Forgetting Jose Veras
Jose Veras — not the most glamorous name that comes to mind when you’re thinking about closers for next year, but if you’re one of those fantasy owners who hates investing heavily in a position as volatile as the ninth-inning specialists, then he just might be worth a look. Of the dozen or so mock drafts that I have done over the past several weeks, I have seen Veras taken exactly once, and that was by me in the very last round with my very last pick. Closers have been coming off the board in their usual fashion and while many owners were plucking middle relievers who may very well be great for stabilizing ratios, hardly any of them will be accumulating saves. Veras, on the hand, has the potential to do both.
Now I know what you’re thinking…Houston Astros, yuck! Are they even going to win a game this year? But as we’ve seen proven countless times, even closers on bad teams can be extremely helpful in the fantasy world. Are they going to pick up 40-plus saves in a year? Probably not. But a 30-save mark isn’t so far-fetched, is it? I remember when my league used to laugh at me for throwing a late dollar on a little-known Kansas City Royals closer who turned out to be quite the dominant force, and while Veras is hardly Joakim Soria, his situation is just as tasty for him as it was for the man formerly known as the Mexecutioner back in 2008.
I’ll grant you, at 32-years old, Veras is no spring chicken. He’s been around the block more than just a few times and he has almost never been given the opportunity to close. But with the departure of Wilton Lopez, the Astros really have nowhere else to turn right now. There might be a name or two in their bullpen who might get a fleeting glance this spring, but as things stand right now, Veras, a guy who has posted a K/9 over 10.00 in each of his last three seasons, is their guy.
While a career 4.01 ERA is nothing you really want a part of when it comes to your fantasy bullpen, Veras’ career numbers with the bases empty is something to which you should be paying attention. When a closer comes in for the ninth inning, he is there starting from scratch. Sure, there are times when he’s brought in in the eighth to work out of a jam, but more often than not, when he walks to the mound, it is to start the ninth with a clean slate. With the bases empty, Veras has an ERA of just 1.06 with 166 strikeouts in 153.1 innings and he is holding opposing batters to a .208 average. Yes, he’s also walked 93 batters in that span, something that he has been struggling with throughout his career, but hey, I never said the guy was perfect.
In fact, if the notion of a final pick on Veras as the Astros closer tickles your fancy even just a little, I recommend you head over to a piece that Jack Moore wrote on him back when Houston first picked him up in December. You’ll see that he will test your patience as he goes through stretches when his mid-90’s fastball and paralyzing curve look unhittable followed by stretches where batters just can’t miss either. But you’ll also see that the Astros have little else on their plate in the relief department and the leash he has will be lengthy.
For the extremely minimal investment it will cost you, he’s definitely worth a shot. If he’s a disaster from the start, you’ve lost nothing. But if he ends up panning out, you’ve got a tremendous value pick on your hands….and possibly some killer trade bait.
Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over 10 years on a variety of websites. In addition to his work here, you can also find him at his site, RotobuzzGuy.com, Fantasy Alarm, RotoWire and Mock Draft Central. Follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or for more direct questions or comments, email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com
5.37 bb/9? No thank you! It’s like a less dominant Carlos Marmol.
Yeah, there it is. Actually a 5.46 BB/9 with the bases empty. So he immediately puts a guy on and unleashes that 6.82 career ERA with men on base. Come on Bender, you’re better than that.
Bad ERA and a good amount of walks, but the point is he is not getting picked up in drafts. My guess is that John Axford and Joel Hanrahan ARE and they both had BB/9’s over 5. People still draft Jonathan Sanchez every year.
Since saves and wins are to hard to project you have to look at K’s, ERA and WHIP.
Here’s some projections for a pair of Cliff Lee and Jose Veras vs Madison Bumgarner and Jonathan Papelbon. My guess is you would pay about 2 or 3 bucks less for the pair of Lee and Veras.
Lee/Veras – 270 IP 273K 3.133 ERA 1.148 WHIP
Bum/Papel – 260 IP 261K 3.115 ERA 1.127 WHIP
Those numbers are pretty darn close in the grand scheme of things. So why not take Veras who will get you some saves, rather a middle relief guy who will cost the same and provide less.
If those 2 or 3 dollars is the difference between David Wright and Will Middlebrooks. Or being able to afford Joe Mauer and not overpaying for Jesus Montero it could be a major play.
If he’s a disaster from the start, you’ve lost nothing.
Your league gives you mulligans on 10ers in 14 innnings? I could’ve used that with Aroldis 2 years ago.
The ninth inning guy for the ‘Stros isn’t going to pitch enough innings for his WHIP to hurt you. 20-30 saves in the last round of the draft? Sign me up.
“With the bases empty, Veras has an ERA of just 1.06”
What does this even mean? ERA is a stat entirely dependent on sequential context. You can’t give ERA in split stats because it makes no sense. I think you are trying to interpret it as meaning he has a 1.06 ERA when starting an inning with the bases empty, but that is clearly not what this number is representing. That doesn’t even pass the smell test.
Where are you finding this? I’m assuming that the 1.06 consists entirely of solo home runs, as that is the only way to give up an earned run with the bases empty. The only thing ERA with the bases empty tells us is HR/9 with the bases empty. It is an entirely worthless stat.
You can’t use ERA like this. If you want to do something like this, use FIP. It doesn’t depend on sequential context like ERA. For what it’s worth, Veras has a higher FIP with the bases empty than with men on.
It’s a stat on the splits page. Think it means his ERA after each outing when he comes in to start an inning vs when he comes in mid-inning and there are men on base. Seems relatively valid to use.
No it isn’t.
On the splits page, fangrapaphs rightly doesn’t list ERA splits for things that change mid game like leverage, base state, l/r, etc. ERA is a sequence dependent stat. It might make sense to calculate ERA for home/road splits or something, but base state ERA makes absolutely no sense.
And now that I’m looking at it, the 153.1 IP with bases empty and 18 home runs with bases empty according to the fangraphs splits perfectly confirms what I said in my previous post. It’s entirely solo HRs. 18 runs in 153.1 innings is a 1.06 ERA.
I think he was overused in 2011, that led to a horrible 2nd half of 2011 an injury and horrible 1st half of 2012. He had a very solid 2nd half last year. I need a third closer but not sure if I should add him and drop Ryan Cook or just wait until other closer loses his job…