My Preliminary Fantasy Rankings By Position
Remember last week when I complained about the value of fantasy rankings? Specifically, I said I hate them because they represent a backwards approach to roster construction. I readily admit that the frontwards approach, which can be thought of as “know and account for everything,” doesn’t really combine with how the human brain works. That’s why we so readily adopt rankings.
I wrote that article in part because I was tasked with ranking players by position for another site. I have completed said rankings, which you can access at the conclusion of this article.
“Very preliminary” is how I would describe these rankings if one were to ask for comment (or if somebody asked me to inject some Cistullian verse into my content). I’ll take the remaining three days of this goofy holiday week to highlight a few wonky rankings. A Christmas article depends upon me waking up sufficiently early. Before I leave you with another excessively short post, let’s discuss my pseudo-scientific methodology to form the rankings.
Methodology
For position players, I used Steamer projections because a). they’re available in exportable format, and b). I lost interesting in doing my own projections years ago. Specifically, I sorted by the Offense category, which is sort of like sorting by wRC+, which is sort of stupid for fantasy rankings. I could have easily done Z-Scores, which is not stupid. I didn’t put in the effort because I like to combine Steamer and ZiPS, which isn’t an option yet.
I did not stop there of course. After pressing “sort” I used my own marginal intellect to consider playing time, roster considerations, and other factors that affect a player’s 5×5 value. For example, you will find Joe Mauer ranked 16th among catchers whereas his Steamer value has him in third. I’m not a senseless automaton, I am capable of observing that Mauer is liable to provide very little 5×5 value with his Carlos Ruizian power. Generally, I favored players who project to play a full season and hit for power. These are based on my personal preferences. (It’s since been pointed out that Mauer will not qualify as a catcher in 2015).
My methodology for starting pitchers was a little more vigorous. Steamer doesn’t output K% or BB%, but it does include K/9 and BB/9. I strongly prefer using K%-BB% as an evaluative stat. However, since I only had an inexact method of calculating batters faced (WHIP times innings plus number of outs is one such way), I settled for K/BB. Then I decided to divide K/BB by FIP for no reason I can readily discern. What resulted is some kind of score in which 1.9 is Clayton Kershaw, 0.75 is a roughly average pitcher, and 0.23 is Erik Johnson.
From there, I combined my senseless math with my own impressions to form my lists. You may be interested in the fourth and 19th ranked starting pitchers as evidence that said rankings are, indeed, “very preliminary.”
Honestly, I was quite tired of ranking players by the time I got to the relievers. I just plopped my internalized impressions on a page. Steamer isn’t helpful with relievers anyway since all “closers” will save 28 games while setup men will notch six saves.
The Rankings
You may visit this Google doc to view my rankings. I will not deign to immortalize this iteration of ranks on this website. Have I mentioned they are preliminary? Very much so, in fact.
PS – apologies to those of you who are blocked from Google docs at work. I suggest you find a less fascist employer!
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
I love looking at rankings, so thanks for the post. I really have to question Adam Jones as OF #21 behind guys like Steve Pearce and Kole Calhoun and Carlos Carrasco as SP #4 in front of guys like Strasburg, Sale and Bumgarner. That’s unconscionable IMO. Otherwise, thanks for the sheet
You’ll be interested in tomorrow’s post then.
agree with Pete. I am surprised at the Kemp ranking at 35. I don’t see his numbers falling all that much due to the move to Petco.
Carrasco at #4 was a shocker as well. Look forward to your piece on him tomorrow.
Is there a bug in your formula, or do you just love Carrasco, and manually moved him to #4?
Looking at Steamer, using your methodology, I get:
(K/9)/(BB/9)/FIP
Strasburg: (9.78)/(2.27)/2.87 = 1.50
Carrasco: (8.58)/(2.61)/3.30 = 1.00
There was some adjustment to Carrasco, roughly – 9.50/2.00/2.90 = 1.63
interesting, but seems a little unfair. I don’t have a particular fondness for Strasburg, just choosing him as an example. Even last year, he had a better BB/9 and K/9 than Carrasco. Carrasco did have better ratios in the 2nd half but not by much. Considering that Carrasco only beat him slightly in just half a season, but Strasburg has a much longer track record of a high level of performance, I can’t imagine choosing Carrasco so high.
