As the MLB non-waiver trade deadline approaches, fantasy owners should be paying close attention to which teams may be buyers, which teams may be sellers, and which relevant fantasy players could be on the move.  A look at which players whose contracts expire at season’s end and are headed into free agency is as good a place to start as any. Read the rest of this entry »

Time to update the ranks! As always, this ranking is more about performance the rest of the way than performance in the bank. On the other hand, this is not just a ZiPs RoS ranking. Human opinion introduces human error, but our minds are plastic and there’s at least the chance we can get ahead of the trends. So let’s try. Oh, and arrows denote a change in tier, not a change in rank.

Everyone’s All-Stars
Ryan Braun
Matt Kemp
Matt Holliday
Andrew McCutchen
Carlos Gonzalez
Justin Upton

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By now you’ve read about our RotoGraphs deep-league Pick Six-like draft. For a refresher, here’s Mr. Bender’s rundown of the process and his draft strategy, as well as the method to the madness behind Mr. Sarris’ selections, and if you’re looking for the full draft recap, check Mr. Zimmerman’s post. Now allow me to explain my choices, starting with No. 2 overall.

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Here’s a pair of Padres pitchers (always a good demographic to target) that could give your pitching staff a boost…

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As the season progresses, teams will be looking to sit rookie pitchers to prevent injuries. Here is a look at the work loads of previous rookie pitchers and what to expect from the current crop of good rookie pitchers.

Teams have always worried about injuring the arms of young pitchers and this worry has expanded after the Verducci Effect was published. Some studies have shown the negative effects of over throwing young pitchers to be minimal, but that has not stopped teams from shutting down their young arms, especially rookies.

Here is a list of the top 3 rookie pitchers (removed K-Dice from 2007 data because he was not a real rookie) in IP from each of the past 4 completed seasons:

The average number of IP from these top throwing rookies is 178 IP with the top value being 193 IP (Nick Blackburn in 2008). The average number of starts is 30 with the highest number being 33 (also Nick Blackburn). Using these numbers as a general rule, I would use 180 IP and 30 GS as a top limit for projecting GS and IP for rookie pitchers this season.

Here is a look at a few of the top rookie pitchers this season and a projected number of GS for the rest of the season:

The GS (ROS) is based on using subtracting 30 GS from the number of GS they have so far this season. GS (ROS based on IP) is found by taking 180 IP subtracting the IP pitched so far and then dividing by the pitcher’s IP/GS.

Owners of these players may need to look at finding possible substitutes for these pitchers once they are shut down. If the league is not a keeper league, just drop the player when the team is done starting them and find a starter that will be facing expanded/water downed September rosters.

Owners of these pitchers in keeper leagues, may need to trade them off before the deadline if their team looks to have a chance of winning. This is especially true in H2H keeper leagues. One or more of these rookie pitchers may have helped the owner get to the playoffs. If the rookie is not available in the playoffs, the owner only has himself to blame for not trading him off earlier for a pitcher that may go the entire season.

Entering the 2011 season, it was easily the worst of times for two New York Mets’ outfielders. Both Carlos Beltran and Jason Bay entered the season facing similar concerns. Due to injuries, general ineffectiveness, and age both players were considered risky fantasy options entering 2011. Despite the fact that both players entered 2011 dealing with the same issues, their performances up to this point in the season could not be more different. While Bay hasn’t looked the same since a concussion prematurely ended his 2010, Beltran looks reinvigorated as a right fielder. Now that we’ve reached the half way point of the season, let’s take a look at each player’s performance thus far.
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Sports fans love to prove their knowledge. They simply need to show that they know more than other fans, their friends and their family. Fantasy owners take that concept even further by putting money where their mouth is. Whether projecting breakouts, predicting busts or drafting minor leaguers they expect to become the next superstar, there are countless opportunities for fantasy owners to show they know their stuff. Unfortunately, for as much as we think we might know about the game and explaining player performance, there are examples every season that convince me that in fact, we don’t know jack.

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America learned yesterday that Yankees’ third baseman Alex Rodriguez has a small tear in his right meniscus. A-Rod has two options regarding his injury: he can choose to play through it, or he could opt for surgery that would land him on the DL for about a month’s time, allowing him to come back for the playoff run. Rodriguez has yet to make his decision, instead seeking a second opinion this afternoon.

If A-Rod opts for surgery, odds are Eduardo Nunez is going to be the first in line for playing time at the hot corner in New York. Nunez stepped in for Derek Jeter after The Captain landed on the DL, and he played relatively well. We only have a little more than 180 plate appearances to judge Nunez with, but his skill set appears pretty evident within that small sample.

Nunez, 24, has done a great job of limiting strikeouts in his major league career, allowing him to have a solid batting average despite lower BABIPs. Nunez also has some speed on the basepaths, stealing ten bags in fourteen tries this season, but he is no burner who is going to win you the steals category. All in all, Nunez will probably give you a .275 average with a handful of steals if A-Rod misses a month, along with good runs scored and RBIs thanks to the Yankees lineup. Even if you have a solid third baseman, Nunez is eligible at SS, so he’s not just a one trick pony.

If A-Rod does decide to play through his injury, Nunez will still have some value for certain owners in deep leagues. We all know third base has been a pretty poor position the last couple of years, so options on the waiver wire tend to be few and far between. If A-Rod is playing hurt, then owners will likely want a solid backup option in case he breaks down, or for when he is forced to take a day off. Nunez will likely play if A-Rod breaks down or gets a day off, and could even see time if the Yankees choose to rotate A-Rod through the DH slot once or twice a week to limit his discomfort, and you could slot Nunez into your shortstop spot on those days if you were so inclined.

Let’s take an All-Star break look at the top five starting pitchers who are most underperforming their xFIP marks. We are still nowhere close to reaching the number of batters faced for ERA to stabilize, as research has found it to be above the 750 PA mark, which represents the high value of the interval tested. As a result, going forward xFIP has much more predictive power.

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There’s a new development at third base as we head into the All-Star Break: optimism. Third base surely isn’t considered a deep position but there have been some recent performances that make third base not such a hold-your-nose proposition as it used to be. We have had several third basemen come off the disabled list recently as well as a number of guys sustaining performance that smelled a little fishy just a month ago. On to the rankings!

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