Evolution of Fantasy; Win A Team!
I haven’t always felt this way, but auctions are pretty sweet. How often does someone have to grab that sleeper from you just because of the vagaries of the snake draft before you start thinking about auctions anyway? How great is it to decide a player is worth something, plus or minus, and then go toe to toe with someone that has a similar evaluation of that player? It’s an exciting process, and it really makes you put your player valuation money where your mouth is.
Adding keeper functionality to an auction league just makes even more sense. As I migrated from snake to auction in my fantasy preferences, I’ve also migrated to keeper leagues. Aren’t we trying to play at being GMs here? In a way, we must be approximating the thrill of running a team, and a keeper auction league is probably the closest you can get without hitting the sim leagues – which are cool, but I’d rather leave defense out. It’s just so tough to evaluate.
In any case, as the title indicates, my personal fantasy baseball trends have led me to ottoneu, the new fantasy game at FanGraphs. I hope you enjoy the game as much as I will. Let’s play another “Trade Tree” game, shall we? This seemed popular the first time around. It’s pretty sweet that all of these trades would show up on the respective player pages in your league, and it does a good job of illustrating how ottoneu game play goes.
For a free year (one team) of ottoneu fantasy, argue who got the most value for their Dan Haren in ottoneu one, the flagship league of the game.
Team 1: Traded $19 Haren during the 2009 season for $7 Joba Chamberlain, $5 Dexter Fowler and $5 Justin Smoak
Team 2: Traded $21 Haren before the 2010 season with $19 Adam Jones for $5 Shin-Soo Choo
Team 3: Traded $23 Haren before the 2011 season for $12 Clay Buchholz, $6 Martin Prado and $4 Jason Kipnis
*Before you knock any team too harshly, remember to appreciate the context in which these trades took place. I know you don’t have team data, but look at the year at least. Also, this is for 4×4 ottoneu (OBP, SLG, HR, R / ERA, WHIP, K, HR/9)
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Team 2 got the best caluew. Adam Jones at $19 has little value but can be waived or shopped depending on team need.
Shin-Soo Choo on the other hand at $5 becomes a building block for the team. He is an elite and durable (over 140 gp last 2 years) outfielder in this format with great obp numbers, and will also contribute in the 3 other fantasy categories.
This must have been a salary dump by the team trading Haren, since the hr/9 category makes him less valuable in this format.
For the sake of argument, let’s go with team 3. Assuming this a keeper league, team 3 got an excellent young pitcher for $11 less than Haren is priced at, plus a decent option at 2B. Over the next 2-3 years, who do you think will be more valuable, Buchholz or Haren? I’ll take Haren next year (by a smidge), and Buchholz every year thereafter. Buchholz’s minor league numbers suggest his K rate could grow significantly, and Haren’s flyball tendencies don’t play as well in this league.
I just want to throw in my $.02
Team 2 got huge value here. Not only did they deal Joba, Fowler, and Smoak for Haren in the first place – a group of then-prospects who are now all dubious values at those costs – team 2 then flipped Haren for Choo who is generally considered a better player than Haren (if I recall, this was true prior to last season too). Netting Adam Jones is bonus.
It’s less clear when reading the sentence correctly, dur….
Trade 2 > Trade 3 > Trade 1
Trade 2 looks like so far it has gotten the most value. out of all the hitters Choo at $5 has produced the best for the any category system you use, with .400 OBP .484 SLG and 80+ runs and 20 home runs last year. adam jones may be a bit over valued he’s not terrible. Plus dan haren had his best year out of the the two he played in 2009, so not only did they get a good part of 2009 but unloaded joba, fowler and smoak(who haven’t produced at the MLB level really) for choo and jones.
Team 1 got depth that hasn’t realized it’s talent yet in fowler and smoak and if both get playing time having both at sub 10 could be good but it’s not star level production.(joba is what he is)
For Team 3 if clay buchholz can increase his strikeout rate this year he’d be more valueable, but he’s probably due for some regression from last year, with an increase in the hr/9 and era, but prado at $6 isn’t bad since he has multiple position eligibility and kipnis might be up sometime in 2011 and be a solid cheap player at 2nd.
Team 2 wins and this is why.
Fantasy leagues comes down to perceived value and the age and upside of Jones and Choo is better then most of the other players in this group. The team 1 trade is bad for the Haren owner. We have no idea what Joba or Smoak is and we know what Fowler is. Im sure the owner of these three sold there “upside” but I would rather have Haren and 2 one dollar players.
