The Old Ballgame: A Look at 2015’s Oldest Hitters

The Steroids Era has passed, and with that comes a return to the laws of physicality: when you approach your mid-to-late 30s, your athletic productivity takes a sharp downturn. Need any proof? Last year, just 13 players in their age-37 season or above notched 200 or more plate appearances. Among them were the now-retired Derek Jeter, Paul Konerko and Alfonso Soriano, as well as part-time players like Reed Johnson, Jose Molina and Ichiro Suzuki. Of this bunch, only two — David Ortiz and Torii Hunter — posted positive WAR figures and were above average offensively.

Assuming for the moment that some Faustian agreement doesn’t produce a Joe Boyd-like debut this year, here are five players, 37 years and older, who could snag enough playing time to surface on the radars of standard leagues this year — unless, of course, Father Time catches up with them first.

David Ortiz / DH / Boston Red Sox

	PA	HR	RBI	RUNS	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	BABIP	wRC+
2014 season	602	35	104	59	0	12.5	15.8	.263	.355	.517	.256	135
2015 Steamer	602	26	91	84	1	12.1	16.5	.277	.366	.496	.295	134

The dean of the aging ballplayers’ club, Ortiz kept on chugging along in his age-38 season: his .255 ISO ranked sixth among qualified hitters last year, and he was one of only seven players to reach the 30-homer/100-RBI plateau. Big Papi also spread out his production; he hammered at least five home runs in each month, and, thanks in part to a torrid August, he was stronger in the second half (.391 wOBA) than in the first (.358). His FB% pushed into the top 10 among qualified hitters, and his batted ball distance was right in line with that of his recent seasons.

Ortiz remains remarkably durable at this stage of his career, even considering the fact that he doesn’t play the field. With the exception of 2012, when he was limited to 90 games due to an Achilles’ tendon injury, he’s exceeded 600 plate appearances each year since 2009, and would have led the Red Sox in games played in 2014 had Xander Bogaerts — Ortiz’s junior by 17 years — not edged him out by two games.

Of course, Ortiz is going to have to fade eventually. Those looking for warning signs might find them in a strikeout rate that was his highest in five years; while his SwStr% and Contact% were better than his norms, his 30.2 O-Swing% was easily the highest of his career. A drop in his line drives sunk his BABIP to its lowest level since 2001, and his ISO against offspeed pitches, which was an excellent .257 entering the season, collapsed by nearly 100 points. He also scored just 59 runs; as Mike Podhorzer noticed, when one subtracts the 35 times he drove in himself via the long ball, that means his teammates plated him on just 24 occasions. The good news is that the Red Sox’ retooled offense promises to change that, as well as provide the slugger with more lineup protection than he received last year.

In an excellent piece for The Boston Globe the other day, Paul Swydan laid out the grim facts concerning age-39 sluggers: only 55 such players have even posted qualifying seasons since 1871, and of those, just 13 were able to produce ISOs above .200. Undeterred, Steamer and the fans are simpatico in their belief that Papi will provide fantasy owners with another workhorse season, and why not? After all, Papi has done little in recent years to make us think otherwise. It’s just maddeningly frustrating to expect continued elite production from a guy who, were he almost any other player in the post-Steroids Era, would be considered on the cusp of retirement.

Torii Hunter / OF / Minnesota Twins

	PA	HR	RBI	RUNS	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	BABIP	wRC+
2014 season	586	17	83	71	4	3.9	15.2	.286	.319	.446	.311	113
2015 Steamer	614	15	69	73	4	5.3	18.2	.284	.328	.427	.329	113

Speaking of players who refuse to believe that the late 30s must translate to mediocre production, Hunter, who turns 40 in July, is also coming off a fine season. Really, it’s been a parade of fine seasons for the outfielder in the second half of his career: since his age-32 year in 2008, Hunter has averaged 20 home runs, 86 RBIs, 80 runs and a .289/.345/.460 slash line, making the all-star team three times. Sure, he’s no longer the 20-steals threat he once was, and the home runs are down a bit, but he’s been able to stay on the field, appearing in less than 140 games just once (2009) in that seven-year span.

That said, there were some ominous declines in 2014. His .335 wOBA was his lowest in more than a decade, and in a season in which he saw the fewest pitches per plate appearance of his career, his 3.9% walk rate was seventh lowest in baseball. In November, Chris Cwik wrote about Hunter’s increasing aggressiveness as he’s gotten older, taking note of a jump in his O-Swing% over the past three seasons, though he’s still been able to put the bat on the ball, and finished with the lowest strikeout rate of his career.

It could be interesting to see how his playing time shapes up now that he’s back on the Twins. His arrival shifts Oswaldo Arcia to left field, with Aaron Hicks primed for another chance to prove himself in center, with super prospect Byron Buxton waiting in the wings. There was a time, of course, when having Hunter in the outfield was a good thing, but those days are behind him; his -20.1 UZR/150 last year was fourth lowest among qualified outfielders. On another team he could DH, but that spot is spoken for as the team looks to find playing time for both Joe Mauer and Kennys Vargas. Moving to Target Field isn’t going to boost his offense any, either.