I love the placement of Carlos Carrasco so high among SP. I acquired Carrasco ($6) and Stroman ($7) – for – Justin Upton ($35), Steve Cishek ($7), Jon Singleton ($7) and Jose Peraza ($2), and I was not sure whether I was over-valuing Carrasco and Stroman.
Based on your rankings, I am now satisfied that a person with much more knowledge than I shares my confidence in Carrasco and Stroman.
That’s a nice swap for you. Stroman could work out to be another top 20 guy. I’m able to be aggressive with Carrasco because I’ve gotten a good, clean look at him. I haven’t seen enough from Stroman to justify getting super-bullish.
For your 3B rankings, do you see much separation between #10 and #15? Arenado feels too low, but if that cluster is pretty much equal, then it makes more sense. Personally, I think Arenado should be about as good as Sandoval, and I’m a little skeptical of Harrison, but his flexibility makes it more understandable that he would get some sort of boost.
In my mind, there’s a big gap between Arenado and Bogaerts, larger than the difference between Santana and Arenado. So yea, it’s clumpy there.
Both Harrison and Zobrist are much higher in the rankings than their production can account for. I rate flexibility very highly.
You seem to be pretty low on Duda. Any particular reason why?
27th does seem low, but when I look at the guys ahead of him, I don’t see anybody who should be lower. This is less an indictment of Duda as it is an acknowledgement of the depth at 1B.
Hard to project a low # of HR for Duda with the high 40’s% FB rate. Even with a conservative HR/FB rate Duda should be higher than 27th.
By the way, I know you must hate getting a lot of negative comments, so overall I think the rankings look great and thanks very much for sharing them so early. This must have taken a lot of time and effort.
Aside from one troll (which I deleted per my no tolerance policy re: trolls), I don’t really see any of these comments as negative. I published a list with a lot of problems specifically to generate conversation. We’re smart folks around here, and I tend to find y’all provide great feedback on half finished work.
Even projecting 30 HR for Duda, I have trouble squeezing him past 25 on the list. Two spots in the rankings is meaningless imo.
SS gets really shallow really quick. I can wait for the Jones article. That ranking was a surprise.
SS is really really shallow.
Jones might be somebody I need to adjust. My perception that he’s a half inch away from falling into the deepest pits of despair may be a bit melodramatic.
Jones – I recall similar sentiment from other industry writers last year, but Jones was Jones once again in 2014.
Hypothetically, if there’s a 40% chance he busts completely and a 60% chance he stays the same, then a typical performance in 2014 doesn’t mean we were wrong.
I understand Jones always has outperformed his underlying stats, but when he has been so consistent I think you have to give him the benefit of the doubt.
Fact of the day:
He is the only MLB player ever to hit in the 280s for 5 straight years.
Could you elaborate why it is sort of stupid to order by wRC+? I use it and wOBA to target players for my fantasy team. My team includes the likes of Buster Posey, Joey Votto, Ben Zobrist, Josh Donaldson, Jose Reyes, Matt Holliday, Yasiel Puig, Jayson Werth, and Shin-Soo Choo who all typically rank near the top of of wRC+.
My 16 team, 30 man rosters head-to-head league does include XBH and BB in addition to the five standard categories, so maybe it is more useful for that sort of league?
Yea, that scoring format makes the wRC+ shortcut a lot more sensible. In a 5×5 league, wOBA can really over/under rate players based on their category production.
wRC+ is park and league adjusted. So you don’t care about that for fantasy.
I appreciate the responses.
Please stop giving information to this guy as I want to beat him again this year.
It won’t happen again.
I don’t think Mauer played a single game at catcher last season, so he probably won’t be eligible there in most formats. Also, isn’t Ken Giles in the running to close for Philly? He might be someone worth keeping an eye on for RP.
Right you are.
Quick question about Moss: You seem a little low on him. Are you worried about his hip? I kind of discount it with the upside of his move to CLE from OAK.
I love Moss in Cleveland. I expect to land a lot of shares. It is indeed the hip that’s holding me back, I had him sandwiched between Freeman and Pearce initially (I had forgotten Posey completely at the time).
What were you using as a position eligibility cutoff? It may be a reason why 1B seems so deep.
Yahoo rules, 10 GP or 5 GS
That’s what I figured. Leagues with 20 game cutoffs will thin the herds at 1B.
