With a little more than a month left in the season, the SIERA underperformer list is less about this year and mostly about next season. You could use the list in two ways: to target pitchers to acquire before your trading deadline (if you have one) that might come cheaper than expected given their SIERA underperformance or to get an early idea of who might be undervalued during next year’s drafts.
With Kevin Youkilis taking his familiar place on the disabled list, it seems an appropriate time to reflect on what has been a bit of a strange season for him, and what better way to do that than to badger you with graphs?
The season started rather ominously as Youkilis struggled to keep his batting average above .200 through March and April and yet was still looking a lot like the walk-machine we’ve all grown used to. Much was made of an uncharacteristically low BABIP to begin the season that left his triple-slash at .218/.392/.487 headed into May. He was still hitting for power, but simply wasn’t getting much in the way of lucky bounces for a guy that has carried a pretty robust .330 BABIP on his career. With a BABIP rise and a concomitant batting average lift, his first half line represented classic Youkilis home cookin’ at .285/.399/.512.
The Red Sox are already one of the three best teams in baseball and arguably have the best offense in the land. They possess the highest team batting WAR and the second highest wOBA in baseball. Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury and Adrian Gonzalez are all MVP candidates. David Ortiz and his team leading .404 wOBA is almost an afterthought. So is always exceptional Kevin Youkilis. Well, Ortiz and Youkilis are injured, leaving a void in the lineup. What do the Red Sox do to fill it? They call up one of the hottest hitters in all of the minor leagues, naturally.
Much has been made of the season Ryan Lavarnway is having. He hit well in Double-A putting up an .869 OPS in 239 plate appearances, but he’s really shined in his stint in Triple-A. With Pawtucket he’s put up a line of .301/.385/.608 with 16 home runs and a .306 ISO in 239 plate appearances. He’s always hit for power, smacking 21 homers in 2009 and 25 in 2010. Lavarnway’s numbers are even more impressive when you consider that Pawtucket is in the International League, which isn’t the hitter’s haven the Pacfic Coast League is. League average in the IL is .260/.330/.401, which pity in comparison to Lavarnway.
The biggest struggle for him has been getting comfortable at catcher. He played more games at DH than catcher at Double-A, but has reverted back to his backstop ways at Triple-A, presumably so the Red Sox can get him ready for 2012 if Jason Varitek isn’t retained. He won’t play much, if any, catcher while up with the big league club, sticking to DH duties while Ortiz is out. There’s no exact time table for Ortiz’s return from right heel bursitis but it seems likely he’ll be out at least a week, maybe two, which gives Lavarnway time to showcase his talents for a possible place on the postseason roster. Rosters expand in the next few weeks so it’s likely that Lavarnway remains with the Red Sox for the rest of the season, though his at bats will be limited if Ortiz comes back healthy.
He started last night’s game and batted seventh. He’s bound to receive many opportunities to pick up RBI no matter where he bats in the Red Sox order. He’s a solid pickup in deep A.L. only leagues and is a good candidate to stash away in keeper leagues due to his power from the feeble catcher position.
In the hours after yesterday’s Mining the Minors column was posted, the Red Sox promoted Ryan Lavarnway. The 24-year-old catcher got his due in this space three weeks ago for mashing baseballs all year long. At the time of that write-up, I didn’t see an easy fit for him in Boston until September roster expansion, but with Kevin Youkilis hitting the DL and David Ortiz battling a heel issue, Lavarnway got the call a couple weeks earlier than expected. Considering he’s known more for his stick (30 HRs this year) than his glove, he’s likely to see some time at designated hitter in addition to any opportunities behind the plate. As a savvy add in leagues that require a second starting catcher, Lavarnway is worth a look. My colleague Erik Hahmann will have more in just a bit, so check back here shortly.
Until then, though, here’s a trio players who might soon be up and contributing.
