Over the next three weeks, I am putting together three articles to help both existing and new ottoneu players (including one for those still thinking about ottoneu). Next week we’ll look at how the three scoring systems offered by ottoneu compare, and the week after I’ll offer some guidance for those venturing into their first ottoneu experience. In the midst of all that, expect to see a detailed breakdown of how I create projected auction values for my ottoneu leagues.

But this week, with just nine days until rosters freeze, I am going to focus on those of you in your second or third year in ottoneu, or those of you taking over abandoned teams. In many ways, the next nine days are some of the most important to your season – moves you make now can put you on the path to a title or start a downward spiral.

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Yesterday, fellow RotoGrapher Chris Cwik outlined why he considered Orioles starter Chris Tillman a sleeper. He made some valid points and even sprinkled in some of the negatives that make my argument a bit easier to make. I was actually a fan of Tillman’s last year and picked him up in several leagues shortly after his promotion. But my excitement quickly dwindled and I have revoked my membership in the Chris Tillman Fan Club. This is why.

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One pitcher trait which is consistently desired through all the various fantasy formats is health. While hitters get hurt also, pitcher injuries can really put a damper on a fantasy team because pitchers are lost for longer periods of time. By knowing which pitchers are more at risk can help a fantasy owner make better decisions on draft/auction day.

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Chris Tillman is going to be a very popular pick at the end of most drafts this season. Every year, there are a couple of guys that get touted all offseason, causing other owners to make a fuss when a team finally drafts them. In my experiences so far, Tillman is one of those guys. In an experts draft I participated in, Tillman’s selection caused the most “nice pick” messages from other owners. And in the RotoGraphs early mock, at least two other league members told me they liked Tillman where I took him. The love that Tillman has received already is going to make him a sleeper that virtually every owner knows about going into your draft. The fact that he had a 2.93 ERA is going to attract even the most basic fantasy owners. While he might not turn into a superstar this season, Tillman deserves the sleeper hype.

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Here are the first five rounds, here are another five rounds, here are the last five rounds, and now here are the final rounds of the draft. It took us six weeks, across the holidays, to do this draft. Slow drafts suck. Your RotoGraphs writers are dedicated men.

But the final rounds are my favorite. You’ll never find me groaning about them — the cost is so low here that you can finally take shots on random guys you like, and those guys are always the most fun.

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This week we finish our recounting and analysis of the RotoGraphs early mock draft. We now head toward the end game where owners are either just grabbing what’s left to fill an open positional slot or taking on starting pitcher gambles. This is my favorite point of drafts. I no longer have to worry about whether I should select a player immediately or if I can wait to grab him the following round. In these last set of rounds, I usually have a bunch of pitching spots left and have fun drafting a whole bunch of flyers I think have decent breakout potential. Let’s take a look now at which American League starting pitchers were taken, compared to where they went in last year’s RotoGraphs mock.

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You’ve seen the news no doubt. The Mariners made, in language that I would use with my three year old when he smears macaroni and cheese goo all over my wool work pants, “a bad choice.” They jettisoned John Jaso and brought in Ryan Langerhans Mike Michael Morse. The fantasy impact has already been documented in these Rotographing pages. But I’d like to expand a little on Jaso.

First of all, the title has two meanings. One real, one fake (but alas, real to us nerds). It’s not breaking news to tell you that John Jaso was unappreciated in Seattle. He’s now going to a place where, if you believe the lip service, he’s going to be appreciated. One would have to assume that appreciation, coupled with expected on-field performance, will result in playing time. So John Jaso is freed from the Eric Wedge shackles, and chances are he’s just barely north of free in your fantasy leagues. For these two reasons, you should sit up a little more straight in your chair and push your glasses up off the end of your nose.

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As some readers may know, I’m involved in a Scoresheet league heavy on current and former Baseball Prospectus types. The draft starts relatively quickly — within the next few days, I think — and I’m starting to think about my keepers for 2013.

If you’re unfamiliar, here’s how it works with keepers:

Any ‘big league’ player kept costs you a pick at the front of the draft. Any ‘minor league’ player costs you a pick on the back end.

Anyway, here’s my roster, with notes after each player: Read the rest of this entry »

This offseason, as transactions unfold and news breaks on the big league level, we’ll take a look at how the ripple effects shake out on the prospect side, focusing primarily on 2013 fantasy impact, with an eye toward the future, too.

This week: The Mariners’ 2012 first-round pick could make his debut a lot sooner; an injury opens the door for a pair of under-the-radar Pirates arms; and the Astros may convert a top pitching prospect to closer.

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The tribe has spoken. Thanks for all the player votes you included in your comments of the first edition of this year’s Pod Projections. The winner was Mark Trumbo with 5 total votes. Clearly, many of you were wondering about his second half when he hit just .227 with 10 home runs after a scorching .306, 22 home run first half. Before I dive into my projection process though, it’s important to be aware that I don’t put much stock into first half/second half splits. They have proven to have limited predictive value, so unless it was a sign of injury or there is some clear explanation that might very well continue, I mostly ignore the splits. With that caveat out of the way, let’s get to the projections.

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