Second base is a deep enough position these days that even if some teams double up, everyone in a 12-team league should end up with a decent-to-good second sacker. Having said that, the cream of the crop here creates just as much separation from the rest of the pack as it does at other positions.

Keystone King: Robinson Cano

Robinson Cano takes the mantle for the first time in his career after an other-worldly 2010 season, which is a season he could very well duplicate in 2011. The good – Cano has only missed eight games the past four seasons, which is interesting in that that’s the same number of games Nick Johnson misses every time he sneezes. Also good is the fact that Cano has lowered his GB% in each of the past four seasons, with his GB% of 44.2 last season equaling his career low. The bad – his ISO was so high last season, his .214 mark was second to only Dan Uggla, it may have nowhere to go but down. Certainly his Marcel forecast thinks so – it only forecasts him for a .176 ISO, which would actually be lower than his 2009 mark as well. Cano was also a teensy bit BABIP-lucky last year, as he had a .326 BABIP compared to a .313 xBABIP. Still, Cano’s health, and the chance that he could duplicate his four category dominance from 2010 place him at the top of the heap.

Don’t Call It A Comeback: Chase Utley

After holding the brass ring from 2005-2008, Utley was – in terms of WAR – dethroned by Ben Zobrist in 2009 and again last year by Cano (and Rickie Weeks and Kelly Johnson). But whereas the Zobrist dethroning had the tinge of Buster Douglas beating Mike Tyson, the Cano-Utley duel could resemble the classic Ali-Frazier battles – if that is, Utley can stay healthy. At 120-125 games, Utley is a solid second round pick, as even in his limited time last season he still ranked top 10 among second basemen in R, HR and RBI. At the 155+ games that he played in three of the four seasons prior to 2010, he’s a no doubt first-rounder. Whether or not you believe in his ability to stay healthy and productive will largely be a function of your risk tolerance, but certainly if he slides to the second round, you’ll want to snap him up.

Laser Show Returneth: Dustin Pedroia

When he went down with his foot injury last season, Dustin Pedroia was on his way to being more deserving than ever of his moniker “Laser Show.” Had he kept up his 22.2% line drive rate for the rest of the season, it would have paced all second basemen and have been eighth best in the Majors overall. One thing to watch with Pedroia is that last season he seemed content to trade strike outs for home runs – his ISO and K% both jumped to previously unforeseen levels – albeit in a small sample. Even if that doesn’t continue, expect Pedroia to once again be a five category monster. And if it does continue, perhaps lil’ Dustin will put together his first 20-20 season.

Mr. “I Can’t Even Beat Pedroia In Gratuitous Fantasy Rankings”: Ian Kinsler

Consider the man who has constantly been in Pedroia’s shadow to be the start of a very healthy second tier. If Utley doesn’t test your risk tolerance, Kinsler certainly will. As we saw in 2009, a full season of Kinsler can be all sorts of spectacular. Unfortunately, 2009 was the only season of his five in the big leagues in which he topped 600 plate appearances. As a result, Kinsler is starting to slip on draft boards. We’re a glass half-full lot, so we still have him ranked fourth overall. But ESPN and Yahoo! both have him as the fifth second baseman coming off their draft boards (49th overall on ESPN, 37th on Yahoo!), and Mock Draft Central has him as the seventh second sacker off the board, at an average 54th pick. That’s a wide enough ADP variance that it’s something of which you should be mindful. One item of note – last season Kinsler hit about the same percentage of ground balls as he did fly balls, something that hadn’t happen before and partially explains his drop in home runs. Neither his Bill James nor Marcel projection see that as a continuing trend, as they have his ISO rebounding from his career-low .125 back into the .170’s, but it is also worth keeping an eye on.

Table Test-er No More? Dan Uggla

Bill Simmons’ creation of the “Table Test,” for the guy who brings a lot to the table but also takes a lot off the table (as typified by point guards like Rajon Rondo) would seemingly apply very well to Dan Uggla. Uggla brings power and big shiny runs scored and RBI totals, but at the same time doesn’t steal bases, is awful defensively and doesn’t hit for average. Or make that, didn’t hit for average. Last season’s breakthrough of a .287 batting average has taken Uggla to another level. Was it for real? Well, Uggla’s 2010 BABIP of .330 was nearly identical to his xBABIP of .327, so he certainly wasn’t lucky in that sense. But Uggla does have an on-again, off-again trend with his BABIP numbers in general. In the on-years, his BABIP is over .300, and his AVG is .260 or better. In the off-years, his BABIP is in the .270’s, and his AVG the .240’s. Whether or not this is the on-year or the off-year average-wise, one thing that will certainly continue is the power. In baseball’s integration era (1947-present), there have only been 24 seasons where a second baseman hit 30 or more homers, and of them, Uggla has the most with four seasons – the last four seasons. The average may come and the average may go, but Uggla will reliably provide that thump.

Earlier today our second base rankings were released with a bunch of familiar names in the top five or six spots, but let’s look at some guys who are poised to the climb the rankings this season…

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For 2011, second base actually seems like a position of depth compared to some other positions such as short stop and third base. The main problem I see with second basemen is that several of the players are qualified at 2 or more positions. Fantasy league managers may look to raid the depth at this position to fill other holes on their roster.

The following is a composite list from all the authors here at RotoGraphs. Here are the second basemen in the order we ranked them and divided into tiers.

