Injuries and unanticipated performance decline are the twin banes of fantasy owners. It’s one thing if you’re reaching to the waiver wire to replace Josh Reddick. It’s another thing entirely if it’s Paul Goldschmidt going down for a couple months. Your chances to field a winning roster are hurt anytime you have to replace a key contributor from waivers.

Read the rest of this entry »

On Monday, I unveiled the xHR/FB rate equation I devised a year ago. Yesterday, I began my look back at 2014, discussing a selection of hitters whose xHR/FB rates suggest serious HR/FB rate upside this year. Today, I finish my look back, this time at the overachievers. These are the bust candidates, at least when it comes to home runs, assuming of course they sustain similar batted ball distances, average absolute angles and standard deviation of distances (SDD). Since my formula ignores home ballpark which absolutely plays a major role, I will mention it as a possible explanation for such overperformance as warranted.

Read the rest of this entry »

I’m here. I made it!

I’m extremely excited to be joining the FanGraphs team under the RotoGraphs banner. I honestly can’t recall the last day I didn’t come to FanGraphs at least once 15 times. The player pages are enough to keep the Ripken-like streak going, but the evolving and ever-improving content ensures multiple trips per day and now I get to be a part of that. Most of you, if you’re familiar with me, will know me from the Starting Pitching Guide. I started it back in 2008 on the Rotojunkie.com forums as a top 100 list and it has developed into the 384-pitcher, 123,000-word behemoth that Doug Thorburn and I released last year. We are neck-deep in the 2015 version as I type this. All the versions in between are available at paulsporer.com, too.

Read the rest of this entry »

We’ll be filling these in over the next month! You can find this guide later by looking at the Draft Tools box on the right. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.

The Boston infield practically has to hand out name tags this spring. Even the guys that are returning to their old positions are probably hoping for different results this year. There’s opportunity here in droves — with a nice home park and a lineup that could mash, the park and team effects line up well. Considering there probably isn’t a player that will cost top-50 prices in the bunch, you could call this a list of sleepers, even.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Steroids Era has passed, and with that comes a return to the laws of physicality: when you approach your mid-to-late 30s, your athletic productivity takes a sharp downturn. Need any proof? Last year, just 13 players in their age-37 season or above notched 200 or more plate appearances. Among them were the now-retired Derek Jeter, Paul Konerko and Alfonso Soriano, as well as part-time players like Reed Johnson, Jose Molina and Ichiro Suzuki. Of this bunch, only two — David Ortiz and Torii Hunter — posted positive WAR figures and were above average offensively.

Assuming for the moment that some Faustian agreement doesn’t produce a Joe Boyd-like debut this year, here are five players, 37 years and older, who could snag enough playing time to surface on the radars of standard leagues this year — unless, of course, Father Time catches up with them first.
Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I unveiled the xHR/FB rate equation I devised a year ago. So today I’ll begin my look back at 2014 and discuss a selection of hitters whose xHR/FB rates suggest serious HR/FB rate upside this year, assuming of course they sustain similar batted ball distances, average absolute angles and standard deviation of distances (SDD). Since my formula ignores home ballpark which absolutely plays a major role, I will mention it as a possible explanation for such underperformance as warranted.

Read the rest of this entry »

Over the last couple of weeks a few of my fellow writers here are FanGraphs have been going over some draft strategies. This week, I am going to step through my exact process for a draft. On Thursday night, I will be joining a few fantasy writers for a 15 team mock draft. Over the next few days, I will go through the exact process I normally use to set up for a draft. If one of the other drafters steals borrows my info, fine. This is actually more a way to show you my process for drafts.

First off, I will be following the procedure I set out last season in this three part series. There is quite a few good links in those articles for the procedures I use.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last week I ran the 2015 Steamer projections for starting pitchers through Zach Sanders’ Fantasy Value Above Replacement system and compared them to early NFBC ADP data to identify some possible bust candidates. Today we’ll look at some sleeper candidates.

Tony Cingrani, Cincinnati Reds

After an impressive 100-ish inning debut in 2013, Cingrani struggled mightily last year. His season ended in mid-June after he was sent to the minors to work on his command, and he then revealed he had been dealing with a shoulder issue. Apparently he’s expected to come to Spring Training healthy and is a likely candidate for a rotation spot, but drafters aren’t buying a bounce back as his ADP among starters is 97. But Steamer does see a bounce back as he comes in 46th in the projection rankings. Read the rest of this entry »

Next Saturday at 11:59 pm ET is the ottoneu keeper deadline. It’s time to complete your trades and trim the fat from your roster. If you’ve followed my advice, you haven’t cut anybody since the end of the season. You can start making those moves soon.

Read the rest of this entry »