Then again, the team isn’t paying him $10.5 million to ride the pine, and the Twins aren’t entering 2015 with any serious postseason aspirations, so he’ll certainly have right field to himself as the season dawns. Steamer and the fans are on the same page in regard to Hunter’s season, projecting him to remain a slightly above average player despite a drop in home runs, and even if he’s no longer the front-line talent he once was, he should still be a nice No. 4 outfielder in most leagues.

Marlon Byrd / OF / Cincinnati Reds

	PA	HR	RBI	RUNS	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	BABIP	wRC+
2014 season	637	25	85	71	3	5.5	29	.264	.312	.445	.341	109
2015 Steamer	550	17	63	55	3	5.5	27.8	.245	.294	.400	.314	91

Byrd is the spring chicken of this group, having turned 37 in August, and he’s coming off a year in which he finished 28th among outfielders, according to Zach Sanders’ end of the season rankings, placing him above the likes of Brett Gardner, Ryan Braun, Kole Calhoun and Jason Heyward. At first glance, his 2014 campaign looks like a carbon copy of his pseudo-breakout season in 2013 when he bashed 24 homers, knocked in 88, scored 75 times and compiled a .291/.336/.511 slash line. But, alas, the fine print rears its ugly head: his 16.5% whiff rate was tied with Chris Carter for baseball’s worst, his strikeout rate zoomed to the top 10 among qualified hitters and his batting average, OBP and ISO fell significantly.

In July, Jeff Sullivan took note of the changes in Byrd’s swing and his general approach at the plate, explaining how his legitimacy as a power hitter is due in part to his trading ground balls for more fly balls. That’s good news to owners looking to pad their power categories, and one has to like the move to Great American Bandbox Ballpark, which, as far as home runs were concerned, was the second-most favorable venue to right-handed hitters last year. But the change in his batted ball profile means that the nearly 30-point drop in his average between 2013 and 2014 is for real, and hints than the .347 BABIP he posted between the two seasons will fall. Steamer and the fans forecast about 18 home runs and 65 RBIs, and I think that’s a reasonable baseline expectation for his 2015 season, with the upshot that he could do more damage if the Reds’ lineup rebounds from its dreary 2014 performance. Just beware an average that could very well sink to the .240-.250 range.

Carlos Beltran / OF / New York Yankees

	PA	HR	RBI	RUNS	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	BABIP	wRC+
2014 season	449	15	49	46	3	8.2	17.8	.233	.301	.402	.252	95
2015 Steamer	460	17	58	56	3	8.3	18.4	.260	.324	.438	.287	112

Finally, we have a guy in his late 30s who is showing signs of age here. Beltran, who turns 38 in late April, was limited to 109 games due to a bone spur in his right elbow, and when he was on the field, the results weren’t pretty: a .233/.301/.402 slash line coupled with his lowest wRC+ since the Clinton administration. He was particularly helpless from the right side of the plate, hitting .196 in 152 plate appearances. This being Beltran, one shouldn’t write him off: he did smack 15 home runs (11 of which were at the cozy Yankee Stadium confines), made contact at a high rate and maintained a batted ball distance in line with his recent seasons.

Should the Yankees have let him have surgery when he first noticed the injury in May? The front office now says yes, and for a guy who logged full seasons in 2012 and 2013, it’s probably too soon to write him off. Still, the Yankees aren’t taking any chances; Chris Young and Garrett Jones can spot him in right field, and he can fight for at-bats at DH, provided that Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez don’t hog them all. Neither Steamer or the fans see Beltran suiting up for more than three-quarters of a season, but they both believe he can belt 17 homers with a .260 average. Beltran’s fragility might not make him a dependable commodity in standard leagues, but he should still be able to help owners in deeper mixed formats next year, especially if he’s drafted at a discount.

Alex Rodriguez / 3B / New York Yankees

	PA	HR	RBI	RUNS	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	BABIP	wRC+
2015 Steamer	410	12	45	45	5	9.5	24.1	.235	.317	.382	.288	96

No, I couldn’t resist, even if just the attempt to speculate on what A-Rod is going to produce in 2015 feels like a fool’s errand. But hey, he is fifth all time in home runs, third base isn’t the deepest position and besides, I get too much enjoyment torturing reminding Yankees fans about the albatross that long ago became Rodriguez (that’s, ahem, three more years and $61 million remaining on that contract).

On a more serious note, however, A-Rod has no clear role on the 2015 Yankees: third baseman Chase Headley is locked into a newly-minted four-year deal, Mark Teixeira and Garrett Jones will log most of the innings at first base and, as usual, the Yankees will be among the league leaders in designated hitters (see above), limiting Rodriguez’s playing time opportunities. The front office could not be any less opaque in its loathing of A-Rod, and 2015 will be the latest episode in the Yankees’ desperate efforts to find some way of voiding their commitment to him. Even if he were to play, he’ll be turning 40 in July, he’s now had surgery on both hips, and, it need not be said, he hasn’t played ball since 2013. But … he did produce a 113 wRC+ in 44 games two years ago, Yankee Stadium remains a fertile offensive environment and he is, after all, one of the game’s most accomplished players. We’ll see how things go in spring training, but if A-Rod finds his way into the lineup, he’ll deserve looks in all AL-only formats and probably a few mixed ones as well.