We FanGraphers decided we couldn’t wait any longer. Why wait until March when you could draft NOW?! Not only did we mock it up last night, but we assumed a keeper league. WOAH. We gathered 12 of our most intelligent, hilarious and handsome writers, used standard roster sizes minus one catcher and drafted five reserves. I know you are dying to find out how the action unfolded, but before I begin the process of unveiling the winning team (mine, obviously), I will share my keeper league philosophy/strategy for the draft.

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The Chicago Cubs recently acquired Ian Stewart, ostensibly to man the position vacated by Aramis Ramirez. While those are pretty big shoes to fill, Stewart certainly has some intrigue relative to his fantasy baseball value.

Stewart, 26, seems to be a perennial sleeper on draft lists due to his singular ability to hit the ball out of the park. But both his real-life employer and his fantasy managers grew tired of his inability to make consistent contact, dragging his batting average into the range where he was barely useful — and then in 2011, the wheels fell off and he found himself routinely driving between Colorado Springs and Denver.

Stewart now gets the popular “change of scenery” to attempt to make a fresh start and revive the promise that made him a first round draft pick back in 2003. Will he be able to do it is the big question, of course.

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Let’s talk winter meetings, and the impact thereof on leagues fantasy and real. I’ll be here at 12:30, but you can leave a question in the queue if you want to get a jump on it.

The Rockies parted with Huston Street at the GM meetings on Wednesday, trading him to the Padres for a player to be named later. The move saves Colorado $7 million that they hope to put toward acquiring a durable starter or a third baseman, but the reason the Rox were comfortable swapping Street is that they have a top-tier reliever ready for a shot at the closer’s spot. While Rafael Betancourt has to look over his shoulder at the likes of Rex Brothers, Matt Belisle and Matt Lindstrom, he’s got all the skills necessary to rank among the game’s best stoppers.

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The Rockies seem hell-bent on stockpiling low-cost arms this offseason, and there seem to be plenty of willing partners out there with arms to spare. After bringing in Tyler Chatwood from the Angels, Dan O’Dowd and his team acquired Kevin Slowey from the Twins for a player to be named later, who would turn out to be Daniel Turpen. Read the rest of this entry »

C.J. Wilson is headed from the 2011 American League Champs to the 2011 American League West Division Runners-up (somehow, I don’t think they will be raising that last banner in Anaheim any time soon). This has huge implications for the division – the Angels finished 10 games out in 2011, with Wilson producing a WAR of 5.9. Move those 6 wins off the Rangers and put even half of them on the Angels, and you have yourself an awfully tight race.

But there are rather large implications for fantasy owners, as well. Wilson’s ERA, WHIP, K, and Wins — the traditional Roto stats — will all be impacted by the move, as will stats like HR, 2B, 3B, and BB, which impact many leagues, including most ottoneu leagues. There are a few things a fantasy player should look at in evaluating this type of change, and Wilson to LAA presents a unique change where some of the changing factors are easier than normal to isolate. Of course most of you can probably predict that a move to Anaheim will help Wilson’s value, but that isn’t really the point — this is also a chance to look at how to evaluate the impact of a scenery change on a pitcher.

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We have completed the keeper tiers, but that does not mean the keeper analysis ends. Today I will take a look at another two putcher who did not quite make the tiers, but might still have value in AL-Only leagues.

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On Tuesday, the Mets added right-handers Jon Rauch, Frank Francisco and Ramon Ramirez via trade or free agency to their bullpen. Francisco looks to be the default closer out of the 3. The following is a quick look at how the bullpen probably will shake out.

First, here are the career stats for each pitcher:

Francisco: 9.9 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.72 ERA
Ramirez: 7.7, K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.16 ERA
Rauch: 7.2 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, 3.82 ERA

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The San Diego Padres appear to have their closer.

After watching Heath Bell leave in free agency, many expected the Padres to look to their own pen to find their late-inning solution — but on Wednesday morning, they have reportedly acquired Huston Street from the Colorado Rockies for the reliable player to be named later. The trade for the Rockies is almost assuredly to clear cash in an effort to create flexibility for other moves, but until we learn more about their own plans for the closer role, the fantasy impact for now is that Huston Street’s stock just rose pretty significantly.

Why? The happiest place on Earth to pitch, of course.

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The second of our two tiers, these five relievers offer tons of strikeouts while keeping their ERAs and WHIPs down around the level typically associated with most elite closers. These guys are also an injury or two away from save chances, and it’s always good to know the bullpen pecking orders heading into the season.

Zach Sanders’ end of season values have been included for reference, but that’s all they’re here for. The rankings were not based on then exclusively.

Tier One (link)
Tyler Clippard
Mike Adams
Jonny Venters
Sean Marshall
Daniel Bard

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