My Preliminary Fantasy Rankings By Position

Remember last week when I complained about the value of fantasy rankings? Specifically, I said I hate them because they represent a backwards approach to roster construction. I readily admit that the frontwards approach, which can be thought of as “know and account for everything,” doesn’t really combine with how the human brain works. That’s why we so readily adopt rankings.

I wrote that article in part because I was tasked with ranking players by position for another site. I have completed said rankings, which you can access at the conclusion of this article.

“Very preliminary” is how I would describe these rankings if one were to ask for comment (or if somebody asked me to inject some Cistullian verse into my content). I’ll take the remaining three days of this goofy holiday week to highlight a few wonky rankings. A Christmas article depends upon me waking up sufficiently early. Before I leave you with another excessively short post, let’s discuss my pseudo-scientific methodology to form the rankings.

Methodology

For position players, I used Steamer projections because a). they’re available in exportable format, and b). I lost interesting in doing my own projections years ago. Specifically, I sorted by the Offense category, which is sort of like sorting by wRC+, which is sort of stupid for fantasy rankings. I could have easily done Z-Scores, which is not stupid. I didn’t put in the effort because I like to combine Steamer and ZiPS, which isn’t an option yet.

I did not stop there of course. After pressing “sort” I used my own marginal intellect to consider playing time, roster considerations, and other factors that affect a player’s 5×5 value. For example, you will find Joe Mauer  ranked 16th among catchers whereas his Steamer value has him in third. I’m not a senseless automaton, I am capable of observing that Mauer is liable to provide very little 5×5 value with his Carlos Ruizian power. Generally, I favored players who project to play a full season and hit for power. These are based on my personal preferences. (It’s since been pointed out that Mauer will not qualify as a catcher in 2015).

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My methodology for starting pitchers was a little more vigorous. Steamer doesn’t output K% or BB%, but it does include K/9 and BB/9. I strongly prefer using K%-BB% as an evaluative stat. However, since I only had an inexact method of calculating batters faced (WHIP times innings plus number of outs is one such way), I settled for K/BB. Then I decided to divide K/BB by FIP for no reason I can readily discern. What resulted is some kind of score in which 1.9 is Clayton Kershaw, 0.75 is a roughly average pitcher, and 0.23 is Erik Johnson.

From there, I combined my senseless math with my own impressions to form my lists. You may be interested in the fourth and 19th ranked starting pitchers as evidence that said rankings are, indeed, “very preliminary.”

Honestly, I was quite tired of ranking players by the time I got to the relievers. I just plopped my internalized impressions on a page. Steamer isn’t helpful with relievers anyway since all “closers” will save 28 games while setup men will notch six saves.

The Rankings

You may visit this Google doc to view my rankings. I will not deign to immortalize this iteration of ranks on this website. Have I mentioned they are preliminary? Very much so, in fact.

PS – apologies to those of you who are blocked from Google docs at work. I suggest you find a less fascist employer!





You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

86 Comments
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pistolpete7551
11 years ago

I love looking at rankings, so thanks for the post. I really have to question Adam Jones as OF #21 behind guys like Steve Pearce and Kole Calhoun and Carlos Carrasco as SP #4 in front of guys like Strasburg, Sale and Bumgarner. That’s unconscionable IMO. Otherwise, thanks for the sheet

Ray
11 years ago
Reply to  pistolpete7551

agree with Pete. I am surprised at the Kemp ranking at 35. I don’t see his numbers falling all that much due to the move to Petco.
Carrasco at #4 was a shocker as well. Look forward to your piece on him tomorrow.

plasmaj
11 years ago

Is there a bug in your formula, or do you just love Carrasco, and manually moved him to #4?
Looking at Steamer, using your methodology, I get:
(K/9)/(BB/9)/FIP

Strasburg: (9.78)/(2.27)/2.87 = 1.50
Carrasco: (8.58)/(2.61)/3.30 = 1.00

plasmaj
11 years ago
Reply to  Brad Johnson

interesting, but seems a little unfair. I don’t have a particular fondness for Strasburg, just choosing him as an example. Even last year, he had a better BB/9 and K/9 than Carrasco. Carrasco did have better ratios in the 2nd half but not by much. Considering that Carrasco only beat him slightly in just half a season, but Strasburg has a much longer track record of a high level of performance, I can’t imagine choosing Carrasco so high.

Spa City
11 years ago

I love the placement of Carlos Carrasco so high among SP. I acquired Carrasco ($6) and Stroman ($7) – for – Justin Upton ($35), Steve Cishek ($7), Jon Singleton ($7) and Jose Peraza ($2), and I was not sure whether I was over-valuing Carrasco and Stroman.

Based on your rankings, I am now satisfied that a person with much more knowledge than I shares my confidence in Carrasco and Stroman.