Then there are a bunch of players in your first cut who aren’t going to qualify at positions listed or mentioned next year … e.g. you have Gyorko as 2B-3B on the 2B list but he didn’t actually get into 5 games at 3B in 2014
Let’s just say I caught 90% of the errors from the original list I was handed. I cross checked quite a few multi-position players, but not all of them.
If you sort by wRC doesn’t that unfairly punish Coors field players? Corey Dickerson ranks 7th among outfielders in OPS but falls all the way to 24th in your rankings when you start using weighted metrics. I agree with the rankings for offensive ability, but when it comes to fantasy I’ll gladly take the unfair Coors advantage!
Specifically on the topic of Coors Field, I like to intentionally penalize the mid-tier types. I’ll happily roster them, but they have increased injury risk (I think, I recall reading a study to that effect), and they tend to have heavy home/away splits. If they also handedness splits, you can end up using them only 30-40% of the time. That’s how I plan to use Blackmon next season. Dickerson still has everyday potential.
Curious as to why you’re so high on Choo, but so low on CarGo. Shouldn’t CarGo put up similar/better numbers than Choo as long as he can play 2/3 of a season?
This is what I get for talking and typing at the same time. Long = low
What? I don’t see it 🙂
It’s a fair question. I was concerned about CarGo prior to last season’s round of annual injuries. With Choo, I’m less concerned about an automatic DL stint or erosion of talent. Looking closer, Choo should probably be after Pence (12th).
Both are good buy low candidates, especially in an auction format.
Awesome, thanks for taking the time and answering our questions, it’s been a big help!
I feel like I’m seeing ever-so-slight shadings on certain players (like 19th to 21st at SS appear to be slightly shaded). Am I developing cataracts at an alarming age, or are you saying those guys are essentially in the same tier and are basically interchangeable?
(It can be both things.)
What you’re seeing is an artifact from how the list was created. Boring details ahead:
My boss at RotoBaller pulled the current consensus rankings from FantasyPros (presumably via copy/paste) for a bunch of us to rank and form our own site consensus. I then added names to that list as I saw fit, which resulted in slightly different shading.
No tiers have been implemented at this time, but they will be! But probably not any time soon.
Assuming Lindor plays half a season, where would you rank him within the SS’s?
Somewhere between Josh Rutledge and Yunel Escobar. He’s a great long-term asset, but I think his bat is probably more than a season away from relevance. This is based on watching all of 10 separate swings, so don’t take it as gospel.
On a related note, I tinkered Jose Ramirez up a short distance. I expect him to play the full season at short.
Miggy at 3b? I am not sure he played there all last season.
Ah, this one I did not screw up! 10 games, 8 starts.
He played 10 games at 3b last season.
Thanks for this rankings, Brad. I’d like to hear your thoughts on Starling Marte. I can’t see him being worse than the likes of Cain, Arcia, and an unknown like Castillo in fantasy.
I can take a closer look at him. I tend to penalize players without power. Marte has 10 HR upside, unlike a Ben Revere, so maybe I should be a little more aggressive with him. The outfield rankings in particular need a lot of work.
I’d go as far to say they’re the farthest from complete.
Marte hit 12 HRs in 2013 and 13 in 2014, so he SHOULD hit 14 HRs in 2015.
#LinearGrowth
FWIW, Marte had 8 HRs in 187 ABs in a very, very good second half. It may of course be SSS, but there’s a non-0 chance it indicates a new level.
As the owner of Miggy, Rendon, Abreu, Stanton, Werth, Yelich, Calhoun…and some kids, Phat Al Pujols, and Nellie Cruz as backups as the cliche goes, “From your mouth to God’s ears”. Now to figure out how to plug that black hole at SS.
The projections/rankings based on a projection system I developed for the custom scoring in our league resulted in somewhat similar rankings for position players. It’s an “Ottoneu light” points league.
Definitely variations for pitchers where wins, etc. aren’t factors.
I understand not being too high on Gio, but I don’t see how he can be that low. Having him behind the likes of Bartolo Colon seems odd.
Although admittedly, I guess my point of contention should be with the methodology.
Bartolo was a bit of a problem because he was way higher via the methodology than I ranked him. Honestly, I got tired of scrolling up my spreadsheet to remind myself he was still on the board.
Gio is a little wonky. He and Liriano are almost the same guy. They should be within 5 spots of each other.
Thanks for putting in the work!
