This post is coming way too early. According to past research, ISO takes 550 plate appearances to stabilize, the highest number required of the various statistics studied. However, waiting until near the end of the season to tell you whose early season power increases were sustainable is, well, kind of pointless. So as usual when analyzing players this early in the season, we have to use what we have, and that means trying to draw some conclusions from such tiny sample sizes. Since I love to compare players to themselves from previous seasons, here are the top 10 hitters with increased ISO marks versus 2010.

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This season has been going on for 2 whole weeks and it is time to try to take advantage of some irritable owners and small sample sizes. A great way to do this is try to pick up some extremely low valued hitters that have a low BABIP value in exchange for players with high BABIP values. BABIP will be a major factor in determining a player batting average, RBIs and runs.

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With every lowball trade offer that comes my way for Jay Bruce, I am often reminded of the words of Winston Churchill who once said, “Continuous effort — not strength or intelligence — is the key to unlocking our potential.”  I am also reminded of the words of the recently departed Chuck Tanner — “There are three secrets to managing. The first secret is have patience. The second is be patient. And the third most important secret is patience.”  These words couldn’t ring more true. Read the rest of this entry »

I don’t have to tell this audience about the what goes up must come down principle, but we’ve had some, ahem, “performances” that haven’t been quite up to snuff at third base and I thought it was high time to give their shortcomings a little virtual ink. This isn’t a comprehensive list by any means as there have been several candidates at the hot corner who haven’t lived up to expectations (Casey McGehee, Ian Stewart, Pedro Alvarez, I’m giving you the evil eye) but between Kevin Youkilis and Chone Figgins we’ve got good poster boys for small sample size analysis.

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Let’s take a quick look at two middle relievers heading in the opposite fantasy directions…

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Now is the time that a lot of managers, myself included, are starting to feel the first twinges of panic about our rosters.  Just a sampling from my world: Kila Ka’aihue hasn’t hit since his big walkoff homer, and is starting to lose playing time to Wilson Betemit.  Sean Rodriguez is still benched every other day despite the Longoria injury.  MadBum is pitching like crap.  The list goes on…

Here’s another, turning the clock back to last Sunday night: in my 20-team H2H points league (lwts-based), Lance Berkman is my starting 1B (actually, I’m playing him at UT to save his knees.  Zing!  That’s bad fantasy humor, but I’m incredibly amused by it).  And Sunday, I was seriously thinking about benching him.  Through his first eight games, Lance Berkman hit just .214/.290/.286.  Meanwhile, Travis Hafner was sitting on my bench, and he was absolutely on fire, hitting .370/.433/.630 over the first week!   Why not just swap out for the coming week?

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In today’s waiver wire, I give you two safe middle infield options, as well as an outfielder that may make you throw up in your mouth. Just a little bit.

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Fantasy owners in search of The Next Big Thing™ should take note of a certain starting pitcher in the Brewers system who is on the verge of the big leagues and has legitimate Cy Young stuff. Unfortunately, Zack Greinke is already owned in your league. Although he’s set to make a rehab start or two while recovering from his fractured rib, Greinke isn’t exactly eligible for a spot in this edition of Mining the Minors. But here are three lesser-known minor leaguers who could make an impact at some point in the near future. In fact, one of them is Greinke’s Nashville Sounds rotation mate.

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Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 3.

Brandon Beachy – With 17 Ks in 17.1 IP, you could make a case for starting Beachy on strikeouts alone. Unfortunately, the other categories come into play. Beachy has yet to break into the win column and his ERA and WHIP took it on the chin Thursday night against the Marlins. This week Beachy has two tough road matchups against Kuroda and Lincecum and all signs point to leaving him on the bench this week.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – The good news is that Matsuzaka’s xFIP is half of what his ERA is. The bad news is he has a 6.56 xFIP. This week he gets to face the slugging Blue Jays and then a cross country road trip to take on the Angels. It may be worthwhile to hang onto him for a few more starts to see if he can put it back together, but by all means let him figure things out while he sits on your bench.

Carl Pavano – After getting rocked in his first start, Pavano has put up back-to-back strong outings, allowing just 1 ER and 8 H over 16 IP. He surrendered three gopher balls in his first game but has kept the ball in the park since then. Pavano’s peripherals are worse than his ERA, due mainly to that first outing. A 17-game winner last year, make sure he is in your lineup this week

Jason Vargas – Last year Vargas shocked everyone by winning nine games and putting up a sub-4.00 ERA. Seven of his nine wins came at home, where his ERA was a full two runs lower than his road mark. Vargas got knocked around in his first home start this year, but last time out in Safeco he allowed 1 ER in 6.2 IP. He has two home starts this week and as he’s likely on the waiver wire in your league, he makes an excellent streaming option.

Carlos Zambrano – Another pitcher with two home starts is Zambrano. But unlike Vargas, Zambrano has not shown an extreme preference for pitching in his home park. In fact, Zambrano has a much higher road winning percentage in his career (.676 vs .544). But the reason to start Zambrano this week is his opponents. He faces off against the Padres and Dodgers, two of the weaker offensive teams in the National League. While Zambrano has not pitched particularly well this year, the Cubs offense has provided him with lots of support, as he has two wins despite a 6.11 ERA.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 3 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Halladay, Johnson, Lincecum, Marcum, Price, T. Hudson, Danks, B. Anderson, Romero, E. Jackson, Liriano, Scherzer, Kuroda, E. Santana, Shields, Lilly, Lewis, T. Wood, Pavano, Lackey, Carmona, Niese, Stauffer, Correia, Jimenez, Tillman, Chen, Fister, Lannan, Arrieta, LeCure, Galarraga, Moseley, Davies, Palmer.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.