Bright and early Monday morning, Zach Sanders dropped the first of his End of Season Rankings, looking at how first basemen fared during the 2012 fantasy season. The rankings are based on what actually happened on the field and use the traditional 5×5 roto categories to establish values for the production of each player.

While some of you ottoneuvians are playing a 5×5 format, many more are using the FanGraphs Points scoring system, and that type of linear weights scoring (as well as other OBP-based systems, particularly those that lower the weight on stolen bases) does not always value the same players that 5×5 leagues do. So each week, after Zach posts his rankings, I will follow with a look at where ottoneu FanGraphs Points rankings differed.

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Yes, you did read that title correctly! I know it’s early, but once you have some coffee in you, let the full gravity of this hit you! My esteemed colleague and I are back with off season Roto Riteup coverage on every Tuesday and Friday, and today we came out swinging (hooray for pop-punk!). Rather than report on the previous day’s fantasy happenings and recent trends and hot streaks, the off season RR will consist of more stories and less stats. Obviously.
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Kendrys Morales completed his first full season since fracturing his tibia in late May 2010. His injuries were not an issue in 2012, but his playing time was limited because he shared time at 1B and DH with Mark Trumbo and Albert Pujols. Morales current talent level is a bit uncertain and his playing time is even more up in the air.

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Freddie Freeman improved almost across the board in his second season. He ended up ranked 15th in our 2012 final first base rankings (with Billy Butler added in), worth about $12. If you expected him to be great, that was a disappointment. Our staff thought he would be 15th, so we nailed it. If you picked him up for a dollar or late in your draft, you were happy with his improvements.

But what did he actually do? If we can figure out if he actually broke out, then we might know a little more about his remaining potential upside.

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It’s hard to find a player who increased his fantasy value last season more than Edwin Encarnacion. For years, he was considered a late-round flyer. The type of player who would breakout and hit 30 home runs one season. But after a promising 2006, Encarnacion went backwards. And by last season, even some of his most enthusiastic supporters weren’t sure if Encarnacion would ever emerge as anything more.

Well, things changed in a big way. He went from fantasy roster fodder, to single-handedly winning leagues. The 29-year-old first baseman slugged 42 home runs and hit .280/.384/.557 in 644 plate appearances with the Blue Jays. Because both players experienced massive breakouts with the same team, Encarnacion’s performance has been compared to Jose Bautista’s 2010 season. Bautista, as we know, managed to build on that success. Now it’s Encarnacion’s turn to prove he is capable of doing the same.

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The pre-season prediction reviews continue this week and today I recap my bold hitter league leaders. Since these players were meant to be bold choices, I purposely did not pick any of the obvious guys or anyone I thought might not be considered very bold. Though I expected to hit a couple of my bold predictions, it would have been quite a surprise if I actually hit on any of these league leaguers. Let’s see how I did.

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The 2012 fantasy baseball season has come to a close, so it is time to look back at the season past and determine which players were the most valuable at each position. This week focuses on first baseman, a popular cornerstone of fantasy offenses everywhere.

The players were ranked based on their 2012 production, using the evaluation system explained and updated on this site some time ago. To keep things manageable and avoid skewing the numbers, players were only considered if they amassed 350 plate appearances over the course of the year. The replacement level was also adjusted to account for players eligible at multiples positions. The valuations are built for $260 budgets and traditional 5×5 roto fantasy leagues.

One important thing to note is the premium (or lack thereof) placed on the position a player occupies in your lineup. While a first baseman may be able to accumulate superior overall numbers, the availability of such production lower in the rankings severely dampers the amount the player was worth.

These rankings are meant to reflect a player’s value should he have occupied this spot in your lineup for the entire year. So, a player who missed time due to injury but put up great numbers during his time on the field — like Joey Votto — would be worth less.

With all this in mind, here are your rankings. Read the rest of this entry »

On Wednesday, I took a look back at who I calculated to be the most overvalued pitchers versus their pre-season average draft position (ADP). Today, I will review the pitchers I identified as the most undervalued. I had excluded the reliever turned starter group, but since I was very bullish on Chris Sale, I would guess he would have appeared had I not excluded them.

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It occurred to me while getting ready to prepare my Turtle piece — buy lows who panned out wonderfully — that I really had a pair who were virtually identical in each league. Oddly enough, it was ‘out with the old, in with the older’ as I more or less doubled down on a departed Twin — Jason Kubel — and an incoming one — Josh Willingham — as late draft power sleepers.

I think the Willingham pick was a bit more difficult to justify, though neither by themselves would be considered a ‘lock’ to produce. Willingham certainly played relatively well, hitting about half of his home runs on the road, and half at cavernous O.Co Coliseum. The 29 homers were Willingham’s largest power output home run-wise, but there was no guarantee that Target Field, which to date hadn’t been very accommodating to any sort of power hitter, would provide any sort of boost to the Hammer in his age-33 season. Read the rest of this entry »

The American League “Fantasy Turtle” has provided a good deal of fodder over the past couple of weeks.  Recall that the “fantasy turtle” is considered the best buy-low player in the AL for fantasy purposes. For more background on the fantasy awards, please see this post.

There was hardly consensus when the staff voted for this award. Alex Rios, Doug Fister, Brandon Moss (see Cwik’s Turtle argument), Torii Hunter (whom David Weirs made a case for), Carlos Santana, Derek Jeter, and Yoenis Cespedes all received at least one vote. Ben Zobrist and Max Scherzer each received three votes, so I’m going to key in on them.

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