2012 AL Starting Pitching Keeper Rankings: More Leftovers

We have completed the keeper tiers, but that does not mean the keeper analysis ends. Today I will take a look at another two putcher who did not quite make the tiers, but might still have value in AL-Only leagues.

Brandon McCarthy

I’m not usually one to gloat, but I cannot discuss McCarthy without mentioning my pre-season post calling him a great risk/reward option in AL-Only leagues. Of course, my projection wasn’t nearly optimistic enough, and no one’s was, but it did seem like he was truly transforming into a new pitcher. And that is exactly what happened. His SIERA and xFIP marks were almost right in line with his ERA, so it wasn’t good luck.

So why didn’t he make the tiers? A couple of reasons. First, there is little chance he repeats a 1.3 BB/9. His F-Strike% was pretty good, but barely better than his 2009 season when he posted a 3.3 walk rate and certainly not high enough to suggest the third best walk rate in the league. So that is going to rise. Next, his strikeout rate is just blah. It is not terrible, but not high enough to produce much value. Last, he’s an Athletic, which means run support will be tough to come by. His ERA is likely to jump into the high-3.00’s next season, which is still very solid for an AL hurler, but makes it difficult for him to generate much mixed league value.

Alexi Ogando

The Rangers are apparently a reliever turned successful starter factory, which bodes well for their next experiment, Neftali Feliz. Ogando transitioned from a flame throwing reliever, who had only previously started three games in Double-A in 2010, to one of the surprises of the 2011 season. He was fantastic in the first half of the season, but that was mostly due to some great fortune on balls in play and home runs per fly ball. In the second half, his luck ran out, but his underlying peripherals were quite similar. Though it appears on the surface he may have burned out from the heavier workload, it was really just the luck pendulum swinging the other way.

On the season as a whole, Ogando still benefited from some good luck, as his xFIP and SIERA marks were nearly 4.00, versus a 3.51 ERA. It is going to be tough to post another 7.8% HR/FB ratio pitching half your games in Texas. The Rangers had a pretty good defense by UZR/150, which likely helped keep his BABIP below league average, but you cannot expect another .265 mark. Surprisingly, despite averaging 95 miles per hour with his fastball, his strikeout rate was rather pedestrian and he only induced swinging strikes at a slightly above average clip. The problem may lie with the fact that he is essentially a two-pitch pitcher. If he improves his change-up and starts throwing it more frequently, then his strikeout rate should jump and he may be able to post a legitimate mid-3.00 ERA. But until then, he won’t be anything special in any category and is unlikely to pitch 200 innings.