OK, FanGraphers.  As you may have surmised from my single digit post count, I’m one of the new guys here, and as a new guy, it’s my responsibility to properly introduce myself and show you what I have to offer.  To do that, I’m going to have to take you out of your comfort zone today.  And by that, I mean I want you to put down your spreadsheets, drop your calculators, and set aside your usual stacks of number-crunching data.  I love stats.  I really do.  But sometimes, I feel that the human element of baseball is being lost in a sea of statistics and sabermetric primers, and it’s time to acknowledge the need to discuss these ballplayers as the people for which they are.  And what  better way to start it off then to talk about the comeback of Giants third baseman, Pablo Sandoval? Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve done a fair amount of reading on third base rankings headed into the 2011 fantasy baseball season. While most prognosticators and enthusiasts recognize some elite talent at the tippy-top of the list, references such as “terrifying,” “black hole,” and, ahem, “talentless batch of hackers” have described the rest of the list, which I might venture to simply call not terribly deep. Third base will present many managers with a challenge, but I’m not so sure there aren’t some gems to be had in this list.

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We’ve been dissecting ottoneu one – the flagship league that spawned the FanGraphs fantasy game – and it seems we’ve been having fun doing it. Oh, and of course, someone usually ends up with a free team for the inaugural year. That might have something to do with why people find it fun.

One of the reasons that the game has resonated with so many players is the mix of valuation and keeping. Go into the auction like many have done before, go home with a value player as anybody worth their salt in auction leagues is capable of doing, and then at the end of the year, you are faced with salary inflation and arbitration. Now you have a new set of issues to ponder.

Was that player, who was a value at $x, worth $x+2 after a year of aging? Or does the risk put forward by his extra year of age eliminate that surplus value? You’re a general manager at the winter meetings pondering trade ideas. You’re examining your projections, and valuing the projected numbers. The advantage you have over your real-life GM is the fact that you, at any moment, can cut a player you don’t feel is performing up to his cost.

So we come to the keeper decisions made in ottoneu one – you can keep anyone you like, provided the price is right. Remember, the guys in this league are all FanGraphs readers like you, so let’s not get too snarky. They’ll be watching, and they’re all just trying to win their leagues like the rest of us. But, it’s still worth a discussion.

For a year of a free ottoneu/FanGraphs fantasy team, argue which hitter and which pitcher of the following actual keepers was the worst decision of this current offseason. Best argument wins.

Oh, and for context, I’ve added screenshots of the most expensive players in ottoneu one – this way you get to see how sweet the leaderboard looks, too. Pick one hitter and one pitcher in your comment:

Miguel Cabrera ($52)
Mark Teixeira ($46)
Jay Bruce ($30)
Andre Ethier ($26)

Justin Verlander ($44)
Johan Santana ($37)
Chad Billingsley ($28)
Ted Lilly ($17)

Right off the bat, I’ll tell you…bargain shopping for first basemen is a risky way of running your team.  In fact, I don’t recommend it at all.  Real success is found in the premier mashers, and I always recommend you draft at least one.  But if your league uses a corner infielder and/or a DH/utility slot, then picking up a super cheap first baseman can turn into a very economical boost in offensive production. Read the rest of this entry »

On Thursday, we rolled out our First Base rankings and while it’s commonly referred to as a deep position, the bottom isn’t necessarily never ending. There are some gentlemen on the list that you might want to dodge on draft day, unless of course the price is just too good. With that in mind, here are your preseason First Base Fallers:

Billy Butler

Butler headlines this list primarily due to unmet expectations. Butler was being drafted in the 75-79 range in 2010 as he was a rising star but after disappointing in his power and run producing output, his ADP going into 2011 appears to be in the 85-92 range (unless you’re Yahoo! and his ADP is inexplicably 66). Many managers have lost a little patience with him despite his contributions in the batting average category. He’s certainly not a dud, as the kid only turns 25 in April and he’s actually got a solid resume to date plus the history of a pretty fantastic hitter in the minor leagues.

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We debuted our first base rankings yesterday and have been breaking down the position a bit more thoroughly since. Today we’ll take a look at three first sackers on their way up the rankings, but unfortunately it’s impossible to have Albert Pujols any higher. Contract year Pujols is an exciting proposition. Here’s three guys climbing the rankings…

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I haven’t always felt this way, but auctions are pretty sweet. How often does someone have to grab that sleeper from you just because of the vagaries of the snake draft before you start thinking about auctions anyway? How great is it to decide a player is worth something, plus or minus, and then go toe to toe with someone that has a similar evaluation of that player? It’s an exciting process, and it really makes you put your player valuation money where your mouth is.

Adding keeper functionality to an auction league just makes even more sense. As I migrated from snake to auction in my fantasy preferences, I’ve also migrated to keeper leagues. Aren’t we trying to play at being GMs here? In a way, we must be approximating the thrill of running a team, and a keeper auction league is probably the closest you can get without hitting the sim leagues – which are cool, but I’d rather leave defense out. It’s just so tough to evaluate.

In any case, as the title indicates, my personal fantasy baseball trends have led me to ottoneu, the new fantasy game at FanGraphs. I hope you enjoy the game as much as I will. Let’s play another “Trade Tree” game, shall we? This seemed popular the first time around. It’s pretty sweet that all of these trades would show up on the respective player pages in your league, and it does a good job of illustrating how ottoneu game play goes.

