Shutting Down Rookie Pitchers
As the season progresses, teams will be looking to sit rookie pitchers to prevent injuries. Here is a look at the work loads of previous rookie pitchers and what to expect from the current crop of good rookie pitchers.
Teams have always worried about injuring the arms of young pitchers and this worry has expanded after the Verducci Effect was published. Some studies have shown the negative effects of over throwing young pitchers to be minimal, but that has not stopped teams from shutting down their young arms, especially rookies.
Here is a list of the top 3 rookie pitchers (removed K-Dice from 2007 data because he was not a real rookie) in IP from each of the past 4 completed seasons:
| Name | GS | IP | Year |
| Matusz | 32 | 175 | 2010 |
| Niese | 30 | 173 | 2010 |
| Davis | 29 | 168 | 2010 |
| Hiemann | 30 | 180 | 2009 |
| Cahill | 32 | 178 | 2009 |
| Romero | 29 | 178 | 2009 |
| Blackburn | 33 | 193 | 2008 |
| G. Smith | 32 | 190 | 2008 |
| J. Jurrjens | 31 | 188 | 2008 |
| Guthrie | 26 | 175 | 2007 |
| Chico | 31 | 167 | 2007 |
| Bannister | 27 | 165 | 2007 |
| Average | 30.2 | 177.5 |
The average number of IP from these top throwing rookies is 178 IP with the top value being 193 IP (Nick Blackburn in 2008). The average number of starts is 30 with the highest number being 33 (also Nick Blackburn). Using these numbers as a general rule, I would use 180 IP and 30 GS as a top limit for projecting GS and IP for rookie pitchers this season.
Here is a look at a few of the top rookie pitchers this season and a projected number of GS for the rest of the season:
The GS (ROS) is based on using subtracting 30 GS from the number of GS they have so far this season. GS (ROS based on IP) is found by taking 180 IP subtracting the IP pitched so far and then dividing by the pitcher’s IP/GS.
| Name | GS (so far) | GS (ROS) | IP (so far) | IP/GS | GS (ROS based on IP) |
| Pineda | 18 | 12 | 113 | 6.3 | 10.3 |
| Britten | 18 | 12 | 104 | 5.8 | 12.7 |
| Ogando | 17 | 13 | 104 | 6.1 | 12.0 |
| Hellickson | 16 | 14 | 103 | 6.4 | 11.6 |
Owners of these players may need to look at finding possible substitutes for these pitchers once they are shut down. If the league is not a keeper league, just drop the player when the team is done starting them and find a starter that will be facing expanded/water downed September rosters.
Owners of these pitchers in keeper leagues, may need to trade them off before the deadline if their team looks to have a chance of winning. This is especially true in H2H keeper leagues. One or more of these rookie pitchers may have helped the owner get to the playoffs. If the rookie is not available in the playoffs, the owner only has himself to blame for not trading him off earlier for a pitcher that may go the entire season.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Britton, not Britten. Otherwise, good stuff.
how about an article on some suggestions for low-owned SP’s who might have very favorable matchups towards the end of the 2nd half?
Jordan Zimmermann of the Nats needs to be mentioned here. It’s widely reported by Nats beat writers that he will be shut down around 160 innings, and he’s sitting at 115. Probably only 8 more starts for him.
Brandon Beachy and Cory Luebke are looking really good right about now…
K-Dice? I guess it’s nitpicking, but uh, it hurts credibility to get stuff like that wrong.
this is why i traded Pineda, thank you
What’s the status on Beachy going forward?
He already doesn’t go very deep into games. Will he be shut down?
He was out awhile with injury so he probably won’t be held back. Besides, the Braves are in the midst of a playoff run.
I consider having Pineda, Hellickson, and Beachy for the next few years more important than pushing for the playoffs in my H2H-dynasty league (partly because I am just in fourth).
What about Mat Latos last year? Also, if the team is in the playoff race I would have to believe they won’t shut the pitcher down, but rather just maybe skip a start here are there or let the pitcher have an extra couple days of rest.
Jon
The M’s have already said that they will not be shutting down Pineda due to his workload in the minors last year. Is this announcement to be ignored, or should I use it as a way to soothe skeptical trading partners and try to extract maximum value in a trade?
What the Mariners say and what they do will not necessarily be the same. I think it will be a matter of how well they do in the playoff race. If they can keep things tight, they might just let Pineda go all season. If they start to fall behind, they might suddenly decide that caution is prudent.
the Mariners have already said they have no plans of limiting Pineda’s innings this year, and they have reiterated it a number of times.
for instance: http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/06/27/mariners-wont-limit-rookie-michael-pinedas-workload/
What a joke it is when it comes to babying pitchers. Look at how the Yankees have handled their rookie pitchers. They turned Joba into a basket case. Hughes broke down anyway. MLB clubs need to follow a page from Nolan Ryan’s book. Work, work and then more work. If a guy is going to have arm trouble you might as well find out early.
Is offering Stubbs Pineda and A throw in CI for Prince giving up Too Much? I am fearful of what the M’s will actually do with him,….