Who Is The Blue Jays Closer
There’s news about the Blue Jays closer! It’s not that he’s had shoulder surgery — both of the candidates have already managed that. Instead, it’s that Casey Janssen will get the first crack at the role, according to his manager. So now, instead of wondering if Sergio Santos is the guy, the question is how long Janssen will hold the role.
We know that previous performances aren’t the greatest way to predict closer changes. For example, previous year FIP is not correlated with closer changes, as much as we want it to be. So we can’t just point to Santos’ better two-year FIP or his strikeout rate as a reason for his eventual succession.
But it is worth taking apart Janssen’s production so far in case it’s not sustainable. Relievers put up numbers in such small samples that it’s hard to say definitively that Janssen will even be Janssen again. If you look at his career as a whole, he has a below-average strikeout rate (17.5%) built on a below-average swinging strikeout rate (7.9%), and even during his good seasons before last year (2010 and 2011), his 21.1% and 23.8% strikeout rates (and 8.3%, 8.4% swinging strike rates) were below average for a late-inning reliever. Added to this revelation is the fact that Janssen only averaged 91.7 mph on his fastball last year. Using Michael Barr’s xK% from last season’s FG+, you might have expected Janssen to put up a 20.9% strikeout rate instead of the actual 27.7% number he showed last season. Janssen has great control (a 6.1% career walk rate is great) and can keep the ball on the ground (48.9% ground balls career), but he’s a significant candidate for regression in the strikeout rate department.
That sort of thing might matter, considering Santos has a career 29.3% strikeout rate that is more closer-like. 148 relievers managed 40 innings last season, and their average strikeout rate was 23.04% — already Janssen’s three-year baseline is to close to average. Take the top 30 relievers by saves, though, and the average strikeout rate was 27.3% — much more Santossian.
By now, someone is screaming at their computer that Santos had shoulder surgery. By some reports, he had his labrum repaired, which would be a big deal and mean terrible things for his career. But by the words of the reliever himself, Santos had “a general cleanup” which might be considered slightly worse than the AC joint surgery that Janssen had this offseason. But it’s not a labrum tear. Most likely, they ‘smoothed out the rough edges’ on a fraying labrum, as RotoGraphs writer Dan Wade put it. Maybe Janssen is significantly more likely to be healthy this season, but this armchair doctor has it closer than it might first appear.
The first, most important question to ask when evaluating the likelihood of saves is always: “Who’s closing now?” And that question was answered by the manager when he put Casey Janssen in the first seat. But it’s clear from evaluating their stuff and looking closer at their injuries that Janssen is no sure thing. Sergio Santos is still worth drafting for the strong chance he ends up with more saves in Toronto this year — just probably a few rounds after the incumbent. Because Janssen is the one in the seat, for now.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Steve Delabar!!!
Marcus Stroman.
Tom Henke.
ME!
Even if you do believe that Janssen’s 2012 is repeatable, the K%/BB% profiles of both pitchers seem to make more sense with Santos in the 9th inning role and Janssen as a late-inning, highest-leverage reliever. Santos has the best pure strikeout stuff on the staff based on having the best out pitch in baseball in 2011 and traditional closer’s fastball velocity. However, he’s also got control issues which seem to make him more conducive to the 9th inning when he will come in with nobody on. He’ll be able to throw that wipeout slider without holding anything back.
Janssen’s got better control and seems better suited to putting out fires caused by the tail-end of the starter’s appearance or lesser relievers. I would be thrilled if the Jays used Janssen in the highest-leverage situations with Santos in the 9th inning. The only issue I see is that Janssen if he continues to perform like he did in 2012 but outside of the closer role will not necessarily get paid as well as he would if given the 9th. By the time his contract is up after 2015, it might not be such an issue if he’s fallen back to Earth, but I would hope AA would recognize he deserves to be compensated if he remains a premiere option.
What is it with the hate on Jannsen?
He’s been one of the best relievers in all of baseball over the last 2 years by any statistic.
What makes you think his K/9 will regress? There will likely be some regression to the mean but his velocity is stable and most importantly he doesn’t walk anyone and induces a ton of ground balls — so even a regression in K/9 into the 8’s won’t be all that detrimental. You haven’t done much to show why he’s a candidate for regression other than some regression in K/9. The fact that the throws 91.7 is irrelevant as he’s been very successful at that velocity for the last 2 years.
Santos can strike guys out but he’s coming off a fairly significant injury and his BB rate leaves much to be desired. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Santos come in at some point in the year but if Jannsen is performing well, I’d stick with him. It’s Casey’s job to lose.
WE have a research-backed expected strikeout rate equation that puts his expected K% for last year back in the 20% range that he’s been in his whole career. If he returns to the 20% level, yeah, he can be successful, and has been, but he’ll have a below-average strikeout rate for a closer, and basically will be relying on his control, since he doesn’t have a plus ground-ball rate.
There aren’t a lot of closers that have that statistical profile. I can’t think of a comp actually. Top 30 in saves in 2012, 20ish% strikeout rate, average ground-ball rate: Jonathan Broxton and Alfredo Aceves. That’s it. That’s not good.
As the person above says, he really has the profile of a good middle-to-late reliever.
Well what does your expected strikeout rate model put him at going into this year?
He exceeded your expectations last year and his rise in K% will probably give him an increased expected K% by your model this year. Even the best models aren’t infallible.
He also hasn’t been a 20 K% guy his whole career. Something changed in 2010 and he’s progressed ever since. He went from being a 20 K% and improved upon that mark over 3 years. I certainly expect some regression (last year’s BABIP isn’t sustainable and he isn’t getting younger) but he seems to be a unique type of closer who can close out the ninth with good control and below average K% and SwStr%.
That might profile as a good middle-to-late reliever but there’s something to be said for a guy that can get the job done and close out a game. Much of this will obviously depend on how Santos progresses but I’m giving the ninth to the guy who’s #6 overall in WPA and #19th in RA9-Wins among all relievers over the last 2 years. I hope Santos can be that guy but his injury issues and walk rate scare me. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.
Sorry that should say he went from being a 20 K%…
Weird…
Something off with your comment system.
He went from being a 13 K% guy to a 20 K% in 2010 and has improved each year since.
^
Boom!
“but…but…pen arms are so consistent year to year, and he’s been the best in baseball the last two”