Team three comes in a very close second to team two as the best offer. Buchholz has the ability to be better then Haren. If Buchholz pitched in the AL west i may take this offer as the best. I mean come on Toronto may not be the “Bronx Bombers” but let’s call them the “Canadian Crushers.” One year does make a trend right? Prado is a decent VORP but he value is not much more then 6 bucks. Kipnis has some perceived value at 4 bucks and if you think you can flip him for a win now player then maybe this deal makes sense.
Team 2 is the best for the Haren owner because it gives you 2 win now players. Jones has the ability to be a top 10 outfielder right now and Choo is a top 10. This deal also gives the Jones Choo owner some flexibility. If this season does not go good for him he can flip these two at the deadline for the team 3 offer. Flexibility is the key here. The Buchholz offer will be there in three months.
Team 3 did very well here. Below is a very simplified view of the three team’s deals as I see them, from the vantage point of present day. It is likely highly dependent on the overall team’s make-up and I think Team 2 and Team 3 are very close in this debate – my preference is for Team 3.
————————————————————–
Team 1 has not received much value from the trade in 2009, yet. Of the three trades, this one has the potential to still be the most valuable, but as of today, this one has returned the least dividends.
Team 2 traded BOTH Haren and Jones for Choo. This deal has me conflicted. While Choo is solid and you can count on something near a .300 average with around 20 HR and 20 SB each year, he has the least amount of upside of the three players in the deal. Adam Jones is several years younger and has the tools to be better than Choo – hasn’t translated yet however. Haren had a down year in 2010 but essentially you know what you are getting from him. When considering the dollar values however this does swing in the favor of the person who got Choo as he should be reasonably priced and consistently productive for the next few years.
Team 3 made an excellent deal here. Although Buchholz does not have the K/9 rate of Haren, he should be solid in a number of categories and quite comparable to Haren over the next few years. Prado having multi-position eligibility for a year a two will be useful and not expensive for a good BA and Runs at the top of a huge ATL offense. Kipnis is a nice player to take a gamble on – if he proves durable at 2nd base, he could provide enough power to make him a top 10 player at that position since some of the regulars (Kinsler, Phillips, etc.) are getting older and perpetually are injured. In terms of present day value, this deal takes the cake.
A nit, based on what all the other responses seem to assume: Team 2 didn’t *get* Adam Jones, they gave up Haren and Jones for Choo and $35.
This doesn’t weaken the argument that Team 2 got a great deal. In giving up Jones for Choo, Team 2 is probably getting the better outfielder (at least according to my 2010 rankings), and saving $14 to boot. Including a consensus top-5 pitcher was the price of doing business. However, this really only becomes a great trade with the benefit of hindsight; if Haren gives some version of his 2009 or 2008 seasons (ERA and WHIP-wise), or Jones takes a step forward (he and Choo both basically repeated their ’09 seasons), this deal looks pretty even.
I love that trade 2 frees up both a lot of money and a roster spot, but given that 2009 Smoak and Jason Kipnis are bouncing around, this league is obviously deeper than I’m used to, which makes me wonder if that’s as great as it looks. I lean towards trade 3 as the best. I’m not a huge Buchholz fan, but I think he’ll get within $11 of Haren on value, I love Prado for $6, and Kipnis is a nice chip to have. If the first trade had been done before the ’09 season, I’d give that one the medal easily, but Joba doesn’t look nearly as shiny during the season.
I’m going to elaborate a bit on these, through the window of context:
Trade 1 looks very much like a team falling out of contention, trying to trade a player at his peak value for prospects. Certainly, Joba wouldn’t have had as much perceived value in the middle of the season as he did at the beginning, but half a season of not-great production wouldn’t erase his upside. His 2010 didn’t work out, either, but the team wasn’t forced to keep him, and he still might work out; given the presence of Smoak in the trade, I’d say the trading team was looking as much to 2011 as to 2010. This certainly has been better for one team so far, but I’d say both teams got what they wanted.
Trade 2 has been analyzed plenty. To expand on my previous comment, though, with 40-man rosters and no keeper limit, we can’t just assume the extra $35 and a roster spot goes to grabbing Cliff Lee. More likely, the extra roster spot gets filled by a prospect, and the extra money gets spread over 5-7 players the team would otherwise not have been able to get at auction. That’s valuable–possibly very valuable–but pre-season 2010, this isn’t necessarily the slam-dunk it would be if the league had 25-man rosters.
I don’t have much to add to what I’ve already said about Trade 3. It looks like one team is counting on a bounce-back year from Haren, and giving up $1 to get him and free up two roster spots. But in terms of projected value, I just see Buchholz + Prado as outproducing Haren + whatever that dollar gets to replace Prado. Kipnis might pay off down the road, or he might not, but for now, the team has Prado to play 2b.
