Recently, I posted my 2012 starting pitcher DL projections. In the projections, I used games started, age, and injury history to predict the percentage chance a pitcher will end up on the DL. Today, I am going to give an initial stab at how throwing a large number of curveballs and sliders affects a pitcher’s DL chances.

I started by looking at the season after the season in which a pitcher threw over 120 innings. Normally, 39% of these pitchers will end up on the DL. The percentage increases even more if the pitcher threw a large number of sliders or curveballs.

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Matt Garza’s first four seasons in the Major Leagues were all very comparable. His ERA fluctuated between 3.69 and 3.81 while his FIP was between 4.18 and 4.42 in each season. Garza’s performance was becoming easily predictable, until he altered his pitching style last season.

Last year, Garza got away from the fastball and sinker heavy approach that he utilized in Tampa Bay. It seems as though Tampa instills a primary pitch philosophy, in which they utilize their four seam fastball, two seam fastball, or sinker more frequently than most teams. During Garza’s time in Tampa Bay, from 2008-2010, the Rays finished eighth in combined four seam, two seam, and sinker rate at 60.7%.
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Consensus Ranks: OF, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, and RP and SP.

Tiered Ranks: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, NL OF, AL SP, NL SP, Holds.

And just because I’ve just finished up watching the Angels in Spring Training, I’ll jump to an absence on this list: Mark Trumbo. He’s not there because he’s not a third baseman yet. In the game I attended, he was the DH. Despite projecting him to be the starting third baseman for the FanGraphs Positional Rankings, I now believe the Angels will mix and match at third base — as they have done before — and that Trumbo won’t be the fulltime third baseman. The team can keep saying that they want to try him there, but if they keep running Alberto Callaspo out there in the spring, their actions speak louder. That means my projection of 461 at-bats, 24 home runs and a .243 batting average could really be dead-on. That’s a crowded team. If that more conservative projection holds true, Trumbo would be worth a little less than Lonnie Chisenhall on my list.

I don’t hate Pablo Sandoval, I just think that a couple of third-basemen will offer more well-rounded lines or more power. Ryan Roberts was held in different esteem by most of us — I felt that even with regression he’d be useful. It’s a little strange to see Daniel Murphy so close to David Freese despite the only Mets fan in the room being sour on his projections. Here’s the thing I may have factored more heavily than the others: Murphy is playing second base again, where he’s blown out his knee two straight years making the turn on double plays. My projections are not heavy on playing time.

The rest of our rankings are pretty similar. Well, we’ll see about Pedro Alvarez.
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You have read the rest of the staff’s bold predictions, now it’s finally time for the man who inspired them all to unveil his. Luckily, my crystal ball is the clearest it has ever been!

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With the 2012 season just a few short weeks away, it’s time for the return of the Roto Riteup to the RotoGraphs lineup. If you were not reading the site late last season, this will be new to you. And you will enjoy it.

Now, onto the notes for the day:

• Cespedes’ First Impression
• Yoenis Cespedes not only homered in his American debut, but he crushed the ball and even took a walk in his first trip to the plate. Whether or not he starts in the minors is going to be a fluid decision for the A’s, but I’m willing to bet he spends at least a few weeks in the minors getting his legs under him and adapting to his new life. The A’s already seem to have a full outfield, so they aren’t going to be in any hurry to rush his development any more than they already have with his contract. Read the rest of this entry »

OK, so the language in the title might be a bit inflammatory.  I can’t, with 100% certainty, say that I absolutely, positively won’t draft these guys, but based on the current chatter and their ADP rankings, they will not be targets for me.  Now, if they somehow slipped a few rounds and it looks like they could, potentially, be a bargain, then I might think otherwise, but that’s a pretty big “if” for me right now.  Here’s who I’m avoiding… Read the rest of this entry »

Eno Sarris published the staff’s reliever rankings earlier today, and now it’s my turn to dissect them. I have written a ton of articles on relievers since coming over to RotoGraphs in late January, so if you want to look at my specific feelings on certain relievers, you can just click my name over on the right hand side of the screen and see my in depth thoughts.

– The first thing I noticed on these rankings is how close John Axford and Joel Hanrahan are. I have commented on this a few times this year and see Hanrahan as an undervalued reliever, with the only slight against him being the possibility for a future trade.

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1. Under almost no circumstance, fly through O’Hare. It is not worth it.

2. On Wednesday, in his first spring training game, Jonathan Sanchez’s fastball was off by 2-3 MPH. He may get the speed back. He may not. If a person has a draft before his next start, there is a no need to pick up a below average pitcher with velocity issues. Just go for the below average pitcher with no velocity issues.

More fastball speed updates

3. Ubaldo Jimenez fastball (94 to 96 MPH) is closer to his 2009 and 2010 levels (96 MPH) than 2011 levels (93.5 MPH) .

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I think it was Edison that once said something to the effect of “opportunity occurs when good fortune meets preparation.” While motivational quotes might not inspire Kyle Seager, this should be written in fancy calligraphy across his baseball card, because it’s opportunity that keeps falling into his lap.

The Spring started with the Seattle Mariners committing to Chone Figgins as their leadoff hitter, which was probably going to place him at third base a fair amount of time. They also had Carlos Guillen in camp to provide some third base insurance and perhaps some of that veteran savvy crap. This likely relegated Seager into some kind of utility role or perhaps having his ticket already punched for Tacoma.

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