Starting Pitcher xFIP Underperformers

Let’s take an All-Star break look at the top five starting pitchers who are most underperforming their xFIP marks. We are still nowhere close to reaching the number of batters faced for ERA to stabilize, as research has found it to be above the 750 PA mark, which represents the high value of the interval tested. As a result, going forward xFIP has much more predictive power.

Fausto Carmona has been bitten by an inflated HR/FB ratio and an absurdly low 59.4% LOB%. He is pitching nearly identically to last year though, as his xFIP- is the exact same 102 and his pitch mix has essentially been the same. He is actually inducing the highest SwStk% since 2007, while his F-Strike% is at a career high. This should give AL-Only owners some optimism that a second half rebound is in the cards and for non-owners, an opportunity to acquire him cheaply if you are in dire need of pitching help.

Chris Volstad has displayed similar skills to Carmona, though with a little less extreme ground ball tilt. He has also been hurt by a huge HR/FB ratio, but unfortunately he has experienced this before, back in 2009. Like Carmona, the lack of strikeouts limit his fantasy value, but he should certainly enjoy better luck in the second half . His velocity has also ticked up in recent starts, which is a good sign for perhaps a strikeout rate spike.

About three weeks ago, we ran bullish and bearish articles on Ryan Dempster. I bravely took the bearish side despite the obvious dramatic differential between his ERA and xFIP. In his three starts since, he has posted a 2.79 ERA, so far making me look foolish. Despite an increased K/9, his SwStk% is at a career low, and Contact% a career high. That makes me think his strikeout rate is headed for a fall. The Cubs defense also is not doing him any favors and likely won’t anytime soon, as their UZR/150 ranks sixth to last in baseball. Will Dempster’s ERA improve from its current 4.99 mark? Yes. But now dealing with back issues as well, I don’t think he is the same pitcher as he was over the last couple of years and I would not expect an ERA near his 3.36 xFIP over the rest of the season.

Bronson Arroyo is the first pitcher here who even with neutral luck would still have an ERA above 4.00. Interestingly, he is pitching better than last year, with a slight K/9 improvement and better control, while his xFIP- is nearly identical. But last year he enjoyed some great fortune, while the luck pendulum has swung the other way this season. His HR/FB ratio should drop, which would allow him to strand a higher percentage of baserunners, but this is still a mediocre pitcher at best with limited fantasy value upside given his pedestrian strikeout rate. He is not worth pursuing in any leagues.

Matt Garza has been a mystery all seasons with his crazy surface stats and underlying metrics. Predictably, his strikeout rate has declined after the lofty 11.9 mark he posted in April. His BABIP remains a tad high, but that is actually supported by a 23% LD%. As discussed with Dempster, the Cubs defense stinks and so automatically assuming Garza’s BABIP will drop toward league average or even his own career mark is misguided. Though, the low 62.9% LOB% should definitely improve. I think Garza does make for a good acquisition target, but don’t think you are getting a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher here. It is likely he underperforms his xFIP all season.