Alex Gordon has generally been seen as a disappoint since being called up to the majors. After spending a couple seasons bouncing to and from the majors and the minors, he is finally producing like he was somewhat expected to when he was drafted as the #2 overall pick out of Nebraska. Gordon’s break out this season isn’t really a breakout, he has always produced at this level in the majors.
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Lucas Duda (Yahoo: 5 percent owned, ESPN: 5 percent owned)
While the Mets likely weren’t planning on having Duda at first for a large portion of their season, that’s the way things have shaken out in Queens. He struggled to make a mark with the inconsistent playing time he got in the early part of the season, but since the Mets have committed to him being in the lineup nearly everyday on July 28, he has rewarded them with a solid line of .288/.364/.500. While that’s a serviceable line, Duda wasn’t providing the power typically associated with first basemen…until August rolled around.
Duda has hit three of his five home runs since August 1, including jacks on back-to-back days, the last of which was a sizable smash in San Diego. It’s this new power that has made him a person of interest, as without it, he’s a decidedly less interesting option. The power first showed up last season, when Duda hit 40 doubles and 23 home runs between Double- and Triple-A, so this year’s outbreak isn’t unprecedented, in fact, Duda hit five home runs in the last 10 games before his call up after having hit only five total in April and May.
It isn’t as though Duda raked all through the minors and is just now getting a chance to do it in the pros. He had shown good doubles power, but the home runs are a relatively new addition, which makes it somewhat harder to predict whether they’re going to persist. His hot month overstates his ability, but 15-20 given a full season of consistent playing time doesn’t seem outlandish. Anything more than about 3 HR a month is a bonus.
His low ownership makes him a possibility in almost any league and while I’d certainly rather have him over someone like Brett Wallace or Adam Kennedy (both owned at the same 5 percent rate as Duda on Yahoo), I’d rather pick up Mike Carp if he’s still available.
Josh Willingham (Yahoo: 34 percent owned, ESPN: 74 percent owned)
Most of the guys investigated in this space are having a strong month so far, but Willingham is something of an exception. He’s playing well enough lately to merit attention, but on the heels of a July where he hit .324/.429/.618, a line of .233/.299/.550 in August seems to pale by comparison. Nevertheless, Willingham is continuing to show good power in the middle of the Athletics’ order, having recorded 9 XBH in 15 games this month.
While his power is certainly playable, that .233 batting average is less inspiring. It isn’t quite Mark Reynolds-esque (Reynolds is 11-for-59 this month, but seven of his 11 hits have gone for extra bases, including 4 HR) but it’s ungood enough to worry about. His monthly BABIP is .273, a 50 point drop from his stellar July, due largely to a bloated IFFB% of 27 percent, something that should fall more in line with his career rate of 12 percent sooner rather than later.
That high pop-up rate, as well as a season high strike out rate, and season low walk rate makes it seem as though Willingham is just being a bit too aggressive at the plate. He doesn’t need to overhaul his game, just to be a bit more patient at the plate, and his batting average should rise out of worrisome territory. If you’re in a league that penalizes for strikeouts, however, Willingham may not be the best player to target. This month, he has as many three strikeout games as he does games in which he drew a walk, and that’s a fairly substantial price to pay for the level of production Willingham is likely to give you the rest of the way.
The first half of the 2011 season saw two of the game’s better power hitters fall into a veritable abyss when it came to production. Both players were joining new teams, both signed big contracts, and both were drafted with home run expectations that were sky high. But both Dan Uggla and Adam Dunn struggled mightily to begin the year, and while those that drafted them were becoming more and more frustrated by the day, other GMs were sitting back and licking their chops, waiting for the moment of a huge buy-low opportunity. Those that tried it with Uggla just finished reaping the benefits of a 33 game hit streak and a .361-12-28 second half run. Those of us who chose Dunn? Well….not so much. Read the rest of this entry »
The return of a preseason fantasy darling leads off this week’s pitcher-heavy column.