Just to help people out, here are the point totals for the players, as according to the otto scoring system: (not trying to point somebody to a certain location, but most of these comments are not using data from the actual otto system… which might change a lot of your opinions.)
2009
Haren – 1114
Chamberlain – 514
Fowler – 617
Smoak – 0
2010
Haren – 1027
Jones – 724
Choo – 986
2011 (Bill James Projected)
Haren – 1070
Buchholz – 843
Prado – 787
Kipnis – 0
Keep in mind the amount of roster spots the trades are taking up. For instance, for the 2009 year, you would want Haren (if you were in it to win it) because you are getting equal point value to that of Chamberlain and Folwer combined, with one roster spot now open to add on top of that.
Disregard, I just realized they are not using linear weights for the question.
Apologies all around.
It would be interesting to see at what point during the 2009 season that Team 1 made that deal. Haren’s value was pretty high in 2009 and unless it was very early in the year (and Team 1 was gambling), it seems like they could have done better. I would not have been a fan of this deal at the time and especially in hindsight I think this deal gets the least value for Haren when HIS value was the highest.
Team 2’s deal really stands out to me from a business sense. Choo has always been better than Jones and at a $14 savings that is a clear win. If you then go out and spend the difference in cash in the draft, you can pay for a better pitcher than Haren and still SAVE money. This is the type of deal that a real GM will always look to make.
Team 3 gets the most immediate value for Haren. While I believe Buchholz is due for a big regression this year (and Haren is due to rebound to 2008/2009 levels) you get a kind of comparable pitcher, a position player in Prado who is very suited for this type of 4 x 4 league and a decent prospect. But i just think Haren has more value in the coming year than Buchholtz and Prado.
I dont have a problem with the value that Team 3 got for Haren, but I just think that CASH is a very valuable commodity in fantasy and Team 2 can improve their team better and faster with the deal they made.
Team 2 wins to me!
Team 3. Haren’s HR/9 will likely decrease and his applicable periphs should be very solid, but a cheaper Clay provides a higher ceiling this season, and moving forward. A solid 2b prospect at a frankly steep price is risky, but he may provide slugging at a thin position very soon. The jewel of the trade is Prado. He is entering his five year prime window, and is coming off of his best season. His multi-position eligibility also gives the manager the ability to play him in multiple slots if a prospect begins producing at 2b.
This may be because I think Haren is overvalued. He gets a lot of love from fantasy circles because of his k/bb, whip, and k/9 rates. But I think his desire to never walk anyone makes him more likely to serve up meatballs while behind in the count. His steadily decreasing avg fb velocity makes it tougher for him to sneak mistakes by hitters. As he continues dropping down the wrong side of 30, Haren will less valuable every season from now. He may not be worth 23 this year.
“How great is it to decide a player is worth something, plus or minus, and then go toe to toe with someone that has a similar evaluation of that player?”
Even better is using a closed auction approach. Many years ago, I was in a league with a closed auction whereby a player’s name were called, each team had 30 seconds to secretly write their bid on piece of paper after which all bids were revealed and the player went to the highest bidder. If there was a tie for high bid, the teams that tied began an open auction for the player.
The team dealing away Haren and Jones in trade two is definitely getting the most value in exchange. as they are dealing a player who produces at an ~$8-$10 value but costs $19 and receiving a player that produces at an ~$18-$22 value but costs only $5. This manager is gaining ~$10-$14 in his OF which should offset the loss of ~$20 of value for dealing Haren. But since Haren is a pitcher that loss of can be easily made up on the waiver wire by picking up a pitcher such as Hong-Chih Kuo or Mike Adams.
I was going to try to defend team 1’s trade since everyone seems to be bashing it after having over a year of hindsight but if team 2’s trade really involves dumping a $19 Adam Jones then thats your winner. As an O’s fan it’s been comical watching Jones struggle to lay off pitches he has no chance to drive. He’s always going to be a liability in OBP and 1/4 of his value in this league is tied to that which really hurts. The upside is there in the other 3 categories but at $19 compared to a $5 Choo he’d need to reach his potential and then some to justify his price tag.
Saying trade 1 is the worst trade is very easy to say. Saying trade 2 is the best trade seems very easy to say as well. Of course, trade 3 is gets the most value!
