Archive for November, 2013

Pablo Sandoval: 60% Likelihood of Pain

Pablo Sandoval’s weight has been mentioned plenty of times before. Often the reason is a potential move to first base, given the need for some athleticism at third base. But then there are all the injuries that he’s suffered over the first five years of his career. It’s fair to wonder if the weight affects him most when it comes to staying healthy. Is that fair? What do the careers of other bigger position players tell us?

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Chris Johnson: Surprise Batting Average Crown Contender

When we think of batting crown contenders, we have an image in our minds of a high contact line drive hitter who sprays the ball to all fields. Good power certainly helps as home runs are hits and don’t factor into BABIP, so hitting home runs are an easy way to boost batting average without requiring an increase in BABIP. Speed also helps as it could lead to a greater rate of infield hits and even bunt hits. Chris Johnson isn’t exactly the picture of a batting average leader, and yet, he finished second in the National League with a .321 mark, which ranked fifth in baseball.

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Josh Donaldson and Batting Average Regression

To say Josh Donaldson’s 2013 season was a surprise would be a huge under-statement. He put up a MVP caliber season at a premium position. The exact cause for his turnaround is not exactly known. It could have been his new bat or finally feeling comfortable in his transition to 3B. No matter the cause, since being promoted in the second half of 2012, he has been on a hitting tear.

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Edwin Encarnacion Could Be Special Next Year

Over the past couple years, Edwin Encarnacion has transformed himself into a legitimate offensive superstar in Major League Baseball. He was the Reds’ top prospect when he made his major-league debut in 2005, but he ultimately wore out his welcome in Cincinnati with poor defense and inconsistent performance. The 30-year-old even scuffled for a couple years in Toronto before busting out in 2012 by launching 42 homers.

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Alex Meyer Progresses, Impresses in Arizona

Down in Arizona to get one last fix of baseball before the lean winter months, I had the distinct pleasure of getting to watch Alex Meyer pitch three innings of shutout ball against the AFL East All-Star lineup — while sitting behind two excellent young fellows from Trackman baseball. There’s very little PITCHf/x in the minor leagues, and usually competitor Trackman’s data is proprietary and under lock and key. But in Arizona, the company enjoys its best chance to openly market their radar-based approach to pitch tracking, and the numbers their system provided were an interesting guide to a dominant outing by the Twins’ best pitching prospect.

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Reconsidering My Player Valuation Method

Prior to the season, as part of the FanGraphs+ offering, I went over my methodology for creating ottoneu player valuations, which included my decision to use Points/PA rather than total points or points per game evaluate players in points leagues. In fact, my preference in almost all formats is to break players down to their per PA values and rank them based on how much production above replacement level they provide in that increment.

This led to a debate on the relative merits of Pts/PA vs. Pts/G, in which I basically stood by the fact that the per PA method better accounted for platoon players – guys who pinch hit a lot and therefore have a lot of low-point games thanks to getting only 1-2 PA. And while I still contend that Pts/PA is better than Pts/G, I have been wondering if there is not a third way.

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Reviewing Pod’s Picks: Third Base

We have made it to third base week here and that means another round of recapping my Pod’s Picks at the position. There were a couple of breakout stars, while Miguel Cabrera once again led the pack. Looking at the difference in my preseason rank and the consensus, we find that there really wasn’t much difference, as a ranking disparity of just two or three places is rather insignificant. That means we generally agreed on third base rankings, even for the guys listed below. Let’s see how I did.

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2013 End of Season Rankings: Third Base

The 2013 fantasy baseball season has come to a close, so it is time to look back at the season past and determine which players were the most valuable at each position. This week focuses on third baseman.

The players were ranked based on their 2013 production, using the evaluation system explained and updated on this site some time ago. To keep things manageable and avoid skewing the numbers, players were only considered if they amassed 400 plate appearances over the course of the year. The replacement level was also adjusted to account for players eligible at multiples positions. The valuations are built for $260 budgets and traditional 5×5 roto fantasy leagues, where only one catcher is started.

One important thing to note is the premium (or lack thereof) placed on the position a player occupies in your lineup. For example, while a first baseman may be able to accumulate superior overall numbers, the availability of such production lower in the rankings severely dampers the amount the player was worth.

These rankings are meant to reflect a player’s value should he have occupied this spot in your lineup for the entire year. So, a player who missed time due to injury but put up great numbers during his time on the field would be worth less.

With all this in mind, here are your rankings. Read the rest of this entry »


Concerning Gordon Beckham’s Redeeming Qualities

Writer’s Note: Gordon Beckham ranked 31st in Zach Sanders’ season-ending rankings among second basemen.

The 2013 season marked the fourth-straight season in which Gordon Beckham finished with an OPS under .700. In fact, in two of the last four seasons, Beckham has had an OBP under .300, with more than twice as many strikeouts as walks in all four of those seasons.

In essence, those four season’s encapsulate the essence of Beckham, whose remarkable ascent to the big leagues came one year after he was the first round pick (eighth overall) of the White Sox. Beckham signed in August of 2008, and by June the next year he was a fixture in the Pale Hose lineup.

That first year was rather good to Beckham, as he took over third base from Josh Fields and never really relinquished it. In 103 games totaling over 400 plate appearances, Beckham hit .270/.347/.460 with 43 extra-base hits, seven steals, and a solid 1.6 K/BB rate.

But that season pretty much sums up the modicum of success he’s had at the big league level. Since his rookie season, he’s hit .244/.306/.364 while almost exclusively playing second base for the Sox. Beckham’s second half in 2010 gave many fantasy writers — this one included — optimism for the future. Through the midsummer classic that year, Beckham had hit .216/.277/.304 before turning on the jets to the tune of a .310/.380/.497 second half.

The next best half-season split Beckham has had in the interim was in the first half this year, when he hit .335/.357/.443 in just 44 games. But then he sputtered to a .616 OPS in the second half, and further cemented himself as a night-and-day player with little to no predictability as to which is which, and why. Read the rest of this entry »


Ian Kinsler In Decline

With two 30-30 seasons in his resume, there was a time when it was quite fashionable to select Ian Kinsler as early as the first round in fantasy drafts. 2012 was a down year by his standards, but the lure of a rebound season still kept his price tag hefty with a $20-plus average auction cost and an average draft position in the 20’s. It suffices to say that he lacked a return on investment in 2013.

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