Damn you, internet! Damn you, hordes of fantasy sports writers churning out an over-abundance of content! It used to be so easy; so much fun. I would dominate my fantasy baseball league year after year and there was no greater ego boost than sitting there on draft day, listening to the chorus of “Who’s?” after making what I knew to be a tremendous and pretty sneaky pick in the later rounds and knowing that the player I just grabbed was going to impress all year and be a heavy trade target for my competition in no time. They used to be called sleepers. Now, thanks to all of you, they’re the trendiest picks in the draft and are losing their value year after year. Read the rest of this entry »

This offseason, as transactions unfold and news breaks on the big league level, we’ll take a look at how the ripple effects shake out on the prospect side, focusing primarily on 2013 fantasy impact, with an eye toward the future, too.

This week: The Mariners rotation won’t be as easy for a lefty in the high minors to crack; the D-backs’ third baseman of the future’s future comes into question; and the A’s utility infield prospect may fall victim to a man named Jed.

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Recent injury data

 •  Matt Kemp is aiming to be 100% helathy by opening day after shoulder surgery on October 5th. I wouldn’t count on it. I would probably drop him a round when draft day rolls around. As a general rule, I try to start the season with healthy stars.

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Trevor Cahill has come a long way in four seasons. After a questionable performance during his rookie year, Cahill has steadily improved over his career. His WAR reflects this too, as it’s risen from 0.6 to 3.4 over the last four seasons. A decent chunk of that improvement can be tied to Cahill’s strikeout rate, which has also steadily risen over his career. While Cahill has been around for what seems like a long time, he’s still young, not turning 25 until March. Because of that, it’s still plausible to think there’s a chance for Cahill to get even better.

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Right-hander Brandon Morrow has been a fantasy sleeper since transitioning to the starting rotation full-time in 2010. He’s always been a guy with electric stuff, huge strikeout rates and solid FIPs/SIERAs — but his ERA has never seemingly lived up to the billing due to low strand rates and poor command. For many owners, he became the quintessential fantasy tease the past few years: a guy with enormous potential who always disappointed in the end.

As they say…

Fool me once — 4.49 ERA in 2010 — shame on you.
Fool me twice — 4.72 ERA in 2011 — shame on me.

Fool me three times … well, that wasn’t going to happen for many owners. Consecutive years of disappointment proved too much. In fact, several people I know blacklisted Morrow and simply refused to draft him for the 2012 season.

However, those fantasy owners who drafted the right-hander last year and trusted Morrow would finally deliver on his potential were rewarded. He compiled a 2.96 ERA, cut his walk rate to a career-best 2.96 BB/9, and posted the tenth-best WHIP (1.11) among all starters who threw at least 100 innings. Injuries held him back from a top-tier fantasy season, but the message came through loud and clear: Brandon Morrow has finally arrived.

But perhaps that was the wrong message to hear.

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Well, if there’s one thing you can say about doing a lot of mock drafts, it’s that practice makes perfect. And when the world throws you a series of curveballs and you suddenly realize that time has flown by and you haven’t been able to properly prepare for your draft, you already have a pretty strong grip on what you need to do to put together a solid team. You know which players are bucking the typical ADP trends, who the guys are that tend to slip through the cracks, and where some of the popular sleepers are going. Now obviously I don’t recommend being ill-prepared for the biggest day of the fantasy year, but if you start your work early enough, then when life does give you lemons you say, “^%!# the lemonade, I’m turning this into champagne!” Read the rest of this entry »

The names just keep coming. Yesterday, the name of yet another Major League player was reported to be found in the records of Tony Bosch, the director of the Biogenesis wellness clinic in Florida. This time, Tigers shortstop Jhonny Peralta finds himself in the middle. So far, we have learned that a number of players relevant to fantasy owners have been linked to this clinic. They include Nelson Cruz, Gio Gonzalez, Melky Cabrera, Jesus Montero, Ryan Braun, Francisco Cervelli, the aforementioned Peralta, and of course, Alex Rodriguez. Some of the names were tied directly to performance-enhancing drugs in the records, while the connection isn’t as clear for the others. With a full investigation sure to follow and the very real possibility of multiple suspensions handed down, what’s an early drafter to do?

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There’s news about the Blue Jays closer! It’s not that he’s had shoulder surgery — both of the candidates have already managed that. Instead, it’s that Casey Janssen will get the first crack at the role, according to his manager. So now, instead of wondering if Sergio Santos is the guy, the question is how long Janssen will hold the role.

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They say adversity creates opportunity, whoever “they” are. But there’s likely no group that appreciates that quite as much as fantasy baseball mavens. With Chris Carpenter apparently headed for the disabled list, potentially aeternum, there’s an obvious trickle down effect on the St. Louis Cardinals rotation. The immediate beneficiaries are likely to be some combination of Joe Kelly, Trevor Rosenthal, and/or Shelby Miller.

What we know is the Cardinals still have Adam Wainwright, Jake Westbrook, and Jaime Garcia. What we don’t know is how healthy Garcia is after having his ailing shoulder derail his ability to pitch in the playoffs this past season. But uncertainty about Garcia only further cements Lance Lynn in the rotation. Lynn, as you’ll recall, was bounced from rotation to bullpen after he started to get shelled in August. It wasn’t entirely clear if they wanted to use Lynn as a potent setup man for Jason Motte or if they planned for him to start games. With Carpenter down, they probably get their answer whether they wanted it or not.

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After being lucky enough to have our friends and colleagues over at The Hardball Times invite me in for yet another mock draft (courtesy of Mock Draft Central), I jumped at the chance to take a new approach. You can find the full results of the draft here.

In my previous “expert” mock draft, I expressed my intent to go for power, even to the point of burning myself in areas of batting average and pitching. In one regard, last night’s draft was similar to the first: once again pitching took a back seat to my hitters. Rather than focus on big power and RBIs, yesterday I strived to go the opposite way and aim for average hitters with lesser power but had the chance to steal more bases. The draft was set up identical to a standard ESPN 5×5 rotisserie redraft leagues with  the exception of having a second catcher and thus 27 roster spots. Read the rest of this entry »