bare my flaws to you. Let me be your guinea pig. Here, laugh at me for my mistakes. I’ve made a few. Here, please let’s point and smirk at my final player on my American League LABR squad. He deserves multiple question marks and perhaps a few exclamation marks. Here, let’s learn from this. So we don’t do it again.

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It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.

The Closer:

Addison Reed

Addison Reed’s first season in Arizona went off with just a little bit of a hitch. He converted 32-of-38 saves and posted career bests in strikeout minus walk percentage (21.4%), swinging strike rate (13.1% SwStr%) and Skill-Interactive ERA (2.63 SIERA). Unfortunately, Reed lost a tick on his fastball for the third consecutive season and fell victim to some bad luck in the home run per fly ball rate department (13.9% HR/FB), which is partially to blame for the 4.25 ERA he posted in 62 appearances.
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