Evaluating Our Reliever Rankings
Eno Sarris published the staff’s reliever rankings earlier today, and now it’s my turn to dissect them. I have written a ton of articles on relievers since coming over to RotoGraphs in late January, so if you want to look at my specific feelings on certain relievers, you can just click my name over on the right hand side of the screen and see my in depth thoughts.
– The first thing I noticed on these rankings is how close John Axford and Joel Hanrahan are. I have commented on this a few times this year and see Hanrahan as an undervalued reliever, with the only slight against him being the possibility for a future trade.
– I also really like how highly regarded Rafael Betancourt and Sergio Santos are. Betancourt’s ADP on Mock Draft Central is 23 among relievers, 23! He is much better than that, and our guys were right in putting him inside the top 10. The same is true for Santos, who was ranked ninth by our consensus but has an ADP of 17.
– One place I don’t agree with the rest of the staff is on Jordan Walden. I have him at 13, just as Zach does. I can see why there would be varying opinions on him though, as his strikeout rate and walk rate last year do not correlate with his minor league marks.
– The range of our staff’s ranking on Kenley Jansen is pretty wide. Obviously, this was done before the most recent occurrence of his heart issues (which have apparently been cleared up by a doctor), but Jeff has him at 7 while Mike has him at 26. The big issue is if, or when, he will become the closer for the Dodgers. I suspect Jeff thinks that will happen sooner than later, which is certainly plausible.
– In contrast, Addison Reed also has a wide range but seems to be a bit undervalued, at least in my opinion. Zach has him at 25 while Jeff has him at 50. His situation is similar to Jensen’s, as most expect him to become the closer for the White Sox but it is difficult to determine when.
– I love their Chris Perez ranking of 33. He’s not good, he’s currently injured, and his set up man is a better pitcher than him. Pestano being ranked ahead of him, albeit slightly, is an accurate ranking.
– Something else I have noticed in their rankings and in draft preparation is that the middle tier of closers is pretty solid. While it is nice to get one of the top tier closers who rack up the strikeouts, guys like Andrew Bailey, Kyle Farnsworth, and Brandon League can fill out a fantasy bullpen nicely. I hardly ever like to be the first to draft relievers, and targeting these guys along with Santos and Betancourt, who I have already spoken about, seems like a good strategy on draft day.
– I won’t comment on the rankings of the expected starters who are currently ranked as relievers. The guys have explained those rankings in that post and in the comment section.
Ben has been at RotoGraphs since 2012 and focuses most of his fantasy baseball attention toward dynasty and keeper leagues.
comments on where Frank Francisco is ranked? As I stated in the original thread, I believe he is being highly undervalued.
I would also like to hear the writers thoughts on Francsico. Is it because he’s an injury risk? Or you expect him to get traded? I can understand those concerns pushing him down a bit. But he’s got no clear competition for the job, and he’s always been a great performer when he’s pitching.
We are the 99% who think Francisco is drastically underrated by your rankings.
The Francisco ranking is likely due to the steadily declining strikeout to walk rate. Both numbers inching towards each other is certainly not a positive sign.
Did you guys factor in holds by chance? I’m in two leagues with different approaches to the matter, one a 7×7 H2H league has it as a standard category and so they’re on par with saves meaning that your rankings are way out of line with that league’s ranks.
The second league is a points league, where saves are worth 5 points and a hold is worth 3.5. Given that holds factor in, but not to the degree of saves makes me feel like your rankings are similar to how RP’s should valued in that league.
But in standard Yahoo! leagues, wouldn’t it be best to take any known closer (at least RP’s known to be starting with a closer gig) and then pile up the setup men getting promoted to the coveted 9th inning spotlight?
I guess I’m just wondering how these different formats could effect certain guys like Sergio Romo, Antonio Bastardo, and Ernesto Frieri who all seem to have great potential in the first two formats but are likely to be undrafted in a standard Yahoo! league.
No, they haven’t done any of these rankings corrently yet.
This series should be called “Fangraphs half-asses a bunch of lists”.;
I think that that’s going a little far. I mean, yeah, sure they should have all been on the same page as far as using position eligibility, but otherwise their rankings have been decent for standard 12 team 5×5 leagues. Everyone should adjust the rankings anyway based on their own league’s rules and standards anyway.
My comment wasn’t meant as criticism but instead a question of methodology and how they would have adjusted accordingly.