The ottoneu off-season is well underway and I know many leagues have been wildly active, making the Padres and Dodgers look dull in comparison.

My leagues, however, have had slow developing trade markets, so rather than being able to report on what I’ve done, I am instead going to provide a list of players, by position, who I am targeting (or would be, if I had a need) in trade talks. For good measure, I’ll add in a player I am trying to trade away, too (or would be, if I owned him). We’ll hit the infield today and I will follow up with the OF and pitchers.

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Free Pitcher X! It’s a chant often heard when a pitcher with a starter’s arsenal who was a starter in the minors gets banished to the bullpen. This time around, those chants were directed toward Carlos Martinez. A starter throughout his minor league career, Martinez has started just eight games for the Cardinals, versus 70 relief appearances. It seemingly wasn’t due to the Cardinals organization believing he lacked the stuff or stamina to succeed as a starter. Instead, the team was just overloaded with rotation options and rather than keep Martinez in the minors, why not allow him to contribute at the Major League level? It’s what happened to Trevor Rosenthal, but his bullpen dominance ensured that he has found a home there. With a rotation opening, Martinez now appears to be the favorite for the team’s fifth starter job.

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Since I released my initial, flawed roto rankings on Tuesday, we’ve been discussing my most unusual choices. Wednesday was Carlos Carrasco day, and yesterday was Adam Jones‘ turn to shine (in the sense that he was a featured part of the article).  Today I’ll focus on highlighting a class of player who could be misrepresented. You may not believe it, but I haven’t conducted advanced analysis on every player. Shocking, I know. While I have an idea of an embarrassing quantity of player values, some of those are based more upon impression than science or scouting.

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On Tuesday, I released my very preliminary rankings for the 2015 draft season. Things will change – really, they will. Until then, we’re left with some odd observations to discuss. I acknowledged my uber-bullish ranking of Carlos Carrasco on Little Christmas, and my bearish ranking of Adam Jones shall provide the content for normal Christmas. Enjoy.

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Of course it isn’t really the night before draft day, but I wanted to get something to go with the holiday season.

Twas the night before draft day and with all my rankings
I knew I would win, and take all the bankings.
The spreadsheets were loaded in my nerd lair
With a budget plus knowledge, I was fully prepared

My prospects and sleepers in bold and high-lighted
My mantra, “Trust the process!” had me delighted
An IPA in one hand, my mouse in the other
The draft began, names flying one after another
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I bared my moderately flawed initial fantasy rankings for public consumption yesterday. Perhaps the most divisive selection is Carlos Carrasco as the fourth ranked starting pitcher.

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The San Diego Padres have probably created more buzz than any other Major League Baseball team this offseason. New GM A.J. Preller added to his club a few position players who are pretty good in fantasy baseball terms – a couple of them really good, a couple of them who could be (but could also not be). The change in home venue for each doesn’t really affect his projection on offense negatively, either. The new guys all used to play in pretty pitcher-friendly yards.

A cool fantasy baseball thing related to the new guys’ pitcher-friendly yard, Petco Park, is that it has long helped its team to be a sort of fantasy goldmine. When fantasy baseball players search for pitching sleepers and fliers, they usually check San Diego’s roster for youngsters, retreads, and anyone else the Friars might give a shot that year. Petco Park has always had good park factors for hurlers, and the club’s coaching staffs (latest edition led by manager Bud Black and pitching coach Darren Balsley) have good reputations, too.

Now, :-(. The source of the Padres’ newfound buzz will make the cool fantasy baseball thing less cool. Perhaps a lot less.

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Remember last week when I complained about the value of fantasy rankings? Specifically, I said I hate them because they represent a backwards approach to roster construction. I readily admit that the frontwards approach, which can be thought of as “know and account for everything,” doesn’t really combine with how the human brain works. That’s why we so readily adopt rankings.

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Coming into 2014, Ian Kennedy was not exactly in great demand in fantasy, which figures, since for a guy whose major league tenure began in the shadows of Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain, being underrated is nothing new for him. That’s not to say he wasn’t borderline dreadful 2013, or that he didn’t deserve his 70 ADP among starting pitchers back in March.

But as he’s never approached the highs of his breakout 2011 season, in which he posted a 4.9 WAR and finished fourth in that year’s NL Cy Young balloting, an air of disappointment has clung to Kennedy, despite what’s been, at least overall, a very solid run as a major league starter.

That’s why it was nice to see him bounce back this year with what may have been his best season yet, as he finished 47th among starting pitchers, according to Zach Sanders’ end of the season rankings.
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In many different ways, Jon Niese is average. But when it comes to fantasy, average is not very attractive. Elite needs to be valued more highly. This sort of realization has repercussions for leagues of any sort and size.

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