Agenda

1. Use Your Peripherals
2. Tuesday DFS
3. Wednesday Picks
4. Table

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Well, I had some pretty good luck this weekend with some of the lineup choices I recommended. It was about time. It felt like it had been forever since I really had things fall the way I’d hoped.

I’m sorry if that comes off as arrogant. I’ve honestly just been so busy at work that I didn’t have the time to look up any cool facts or research any players somewhat intensively, so it seemed like a good time to toot my own horn a little bit. It may be a little bit before I feel confident enough to do it again, so feel free to let me know the next time I whiff badly in order to bring me down a peg.

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As we’ve spent the past few weeks picking the bones of injury replacements here in the waiver wire dumpster, let’s turn to our other pastime in this business: placing bets on penny stock prospects in the hopes they’ll yield some value. In the cases of the Diamondbacks and the Mets, however, we’re talking about two sub-.500 teams, which presents the possibility that these young guns could stick around in the majors with some regular playing time — presuming, of course, that they produce.
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Yesterday, I discussed eight hitters whose batted ball distances suggested an imminent power surge. Today I’ll take a look at the opposite side of the coin — those whose distances suggest their current HR/FB rates are unsustainable. As a reminder, this analysis assumes the distances are maintained. Obviously we’re still dealing with a relatively small sample size and these hitters are capable of boosting their batted ball distances to match their HR/FB rates.

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Yesterday was the 19th anniversary of the film “Crimson Tide” being released. Other than “The Hunt for Red October” it is my favorite submarine film. Coming in at a respectable third place finish is “Down Periscope.”

On today’s agenda:
1. Jose Fernandez…sadface
2. The new New York Mets rotation
3. Junior Lake’s big day
4. The Daily Five

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Coming into the season, the catcher position didn’t look too awful. There were the typical names atop draft lists in Buster Posey, Joe Mauer, and Carlos Santana and then there were a few I was targeting in later rounds in Wilin Rosario, Salvador Perez, and Jonathan Lucroy — the latter being better bargains in my mind. And yet in every draft I participated in (which will remain unpublished in case my wife is reading this. It’s three honey, just three leagues…) I was shut out, left to “punt” catcher, taking one in either the last round or for a flyer buck.

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• I don’t think Manny Machado’s knee is close to 100% yet. I timed him to 1B on a double play he sprinted on (5/7, 3rd inning).  He got to 1B in 4.6 secs which is a 20, the worst possible scouting rating. The rest of his stats back this lack of speed up. No doubles since returning (51 last season). No stolen base attempts. Three grounded into double plays (1 GDP per 43 PA in 2013, 1 GDP per 14 PA in 2014). Speed score down from 3.7 to 1.4. The knee just can’t be 100% yet.

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The first pitch is a complicated moment in any at-bat. The strike rate on the pitch is rising as pitchers pump it in the zone to get their advantage. And yet the swing rate on the pitch is diving as hitters try to be more patient in an era in which on-base percentage is praised. There’s evidence that this new approach isn’t any worse than the old-school approach — but that’s for baseball as a whole.

There have to be batters that are taking or swinging too much on the first pitch of an at-bat. If you’re a selective hitter, it makes sense to take. You’ll get a lot of 1-0 counts, and you’ll have a great sense of what’s a hittable pitch. If you’re more of an aggressive hitter that reaches often, maybe it makes sense to swing more often at strike one. You’ll avoid more 0-1 counts, and you’ll put some nice pitches into play.

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Last week, I unveiled the May Tiered Rankings for the second base position, and readers quickly zeroed in on my rankings of Dee Gordon and Aaron Hill. They believed I had placed both of them too low. One intrepid reader even took the time to pound at the keyboard and ask exasperatingly, “WHAT DOES DEE HAVE TO DO!”

While I appreciate the lack of question mark at the end of the sentence — as it would’ve resulted in an uncouth double punctuation — it’s clearly a question about which this individual feels passionately and desires a sincere answer. After all, Dee Gordon is hitting .331/.364/.441 with 24 steals. He’s the number-one ranked second baseman in ESPN leagues and the number-three overall player, behind only the Colorado duo of Charlie Blackmon and Troy Tulowitzki.

How the [insert choice expletive here] could I possibly rank Dee Gordon as a fourth-tier second baseman?

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Agenda

1. A note about weather reports
2. Monday Mashables
3. Tuesday T-Word
4. Table

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