For a free year (one team) of ottoneu fantasy, argue who got the most value for their Dan Haren in ottoneu one, the flagship league of the game.

Team 1: Traded $19 Haren during the 2009 season for $7 Joba Chamberlain, $5 Dexter Fowler and $5 Justin Smoak

Team 2: Traded $21 Haren before the 2010 season with $19 Adam Jones for $5 Shin-Soo Choo

Team 3: Traded $23 Haren before the 2011 season for $12 Clay Buchholz, $6 Martin Prado and $4 Jason Kipnis

*Before you knock any team too harshly, remember to appreciate the context in which these trades took place. I know you don’t have team data, but look at the year at least. Also, this is for 4×4 ottoneu (OBP, SLG, HR, R / ERA, WHIP, K, HR/9)

I love a lot of things about fantasy baseball.  But like many of you, when understanding players in real life, I have become increasingly immersed in the sorts of statistics that are commonplace here at FanGraphs: wOBA, FIP, WAR, etc.  And that created a problem for me as a fantasy manager: I just don’t enjoy leagues that reward managers for things like RBI, pitcher wins, etc.

Last year, I decided to do something about it.  Inspired by this post by Tangotiger, I created a custom Yahoo league that used a scoring system designed to more accurately reflect “real” baseball–or, at least, real player value.  It was a blast.  And on the basis of this success, FanGraphs adopted this scoring system as one of the ways that you can play the ottoneu fantasy game.

What makes it different from other points systems?  It is based upon those same, advanced statistics that we use to evaluate players in real life: linear weights for hitters and FIP for pitchers.

Let’s start with the point values for hitters:

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There are a few new faces in new places among first basemen this season. The two most prominent are Adrian Gonzalez in Boston and Adam Dunn in Chicago, and they’ll probably do just fine in their new digs. But what about Carlos Pena, Adam LaRoche and Lance Berkman? Let’s take a look.

Carlos Pena
Did you know that Pena will be 33 this season? The seemingly perpetually deemed young Pena is actually hovering close to old man territory these days, which should help him fit right in with the veteran-laden north siders. At this point, Pena would be easy to write off, as his 5×5 stats have been mostly in decline for three straight seasons (except, oddly enough, for his stolen base totals). Still, not everything about Pena was a disaster last season.

His .211 ISO was better than Prince Fielder’s, and ranked 11th among qualified first basemen overall. Likewise, he was 10th among first basemen in home runs. Projections have him in that 28-31 range once again, but with a bounce back in ISO, wOBA and SLG that would bring him closer to his 2008 levels. Part of that is likely due to the bump he should see in switching from Tropicana Field to Wrigley. Stat Corner has Wrigley’s park factor for LHB HR at 119, a full 30 percent higher than Tropicana’s 89. The question with Pena is by how much will his BABIP rebound, and David G did a great job of examining this back in December. Assuming his BABIP does rebound to the .250’s, Pena could be a mid-round steal.

Right now, his ADP on Mock Draft Central is 217, and his aggregate RotoGraphs rank is 19th. Compare that to someone like Paul Konerko, who is likely due for a regression this season. If so, would you rather invest early in Konerko – his MDC ADP right now is a much pricier 71 – or wait a half-dozen more rounds and pick up Pena on the cheap?

Adam LaRoche
LaRoche has alligator blood. The Nationals will be his fifth team, and it’s safe to say that his lot with the Nationals will not be greatly improved from his lot with the Diamondbacks. LaRoche is what he is at this point, a guy who is going to give you 20-25 homers and a .260ish average. His aggregate RotoGraphs preseason rank is 22, with no one placing him higher than 16th. But while there is little upside in LaRoche, there is a certain level of comfort as well. Akin to a TastyKake, LaRoche is never going to be a snack you go out of your way to get, but they’re both satisfying.

When you get down to the lower rungs of first base options, many of them are of the youngish variety. In fact, the two players surrounding LaRoche in the RG preseason ranks are Mitch Moreland and Freddie Freeman – two inexperienced players whose performances, while they hold more upside, are also likely prone to greater fluctuation. If you wait out first base, you may want to grab LaRoche as well as your phenom dujour, so that when said phenom puts up an 0-fer on his first four-city road trip, you don’t have to wallow in misery with him.

Lance Berkman
Say this about Berkman – he’s entertaining. Whether he’s taking unprovoked shots at the Rangers, or trying to Benjamin Button himself back to the outfield – and claiming that it will actually be easier in the process – Berkman is definitely going to keep beat reporters on their toes.

Whether or not he can keep opposing pitchers on their toes is another story. It would be folly to discount him altogether – after all, he is 37th all-time in OBP. Taking a look at his comparable players by age over on B-Ref, we see that four of them are Jim Edmonds, Jason Giambi, David Ortiz and Larry Walker. While Edmonds’ drop came a bit later than the other three, all of four had large single-season drops in wOBA in their thirties, only to rebound the following season.

It wouldn’t be wise to bet on Berkman turning the trick as well, but it could be smart to grab him late and stash him on your bench. His aggregate RotoGraphs ranking of 25 and his current MDC ADP of 391 show that he’ll be available late. And since the “Big Puma” has always been better in the first half (.980 career first-half OPS versus .923 in the second half), you may not have to wait long to find out if he will rebound. If he does, and with all of the RBI opportunities he’ll have behind Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday, he could very well be this year’s Vladimir Guerrero that you flip in late June and snicker to yourself as he wilts in the summer heat. Buy low, sell high and all of that.