Archive for January, 2015

Sample Draft Prep (Part 2)

Well, it is finally time to move on and show how I finish setting up for a draft (Part 1). I was hoping the following article was going to be in two parts and have a little more detail and polish. Instead I am have been dealing with a fan error on my computer and a pile of oil under my car. Neither is really resolved. So with a borrowed computer, I will step through the rest of my procedure. Let me know if you have any questions.

Note: For reference, here is my spreadsheet I used to get the initial SGP values and has the rest of the sheets referenced in this article.

Read the rest of this entry »


Top 5 Prospects for 2015: Baltimore Orioles

This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshman contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.

In a Nutshell: Pitching should be the strength of the Orioles’ freshman class of 2015, with no fewer than six pitchers nearly ready to take a big bite out of The Show. The more advanced hitters in the system don’t have huge ceilings but they could develop into solid complementary players.

The Top 5 Freshmen for 2015

1. Dylan Bundy, RHP: Bundy’s meteoric rise through the minors was halted by Tommy John surgery and he missed the entire 2013 season. The 22-year-old right-hander returned to the mound in 2014 but appeared in just nine games. He’ll hopefully enter 2015 with no restrictions and open the year in Double-A. If his elbow appears sound, and his command returns, he could be a solid contributor in Baltimore during the second half of the year. He still has top-of-the-rotation potential.

Read the rest of this entry »


Players Steamer and I Like More Than You Do

Steamer and I are good friends. It’s true – even though I don’t know Steamer’s gender, Steamer isn’t upset. We don’t always agree – often, we disagree – but that’s part of what keeps the fire alive.

Yesterday, I wrote about a couple of players whom I like more than the crowd does and, because of injuries, a lot or a little more than Steamer does. Brett Talley has blogged this month about some sleepers and busts derived from values calculated based on Steamer projections, and one of those entries is on sleeper position players, kind of an All-Sleeper Team.

To build on those things a little, and to focus on the good times Steamer and I have had, I cherry-picked from my spreadsheet of values some other position players whom Steamer projections suggest are sleepers or undervalued compared to early ADPs. I’d like them like quite a bit at their prices and would highlight them as probable targets.

Read the rest of this entry »


Lessons From A Mock

The first mock draft of the season is always the most informative. The nice thing about being a fantasy writer is accessibility to expert mocks where everybody involved plays to (fake) win. Yesterday, I participated in Howard Bender’s Mock Draft Army. It was a 15-team, 23-round snake draft with no bench. The imaginary categories are standard 5×5.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Tampa Outfield: Another Youth Movement

It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.

With their recent dedication to platoons and positional flexibility, the Rays have never really been easy to recognize in the outfield. But that is especially true entering 2015. Understated sometimes-outfield star Ben Zobrist is now in Oakland. Elite prospect Wil Myers is in San Diego. Matt Joyce is in Los Angeles. What’s left in Tampa is a collection of young outfielders who are likely more valuable in real life than in fantasy. However, one of those players offers a bit more fantasy value than you might expect.
Read the rest of this entry »


ESPN Home Run Tracker Analysis: The Downsiders

Two years ago, I conducted an exhaustive study of ESPN Home Run Tracker data. At that time, it was the primary tool I used to validate a batter’s power, before we got into the sexy new batted ball distance, and then combined that with SDD and angle. The short story is I found that hitters with an unusually high percentage of “Just Enough” (JE) homers saw their HR/FB rates decline the following year, significantly more than the rest of the player population. On the other hand, those who hit a high percentage of “No Doubt” (ND) homers maintained their HR/FB rate much better than the rest of the group.

Read the rest of this entry »


Finding Value At Third Base

The faces at third base have lost a rather big one, literally and figuratively, in a guy named Miggy. Miguel Cabrera was the consensus #1 or #2 overall pick in 2014 no doubt because of his awesomeness but also because his third base eligibility made him, well, awesomer as Marshawn Lynch might say. Out is Miggy, but in is Carlos Santana and…Chris Davis? Who knew. Regardless, even in the wackiest of formats, you’re likely going to need yourself a third baseman, and since everyone loves a bargain, I’m going to toss a few names out there for you to target.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Toronto Outfield: Will Pompey Erupt With Production?

It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.

The Toronto Blue Jays held on to just one outfield starter from last year’s opening day lineup, but when that person is Jose Bautista, the Jays still have some outfield production. The park plays up power — especially right-handed power — however outside of Bautista, don’t count on too many home runs. Rather than the long ball, expect speed from the Jays mostly new outfield.
Read the rest of this entry »


The Rangers Infield: Jokers to the Right

The infield is definitely the strength of the current roster the Rangers have assembled. We have them projected for 32.2 WAR, and their main infielders, counting projected platoons at catcher and second base, account for 14.9 in projected WAR. That’s about 46% for those of you without a calculator handy. But despite being such a strength, the positions on the right side of the infield are wild cards. Read the rest of this entry »


A Couple of Players Steamer Hurts Because They Were Hurt

Steamer isn’t entirely to blame. I doubt he hurt them on purpose. I’m sure he’s a nice guy. He’s smart. He knows a lot about buckets of baseball players and learns more about them every year. I apologize, in fact, because I shouldn’t assume that Steamer is male. Based on Steamer’s intelligence and propensity to learn, it’s likelier to be a dudette.

Steamer projections are good and can save you a ton of time. What they can’t be is perfect, or even close to it. That’s good, because if they or other projections systems could be, then fantasy baseball leagues would probably be very boring. As a result, though, especially if you use Steamer projections for your rankings, you have to figure out which players about whom Steamer isn’t closer to 100% informed.

Read the rest of this entry »