We’ll be wrapping up analysis of our mock auction from a few weeks back this week, and I wanted to bring you analysis from two more participants in the mock before we did. And give you a chance to win an FG+, since I mucked up the first shot at it this morning with an easy one.
Just a couple injury updates and a few reports on players returning from injuries sustained in 2012.
Recent injury data
• Corey Hart has stated his return to the field may be in late April instead of late May as originally reported. No matter what the timetable, his owners will need to find a replacement until he returns.
Right-hander Brandon Lyon likely isn’t on too many fantasy radars this winter. After all, he has only compiled five saves over the past two seasons and owns an uninspiring 6.15 K/9 career strikeout rate. A shoulder injury in 2011 and two-plus years with the Houston Astros also contribute to his removal from the collective fantasy consciousness.
With the news that Lyon should be joining the New York Mets bullpen, however, fantasy owners should once again start paying attention to the 33-year-old former closer.
Non-closing relievers do have value in most deeper fantasy formats, but aside from the standard solid run prevention, they ideally must provide ample strikeouts and a chance at save opportunities to justify selection on draft day. Coming into the 2012 season, Brandon Lyon did not project to offer either of those. His strikeout rate had been below-average throughout his career, and Brett Myers had the closer’s role on lockdown in Houston.
A year can make quite the difference.
Jesus Montero will be the Mariners starting catcher when pitchers and catcher report in less than one week. That’s actually somewhat surprising, as Montero’s only real weak spot as a prospect was his defense. Due to those concerns, the Mariners primarily used Montero as their designated hitter last season. They didn’t give up on him as a catcher, allowing him to play 53 games behind the plate. Though the M’s allowed Montero to work through his struggles at the major-league level, his performance was underwhelming. In 553 plate appearances, Montero hit just .260/.298/.386. Montero may not have lived up to his prospect billing last season, but he was just 22-years-old. Entering his age-23 season, there’s still plenty of hope for Montero. And by moving him the catcher full-time, the Mariners might be giving him a much better shot at an offensive break out.
It’s been nearly two weeks since I posted my last Pod Projection after the journey to estimate/project HR/FB ratio took over my life. Surprisingly, Jason Heyward tallied nary a vote when I first asked you readers who you wanted me to publish a projection breakdown for next. Instead, fellow RotoGrapher Howard Bender requested Heyward, while kickin’ rocks of course. Big things were expected of Heyward as a rookie and big things are still expected. As such, I thought he was a hitter more than worthy of a statistical dissection.
There many of us here in the electronic series of tubes who don’t pay for closers. That is, we either literally don’t pay big money in auctions or we don’t pay with a precious fifth/sixth/seventh round pick, what have you. But regardless of your perspective on the drafting of closers, we can all probably agree that many a fantasy team has been immediately buoyed by the acquisition, pouncing on, stashing of, the future closer. Headed into 2013, there are a few closer situations with seemingly defined roles, although the hold might be tenuous.
The deadline to keep players in Ottoneu passed Thursday evening at midnight, and today I thought it might be fun to run my roster through the wringer. After all, I’m eagerly trying to gain the acceptance of my readers! But seriously, I sort of am.
So here’s the Fangraphs Staff League II. My team name is “Bang the Woodrum”, and we are in a 12 team league — I just noticed Woodrum named his team “I am Warneing You” — with FanGraphs points (linear weights) scoring. The budget is $400, and I’ve filled 31 roster spots with $344. Last year, I led down the stretch until innings limits sabotaged me at the last second, leaving me in third place. Read the rest of this entry »
Jose Veras — not the most glamorous name that comes to mind when you’re thinking about closers for next year, but if you’re one of those fantasy owners who hates investing heavily in a position as volatile as the ninth-inning specialists, then he just might be worth a look. Of the dozen or so mock drafts that I have done over the past several weeks, I have seen Veras taken exactly once, and that was by me in the very last round with my very last pick. Closers have been coming off the board in their usual fashion and while many owners were plucking middle relievers who may very well be great for stabilizing ratios, hardly any of them will be accumulating saves. Veras, on the hand, has the potential to do both. Read the rest of this entry »
This offseason, as transactions unfold and news breaks on the big league level, we’ll take a look at how the ripple effects shake out on the prospect side, focusing primarily on 2013 fantasy impact, with an eye toward the future, too.
This week: An injury to a Red Sox outfielder could open the door for a trio of intriguing youngsters with different skill sets; and the Rangers are considering an under-the-radar prospect for a backup role.
Last winter, the Yankees signed Raul Ibanez to add some power off the bench, despite the fact that he was coming off a dreadful 2011 with Philadelphia — managing only a .289 OBP in his age-39 season. Ibanez’ best days remained far behind him, but he basically delivered as well as the Yankees could have hoped – despite playing lousy defense in far more time than expected due to Brett Gardner’s injury, he had a huge platoon split (.812 OPS against righties) and he took advantage of the short porch in Yankee Stadium, hitting 14 of his 19 homers there.
Ibanez has since moved on to Seattle, and all winter the Yankees have been staring at a huge hole at designated hitter, unable to do better than some potentially horrific combination of Eduardo Nunez, Russ Canzler, & Juan Rivera. With that in mind, the news that the Yankees are going to sign Travis Hafner – another righty-killing, defense-averse slugger well past his prime — to be this year’s Ibanez makes a ton of sense. Read the rest of this entry »