Stuck in a slump
11 years ago

For your 3B rankings, do you see much separation between #10 and #15? Arenado feels too low, but if that cluster is pretty much equal, then it makes more sense. Personally, I think Arenado should be about as good as Sandoval, and I’m a little skeptical of Harrison, but his flexibility makes it more understandable that he would get some sort of boost.

Kevin
11 years ago

You seem to be pretty low on Duda. Any particular reason why?

MustBunique
11 years ago
Reply to  Brad Johnson

Hard to project a low # of HR for Duda with the high 40’s% FB rate. Even with a conservative HR/FB rate Duda should be higher than 27th.

By the way, I know you must hate getting a lot of negative comments, so overall I think the rankings look great and thanks very much for sharing them so early. This must have taken a lot of time and effort.

Patrick
11 years ago

SS gets really shallow really quick. I can wait for the Jones article. That ranking was a surprise.

SS is really really shallow.

Ray
11 years ago
Reply to  Brad Johnson

Jones – I recall similar sentiment from other industry writers last year, but Jones was Jones once again in 2014.

Patrick
11 years ago
Reply to  Patrick

I understand Jones always has outperformed his underlying stats, but when he has been so consistent I think you have to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Fact of the day:
He is the only MLB player ever to hit in the 280s for 5 straight years.

Cody
11 years ago

Could you elaborate why it is sort of stupid to order by wRC+? I use it and wOBA to target players for my fantasy team. My team includes the likes of Buster Posey, Joey Votto, Ben Zobrist, Josh Donaldson, Jose Reyes, Matt Holliday, Yasiel Puig, Jayson Werth, and Shin-Soo Choo who all typically rank near the top of of wRC+.

My 16 team, 30 man rosters head-to-head league does include XBH and BB in addition to the five standard categories, so maybe it is more useful for that sort of league?

steve
11 years ago
Reply to  Cody

wRC+ is park and league adjusted. So you don’t care about that for fantasy.

Cody
11 years ago
Reply to  Cody

I appreciate the responses.

Mike c
11 years ago
Reply to  Cody

Please stop giving information to this guy as I want to beat him again this year.

Cody
11 years ago
Reply to  Cody

It won’t happen again.

drewcorbMember since 2020
11 years ago

I don’t think Mauer played a single game at catcher last season, so he probably won’t be eligible there in most formats. Also, isn’t Ken Giles in the running to close for Philly? He might be someone worth keeping an eye on for RP.

Stuck in a slump
11 years ago

Quick question about Moss: You seem a little low on him. Are you worried about his hip? I kind of discount it with the upside of his move to CLE from OAK.

Mark
11 years ago

What were you using as a position eligibility cutoff? It may be a reason why 1B seems so deep.

Mark
11 years ago
Reply to  Brad Johnson

That’s what I figured. Leagues with 20 game cutoffs will thin the herds at 1B.

Mr Hogg
11 years ago
Reply to  Brad Johnson

Then there are a bunch of players in your first cut who aren’t going to qualify at positions listed or mentioned next year … e.g. you have Gyorko as 2B-3B on the 2B list but he didn’t actually get into 5 games at 3B in 2014

jon
11 years ago

If you sort by wRC doesn’t that unfairly punish Coors field players? Corey Dickerson ranks 7th among outfielders in OPS but falls all the way to 24th in your rankings when you start using weighted metrics. I agree with the rankings for offensive ability, but when it comes to fantasy I’ll gladly take the unfair Coors advantage!

Stuck in a slump
11 years ago

Curious as to why you’re so high on Choo, but so low on CarGo. Shouldn’t CarGo put up similar/better numbers than Choo as long as he can play 2/3 of a season?

Stuck in a slump
11 years ago

This is what I get for talking and typing at the same time. Long = low

Stuck in a slump
11 years ago
Reply to  Brad Johnson

Awesome, thanks for taking the time and answering our questions, it’s been a big help!

Jason B
11 years ago

I feel like I’m seeing ever-so-slight shadings on certain players (like 19th to 21st at SS appear to be slightly shaded). Am I developing cataracts at an alarming age, or are you saying those guys are essentially in the same tier and are basically interchangeable?

(It can be both things.)

Stuck in a slump
11 years ago

Assuming Lindor plays half a season, where would you rank him within the SS’s?

Ray
11 years ago

Miggy at 3b? I am not sure he played there all last season.

Nick
11 years ago
Reply to  Ray

He played 10 games at 3b last season.

Andrew
11 years ago

Thanks for this rankings, Brad. I’d like to hear your thoughts on Starling Marte. I can’t see him being worse than the likes of Cain, Arcia, and an unknown like Castillo in fantasy.

Ray
11 years ago
Reply to  Brad Johnson

Marte hit 12 HRs in 2013 and 13 in 2014, so he SHOULD hit 14 HRs in 2015.

