I’m probably not the only person checking the Weather Channel for reports of Hell freezing over. One day you’ve got All-Stars at every position and the next you have Juan Rivera, Kevin Youkilis, Travis Hafner, and Vernon Wells occupying starting roles. I actually find it an endearing crew of misfits to root for, but I’m not sure many Yankee fans would agree with me. But this post isn’t about the lineup, it’s about the rotation, where the Yankees have had at least a modicum of stability through the winter.

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The Orioles bullpen doesn’t appear to have all of the bright flashing lights and fancy names like some of the others in the league, but there could be some fine value to be had for fantasy owners in deeper leagues that reward holds.

The Closer:

Jim Johnson

Surprising to many, Jim Johnson finished the 2012 season with a league-leading 51 saves and a seventh place finish in the Cy Young race. The right-hander’s success could be attributed to the increased use of the two-seamer which led to a 62.3% GB% in 71 appearances. He failed to earn the swings-and-misses (6.9% SwStr%, 15.2% K%) that most expect from a true “closer,” but he maintained more-than-reasonable ratios (2.49 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) and induced enough ground balls to lockdown the ninth and make him a valuable asset to those who invested. We could very well see a repeat of Johnson’s 2012 ratios and whiffs, but don’t expect 51 saves and you won’t get your heart-broken.

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Given his initial contract demands, three years at about $15 million per year, and what he signed for, three years at $11 million per year, it’s hard to argue that Kyle Lohse was one of the offseason winners. That said, the initial responses to the deal seem to point to the idea that even if Lohse lost, the Brewers didn’t exactly win by signing him. The money isn’t likely to be an issue with the deal – Lohse only needs to be worth about two wins a season to justify the cost – but the loss of a draft pick to a division rival is an abstract cost for which Lohse won’t be able to directly answer.

But the money is spent, Lohse is a Brewer, and the question at this point is whether or not he’ll be able to provide the team with value above and beyond the two wins necessary to justify his contract. Read the rest of this entry »

The Yasiel Puig movement is starting in Los Angeles. Carlos Beltran is hurt in St. Louis and the temptation is to turn to Oscar Taveras. And Wil Myers was the biggest prospect traded this offseason, and he’s on a team that could use a corner outfielder. What to do with these young outfielders in redraft leagues?

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The Yankees’ outfield has undergone quite a transformation not just since last season, but since the start of Spring Training. Since Grapefruit League games started in late-February, the Yankees have lost Curtis Granderson to injury (fractured forearm), released Matt Diaz, traded for Vernon Wells (still unofficial, but it will happen), and signed two players off the scrap heap after they were released by other clubs. Here’s the outfield alignment the team is looking at come Opening Day…

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Like the work of my cohorts here at RotoGraphs, these ten bold predictions are meant to push the conventional wisdom and highlight some players (and events) that will over- or under-perform compared to their fantasy expectations. While they’re maybe not likely to happen, I think that each of these events has a fair possibility of coming to pass. Let’s get wild, shall we?

1) Fernando Martinez hits 20+ HR, making him a useful fantasy OF.

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We’ve started bold prediction week for 2013, and it sounds like the readers really want BOLD predictions. Of course there is always a trade-off – don’t go bold enough, and you are just stating what we already know; go too bold and you will likely be wrong and your predictions will have no fantasy value.

But the fans want bold and I like to please the fans, so I am going to go big here. Does that mean I will likely fall short of the four predictions I made last year that were either right or at least close to right? Probably. But I’m swinging for the fences anyway.

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I love making bold predictions. In no other post could I make a claim like I can here without getting laughed at. It’s easy coming up with the names you want to make a prediction for, but slightly more difficult coming up with interesting ways to express your optimism/pessimism about said players. I typically shoot for predictions that have around a 20% chance of coming true, so the hope is that I get at least two of these right. Here we go…

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Buckle up, we have a lot to cover on today’s Roto Riteup.

On today’s agenda:
1. Fifth starter updates
2. Jason Giambi being added to the 40-man roster
3. The Oakland A’s send down Jemile Weeks
4. The New York Mets’ catching situation
5. Kyle Lohsee signs

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In the general injury material for this week, I have found a couple interesting articles.

Kyle Boddy’s piece at the Hardball Times where he looks at how different injured pitchers at different levels were handled by their coaches.

Second, Bill Petti examined claims by Bill James about groundball pitchers. Bill James claims groundball pitchers are more injury prone while Bill found the exact opposite.

Recent injury data

 • Roy Halladay is not close to the same pitcher we have seen in the past. He got only 7 of 18 minor league batters out in his last start. He hasn’t been able to put together one good start this season, but according to him, nothing is wrong besides a stomach virus. The virus caused him to lose 10 pounds in 2 days. No one should expect to be 100% after losing 10 pounds quickly.

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