I see you don’t imagine a huge fall for JD Martinez. Not worried about an adjustment from pitchers considering his very poor plate discipline, or a big drop in BABIP (it was 389) effecting his overall numbers?
He is a keeper option for me, but didnt view him as much of one until I checked these ranks.
I’m expecting something like a .250 avg, 33 HR, 105 RBI, 75 R, 7 SB.
In other words, I expect some problems but the power will remain.
So basically the same power as last year if you give him 600 abs. I like it, now leaning towards keeping for $5.
Oh he’s definitely a keeper at $5. Even if you keep him to sell him during preseason to somebody who does think he’s a bonafide star.
Wow….if he hits over .270 or slugs over .500, I’ll buy you something modestly-priced.
Your table is ugly and hurts my eyes. I realize you are trying to make some sort of statement here, but can you at least put it in some kind of format we actually want to see? Isn’t that what they are underpaying you for?
Also, why are you so low on Wieters? Is it the risk that he will miss a month or so?
I don’t really see #16 as low on Wieters. Yea, he could be 12 or 13, but it hardly matters if he’s at the top or the bottom of that tier. There’s clearly a cliff after Perez. Returning from TJS has me steering away.
You might want to get your eyes checked if that hurts 🙂
Put it into your own spreadsheet, Diva.
Ha. Also, it’s a list, not a table. It’s supposed to be a list and I think it succeeds swimmingly at being a list.
I can never understand why analysts hate ratings. After all, that why we dumb fans read you! Methodoogy is great but it is a means to an end, ratings, ratings, and ratings.. All that matters
I didn’t see Brock Holt on your list for 3b. Where we he slot if you added him?
I don’t see how he’s going to get more than 100-150 PA at the moment, so he’s not ranked anywhere. If he were starting, I’d rank him between Plouffe and Chisenhall.
Also. How does Kang signing with the Pirates affect his and Jody Mercer’s ranking.
That happened after I finished SS, so I’m not sure yet. I’ll wait until he’s actually signed though.
I’m in a 12 team 5×5 league (2 catcher) and can keep 6 players. I have planned on keeping $1 Arrieta, $1 Carrasco, $12 Hamels, $5 A Wood and $10 Gomez. I am struggling with the last spot between $15 Wainwright, $8 Frazier, $1 Wieters and $1 Calhoun. Any insight?
Frazier at $8 is a solid value given that 3B is so weak
Tanaka at #24. How many innings are you expecting from him?
Call it 140? It’s really that’s there’s a higher than usual chance for fewer than 30 IP.
Where would Marcus Semien fall in as a shortstop? Got him for $1 in AL only roto league, 12 teams
Curious about Kennys Vargas, he should be a power source for the Twins at 1B or DH.
Should he be on the list?
Yes, he should. Somewhere between Napoli and Chisenhall.
Interesting. Dayan Viciedo in OF rankings, but no Michael Saunders? In that Blue Jays lineup?
UR means “Unranked.” Viciedo was on the list from FantasyPros, but I didn’t see him as a fit for my OF list, even after adding a bunch of names. Saunders could/should be up there, perhaps betwenn Aoki and Byrd.
I’m assuming there is a typo for Rank 23 for RPs that is supposed to say “Joe Nathan Papelbon”?
What type of league are these rankings to be used for? If it’s for 5×5, it would have taken all of 30 seconds to sue z-scores to rank them all by actual value once you had the projection set, rather than the bizarre method you actually used. Was there a reason to do it this way other than simply being different or lazy?
Different plus lazy is about right.
How do you do z-scores in 30 seconds? Especially using OO Calc. I usually have to block off an entire afternoon when I’m taking that step (pitchers end up harder because I transform some stats, I always have to make up a new methodology).
(x – average)/stdev of a column of counting stats.
You only have to write that once and then drag it over to fill the other 9 columns.
For stats where lower is better like ERA and WHIP (after they are converted to counting stats like runs saved and walks+hits saved, of course) you simply switch the sign on the numerator so it becomes (-x + average)/stdev
Sum up the z-score for each stat, for each player, and you get the ZSum which is the value. Seriously, it’s like 30 seconds start to finish. I use Excel and not Calc but I assume it’s the same process since these are only basic formulas.
Kudos to the author for taking the time for so many responses in the comments. Would love to see more and more of this from all of the Fangraphs authors. You often get one or two but rarely this many. It really helps to keep the comments productive and adds so much more to the article.
Thanks Brad!