Boris Yeltsin
11 years ago
Reply to  Brad Johnson

FWIW, Marte had 8 HRs in 187 ABs in a very, very good second half. It may of course be SSS, but there’s a non-0 chance it indicates a new level.

Belle of the League
11 years ago

As the owner of Miggy, Rendon, Abreu, Stanton, Werth, Yelich, Calhoun…and some kids, Phat Al Pujols, and Nellie Cruz as backups as the cliche goes, “From your mouth to God’s ears”. Now to figure out how to plug that black hole at SS.
The projections/rankings based on a projection system I developed for the custom scoring in our league resulted in somewhat similar rankings for position players. It’s an “Ottoneu light” points league.
Definitely variations for pitchers where wins, etc. aren’t factors.

Mcf1417
11 years ago

I understand not being too high on Gio, but I don’t see how he can be that low. Having him behind the likes of Bartolo Colon seems odd.

mcf1417
11 years ago
Reply to  Mcf1417

Although admittedly, I guess my point of contention should be with the methodology.

IUPAC
11 years ago

Thanks for putting in the work!

Scott
11 years ago

I see you don’t imagine a huge fall for JD Martinez. Not worried about an adjustment from pitchers considering his very poor plate discipline, or a big drop in BABIP (it was 389) effecting his overall numbers?

He is a keeper option for me, but didnt view him as much of one until I checked these ranks.

Scott
11 years ago
Reply to  Brad Johnson

So basically the same power as last year if you give him 600 abs. I like it, now leaning towards keeping for $5.

Dave P
11 years ago
Reply to  Brad Johnson

Wow….if he hits over .270 or slugs over .500, I’ll buy you something modestly-priced.

Pat's Bat
11 years ago

Your table is ugly and hurts my eyes. I realize you are trying to make some sort of statement here, but can you at least put it in some kind of format we actually want to see? Isn’t that what they are underpaying you for?

Also, why are you so low on Wieters? Is it the risk that he will miss a month or so?

Matt
11 years ago
Reply to  Pat's Bat

Put it into your own spreadsheet, Diva.

Gordy
11 years ago

I can never understand why analysts hate ratings. After all, that why we dumb fans read you! Methodoogy is great but it is a means to an end, ratings, ratings, and ratings.. All that matters

Brandon Rapp
11 years ago

I didn’t see Brock Holt on your list for 3b. Where we he slot if you added him?

Brandon Rapp
11 years ago

Also. How does Kang signing with the Pirates affect his and Jody Mercer’s ranking.

Jeremy
11 years ago

I’m in a 12 team 5×5 league (2 catcher) and can keep 6 players. I have planned on keeping $1 Arrieta, $1 Carrasco, $12 Hamels, $5 A Wood and $10 Gomez. I am struggling with the last spot between $15 Wainwright, $8 Frazier, $1 Wieters and $1 Calhoun. Any insight?

BenFranklin17
11 years ago
Reply to  Jeremy

Frazier at $8 is a solid value given that 3B is so weak

Bobby Mueller
11 years ago

Tanaka at #24. How many innings are you expecting from him?

JackS
11 years ago

Where would Marcus Semien fall in as a shortstop? Got him for $1 in AL only roto league, 12 teams

Bob McDoulett
11 years ago

Curious about Kennys Vargas, he should be a power source for the Twins at 1B or DH.
Should he be on the list?

harrisonpd
11 years ago

Interesting. Dayan Viciedo in OF rankings, but no Michael Saunders? In that Blue Jays lineup?

God Damn Jim Price
11 years ago

I’m assuming there is a typo for Rank 23 for RPs that is supposed to say “Joe Nathan Papelbon”?

RotoholicMember since 2016
11 years ago

What type of league are these rankings to be used for? If it’s for 5×5, it would have taken all of 30 seconds to sue z-scores to rank them all by actual value once you had the projection set, rather than the bizarre method you actually used. Was there a reason to do it this way other than simply being different or lazy?

RotoholicMember since 2016
11 years ago
Reply to  Brad Johnson

(x – average)/stdev of a column of counting stats.

You only have to write that once and then drag it over to fill the other 9 columns.

For stats where lower is better like ERA and WHIP (after they are converted to counting stats like runs saved and walks+hits saved, of course) you simply switch the sign on the numerator so it becomes (-x + average)/stdev

Sum up the z-score for each stat, for each player, and you get the ZSum which is the value. Seriously, it’s like 30 seconds start to finish. I use Excel and not Calc but I assume it’s the same process since these are only basic formulas.

noseeum
11 years ago

Kudos to the author for taking the time for so many responses in the comments. Would love to see more and more of this from all of the Fangraphs authors. You often get one or two but rarely this many. It really helps to keep the comments productive and adds so much more to the article.

Thanks Brad!