Rangers Bullpen: Texas Toast

It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.

With Yu Darvish likely to miss the entire season, the Rangers are staring into the face of another lost season. In some ways, it’s liberating to know you won’t contend. Texas won’t have to worry about the shaky quality of the bullpen. They can give their pitchers an opportunity to prove themselves without focusing solely on runs allowed.

The Guy

Neftali Feliz

It’s been awhile since 2011. That was the last time Feliz posted a strong season, and it included a few red flags. A contender probably wouldn’t open the season with Feliz in the ninth.

Feliz turns 27 in May, so he’s still a young pitcher. Texas should be giving him a second chance in the ninth inning, even if the experiment could fail. In his heyday, Feliz worked with a 97 mph fastball. By September of last season, he was back to averaging 96 mph. He also threw a good slider and mediocre change.

Don’t fall in love with his 1.99 ERA. He got there via an unsustainable .176 BABIP. His career BABIP is a tiny .215 in 241 innings, so clearly something is going happening. Honestly, I’m not sure how he does it. The league average pitcher BABIP runs from .290 to .300. The standard deviation is about .024 points for somebody with 100 to 250 innings according to Scott Staude. Feliz is a hair over three standard deviations better than the mean.

For now, keep an eye on his velocity. If he looks like his old self, I’m more willing to buy a portion of the BABIP suppression.

Other Guys

Tanner Scheppers
Kyuji Fujikawa
Shawn Tolleson

Scheppers pitched well in 2013, but elbow soreness derailed his 2014 campaign. He went the rest and rehab route, so there is a risk the injury will return. His once 96 mph fastball declined to 94 mph last season. His spring velocity could tip us off as to his current health.

He has a funky delivery that scouts always felt would lead to injury. The consensus was to get him to the majors before he broke down. Now that the injury bug has bitten, he might have trouble staying on the field.

The Cubs signed Fujikawa prior to the 2013 season. He promptly landed on the disabled list for Tommy John surgery after a brief stint as the team’s closer. He returned to action late last year. He showed good whiff rates with a four pitch mix. The cutter and splitter are probably his best pitches. A healthy Fujikawa is a nice sleeper for saves.

Tolleson is a former Dodgers pseudo-prospect. He landed on the radar thanks to fantastic strikeout rates from 2010 through 2012. Upon reaching the majors, he contributed useful but uninspired numbers. Projection systems expect a 3.90 ERA with about a strikeout per inning. He could get more value out of his four pitch repertoire by continuing to suppress BABIPs (.254 BABIP in 109 IP).

Additional Other Guys

Alex Claudio
Juan Oviedos
Roman Mendez
Joe Beimel
Phil Klein
Anthony Ranaudo

If there’s one area the Rangers have depth, it’s the bullpen. There are more names beyond these six that could break camp with the club, but we have to draw a line somewhere. Ranaudo will probably be used as rotation depth, so he’s unlikely to earn a bullpen role. If he does, he’ll be the long reliever.

Claudio is extremely unusual. The lefty leans on a 85 mph sinker with a potent slow change and slider. The sinker generated an 80 percent ground ball rate on contact last season (limited sample) while the offspeed pitches carried high whiff rates. He seems like a Carson Cistulli kind of guy, but I recommend ignoring him for fantasy purposes. He could rack up 10 to 15 holds.

You may recall Oviedos, aka Leo Nunez, from his days with the Marlins. He was last effective in 2011. He returned to action for the Rays in 2014 with an unimpressive performance. His fastball velocity was down two mph from his peak (92 mph). ERA estimators tab him for between a 4.50 and 5.30 ERA. Sit this one out.

Mendez and Klein debuted last year. Klein is the more interesting of the two for 2015 thanks to 12.9 percent swinging strike rate. He used his slider at a 44 percent rate. There is very little upside left in the profile.

Mendez probably has the better ceiling due to 95 mph velocity and strong pitch peripherals. He needs to tighten up his command and control if he wants to reap strikeouts. His fastball, slider, and change are sufficient to support a breakout season.

I’m sure you recall Beimel. The soft-tossing lefty is not a fantasy asset. Let’s just leave it at that.