Before I break down trade 3, it already has a leg up on the other two… here’s why:
Trade 1:
During the 2009 season and before hindsight was 20/20 trading away Dan Haren for promising young talents: Joba, Fowler, and Smoak seemed like a HOMERUN! Ricky Williams-esque, but then Joba practically rolled over and Fowler and Smoak were just Smoke and Fowlers. 🙂
Trade 2:
Now, with an “eh” season from Adam Jones, who is more expensive than his worth and a very promising Shin-Soo Choo SEEMS to sound like an amazing trade. Here’s the problem, we’re already calling Choo, Mr. Consistent after two full seasons. Don’t forget the deep, deep pool of talent in the OF position. Also, do not forget we called trade 1 PROMISING. I just don’t feel comfortable with a $19 Adam Jones who is practically unmovable. Would you want to spend 5% of your payroll on an OUTFIELDER, who is producing numbers that are nothing special?
Now for trade 3…
The loss of Dan Haren is immediately replaced with Clay Buchholz, who is better in 3 of the 4 pitching categories. Compared to Haren, Buchholz owns ERA, WHIP, and HR/9. With the 3rd trade you lose Ks in exchange for a 2B/3B/OF with a career OPS of .810. NICE! Also a top 100 prospect at the 2B position. I really want to be emphatic about how undervalued prospects are in this league because unlike Adam Jones-like players prospects can be the make or break of trades. Fantasy owners love a chance at a breakout that have basically no present value except for trades. Prospects at $1-$4 are so valuable.
Trade 3 is the winner.
I would take team 3’s deal, just a hair over team 2’s. Team 2 snags a great piece in Choo, a great all around fantasy guy who has many good years left and takes some big money off the books. I’d definitely have no complaints getting that deal. That said, the combination that team 3 stole has to get the nod. Prado is a very underappreciated and useful player, sporting that sexy double eligibility and solid all around hitting stats, and for the right price. Buchholz isn’t as sexy a fantasy option as a real life one, but I have confidence that he can bump his K rate a bit closer to where it was in the minors, perhaps around 7-8 K/9. Finally, though the acquisition of Orlando Cabrera puts a damper on his potential for this season, Kipnis has a very bright fantasy future. He’ll be a part of the next wave of great hitting 2Bs, and though he may not make much impact until 2012, I think for the price he’s worth the wait. Great all around package for team 3, if you ask me.
I believe trade 2 was the most successful trade.
Using projected value this looks like an absolute steal
Dan Haren Projected Value = $11
Adam Jones Projected Value = $7
Shin-Soo Choo Projected Value $31 (average cost 33.9 in 2011)
Essentially the team is trading $40 (Jones, Haren) for $5 (Choo)
Which is trading only $18 in value for $31in value
The trade is a win in many ways, the team frees up $35 and a roster spot as well as increasing projected value by $13
Theoretically the team could then use the extra $35 and roster spot to purchase another starting pitcher such as Lincecum. This would make the trade Haren/Jones for Lincecum/Choo for the same salary.
Overall I like the second trade as it gives more roster flexibility as well as the best player out of the three trades, for the cheapest price of the three trades.
Finally Choo still has at least 5-6 years in his prime left and contributes to every stat.
From: Broke College kid 🙂
Looking back when trade 1 was made, Joba, Fowler, and Smoak were all top prospects. Haren’s value was much higher than today, but that was a huge deal to get 3 top prospects for 1 ace pitcher whose price was rising. If we are being asked to look at this trade in the context of the time it was made. This trade is my choice as the winner. Joba was supposed to start and would have been projected to have some pretty comparable numbers to Haren with all his hype. Smoak was what… another Teixeira type of player. Fowler has always been a speed guy but was still hyped as a potential power threat and if nothing else would have helped in OBP and runs. When are you even offered 3 top prospects for 1 pitcher without a cy young to his credit and never had a sub 3 ERA?
Trade 2 is great value in getting Choo. However, going into the season, he was no sure bet as a 20HR guy and on a poor team wouldn’t score runs and Adam Jones was seemingly primed for a breakout year. Haren looked like he was still a player on the rise and an ace of any staff! At the time, the value for Choo was good, but giving up 2 solid players was a risk and especially in a keeper league when Choo should be going off to the Korean military right now if not for an improbable tournament victory that lead to the players being dismissed of military service time. At the time, Choo was thought to possibly be unavailable to play starting this season I believe.
Trade 3 is also very good value, but Clay had a far better season than expected and should regress in some categories. Prado is a good value and with multiple position eligibility will be a significant contributor to a fantasy team. Kipnis is someone to stash, but depending on how deep the league is, really won’t help this year, and is not considered a top prospect. Sure he has value, but he may not be worth more than his price tag until at least 400 AB’s into his career. This trade is really banking on Bucholtz to be an ace, but he’s not likely to give a repeat performance from last year.
If I am going to trade a top pitcher, I want to make sure I have the most chance to see a reward. Trade 1 is the best trade that was made looking at the timeline of when the trades were made… by far… for a keeper league. This doesn’t sound like a 10 team mixed league here, this is big boy fantasy baseball. Cheap prospects win championships and give you money to spend on the veterans later. At the time of the trades, trade 1 got a HAUL! Neither other trade was close!
Hey Eno, I think this guy is on to something 🙂
Great point about Choo. Completely forgot about the military service aspect in a keeper league.
yea but he was most likely going to defect instead serving the military time
It’s not letting me reply to the first reply on this comment, but…
I heard Choo was actually pretty intent on serving his country if required to do so. That could have been him him just saying the right things, but I never heard anything about defecting being an option.
But you won the team, congrats!
I know one of the big rules in the world of fantasy baseball is this: no one cares about your league other than you and your friends. However, if people like these trade scenarios, we can keep doing them. These are all real trades that have happened in the years of ottoneu before this season, and I think they all do a great job of capturing the truly unique and fun trade market that this game creates.
Please let Eno and myself know if you find these things fun – from the great feedback, it looks as if some of you definitely do!
Team 2 is the clear winner in my eyes. Team 2 loses a $21 #1 starter, and a $19 1st or 2nd outfielder, and replaces it with a $5 1st or 2nd OF and$35.
We can safely asume that a reinvestment of $21 will net a Haren comparable #1 SP in the draft, leaving a surplus value of $14.
We should also assume that by playing an Ottoneu style fantasy league that this owner will have a large budget for an elite bat in the draft. Let ‘s assume $30 for the top bat on their team. By utlizing the surplus from this trade that $30 could become $44 without reducing the quality at the other 2 positions. This is the potential difference between a Texiera 1B type….or Albert Pujol.
Regardless of how the $14 surplus is reinvested, surplus value wins Fantasy leagues.
Gonna announce a winner between 430 and 5pm EST… gotta snarf some lunch.
Wanted to give it to Joel, because his discussion of surplus value was right on. However, I don’t think $21 gets you another SP1 in this setup. Even though I don’t agree with Matt’s results specifically, I have to admit that I am colored by the results of those prospects in trade 1 since 2009. Tdotstandup also talked about the trade in the right way, imo, but didn’t mention any of the risk inherent with Choo and didn’t necessarily think of the trade in the year it happened.
In the end, I’ll let the fact that I think trade 2 was the best one color my decision: Tdotstandup, come on down!!!! email me at my name at hotmail once you sign up and we’ll get you reimbursed.
Oh, and the rest of you: tell me if you like this and I’ll do it again, as Niv says.
I think it is a great idea, and a lot of fun.
I have a habit of lowering the value of pitchers in keeper leagues based on the injury risk tied to them. The strategy has paid off….and bit me firmly on the arse. Tdotstandup….Congrats, and good post!
Team 1 got the most value. Think about it….
In 2009, Team 1 got three top tier prospects back for one really really good player. The prospects may not be able to contribute at this exact moment and may even wind up being busts in the long-term, but they have high level value regardless. These are prospects that get a whole lot of buzz without having to risk any of that value on the field because we don’t expect them to reach peak value for some time.
If you played fantasy, you knew who these three were and what they could become. If you have played fantasy, you should also know of the propensity for owners to overpay for upside which further increases the prospects value in the eyes of some owners. Joba, Fowler and Smoak could have been shipped off in other deals over time with little need to rush to a deal with the motivation to capitalize on the ebbs and flows of a player’s “stock” during the season.
Separate deals involving the three prospects could have been made later in order to fill other or multiple needs that could provide more value than the player that was traded in order to obtain the prospects to begin with.
Max – You are actually right on here.
What wasn’t disclosed as part of the story is the subsequent series of trades that were made that completely validate your point. In trade 1, Smoak was essentially turned into Cliff Lee ($31) and Fowler turned into Dan Uggla ($33) for Team 1, who essentially traded the $19 Haren for $33 Uggla and $31 Lee. Adam Jones got cut this last offseason, as did Joba. Depending on how you view the cap space situation, Team 1 probably did the best given all of the subsequent events, though Team 2 (my team) did gain a lot of flexibility with a cheap, top value (although he got voted for arbitration this offseason and will probably cost me $30-$40 to resign!!).
Frankly, as the three of us discuss these three trades now, we’re actually all happy about the results in hindsight.
jpjazz
You bring up a realy good point that I forgot to consider; never having played this style league….arbitration. Choo at $5 would never become realized savings as it is an obvious arbitration case. Rather then a $14 surplus, you would only realize a $5 surplus (assuming he was bid up only to value).
I hope this type of discussions continue. This Otto style league is very interesting, especially when considering trade values.
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