Tier 1
Robinson Cano
Chase Utley
Dustin Pedroia

These 3 are for sure the cream of the crop, but each comes with a possible issue. Cano was a stud in 2010, but his low walk rate is a concern because pitchers may expand their strike zones on Cano giving him less good pitches to hit. Utley’s and Pedroia’s wart is their health after spending time on the DL last year.

Tier 2
Ian Kinsler
Dan Uggla
Brandon Phillips
Rickie Weeks
Martin Prado

Of this list Kinsler and Phillips are the most rounded with positive contributions in all 5 categories. Uggla should be great in the counting stats (HR, RBI, R), but his batting average will be a drag. If you draft him, you will want to make sure that you don’t have too many other players with low batting averages (Dunn or Reynolds) to drag down the category. Weeks finally had a healthy in 2011 and he finally showed what he could do. He will probably get drafted too early for my tastes. Prado has decent value, especially for a manger looking for a nice boost in BA.

Tier 3
Ben Zobrist
Kelly Johnson
Brian Roberts
Aaron Hill
Ryan Raburn

This group should all be drafted in any league. The real sleeper for me in this group is Ryan Raburn. He is not available in all formats, but he could be a steal come draft day for owners not looking to fill their 2B needs with him.

Tier 4
Gordon Beckham
Howie Kendrick
Chone Figgins
Neil Walker
Mike Aviles

Each of these players have several bad aspects, but if one or more could put together a good season they could be a top 10 2B at the end of the season. The one person not to forget about is Figgins and his SB. At the end of the draft with your entire team full, Figgins may be a great pickup, even if you don’t need SB. Someone else will later in the season and trade him for voids on your team.

The Rest
Omar Infante
Juan Uribe
Ryan Theriot
Danny Espinosa
Orlando Hudson
Placido Polanco
Sean Rodriguez
Bill Hall
Freddy Sanchez
Reid Brignac
Eric Young Jr.
Clint Barmes
Tsuyoshi Nishioka
Mark Ellis
Carlos Guillen
Alberto Callaspo
Ty Wigginton
Will Rhymes
Alexei Casilla
Dustin Ackley
Chris Getz
Blake DeWitt
Skip Schumaker

This group is pretty ugly, but there are some names I would definitely take a chance with in deeper leagues like Nishioka, Barmes, Young and Infante. The one stat I look for with backup or fill in 2nd basemen (or any player up the middle, CF, SS, 2B and C) is batting average. If the player’s average is higher than your team’s, pick them up for plug and play when other hitters have a day off. Some examples are Polanco, Callaspo, Sanchez and Infante. They will help your team raise its average, while possibly adding to the counting stats. If they have another trait like speed or power, all the better.

Well, there are the 2011 rankings for 2nd basemen here are Rotographs. Let me know if you have any questions on any of the particulars.

In life, they say that with age comes wisdom.  Well, in fantasy baseball, they say that with age comes a decline in numbers and that it’s time to start looking elsewhere for a younger option with much more upside.   While there’s some decent young talent out there at third, there are also plenty of seniors that are still hanging on that you may want to avoid.  Just to mention a few… Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, we rolled out our third basemen rankings for the upcoming season, and although the list gets awfully dicey after the first couple of tiers, there are some names whose stock is up headed into the draft.

Since Howard nicely summarized Pablo Sandoval’s horrific 2010 on and off the field, I’ll leave him off the list, although I’d say he is certainly on several bounce-back radars.

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When you look around the league at the various 40-man rosters, it’s hard not to be impressed by the position player depth the Rockies have accumulated, especially on the infield. Troy Tulowitzki is obviously locked in at short, and Todd Helton will be given every opportunity to show that he can still be a full-time first baseman The other two positions are a little more up in the air. Second base is another conversation for another time, so let’s discuss the hot corner.

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Remember the days when third base used to be one of the deepest positions and loaded with talent?  Well, not anymore and not for the last few seasons either.  It’s at the point where you need to start seriously considering a significant investment in one of the top 5 guys out there or be doomed to sit with mediocrity at a position once known for it’s outstanding power production. Read the rest of this entry »

Your draft room.

The auction draft is the busiest single event in the ottoneu year.  Our first auction draft has started, and I know a few more are scheduled to start over the next week, including the draft for the original ottoneu league.  I thought it would be helpful, now that the very beginnings of draft season are upon us, to step through what the actual process is of conducting an auction draft using ottoneu’s custom software.

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Over the past six or so seasons few players have been as misunderstood as Adrian Beltre. The big contract he earned after the 2004 season in which he hit 48 home runs has clouded people’s opinion of him. Is he ever going to show that much power again? Probably not, but the 28 home runs and .233 ISO he put up last year show what he is capable of when he escapes Seattle. If you ignore his 2009 season in which he hit only 11 dingers, Beltre averaged nearly 24 home runs in the Emerald City. That number isn’t far off his 28 last season in hitter friendly Boston, but it came with a far inferior averge ISO of .188. The higher the ISO the better the opportunity for extra base hits. Safeco Field consistently ranks as one of the toughest parks in the majors for hitters, stifling right handed power like the Florida sun. Fenway Park is the polar opposite; a great hitters’ park that is the primary reason Jim Rice is in the Hall of Fame.

As good as Fenway was to Beltre, he’ll be spending the next five years of his life in an even better location: The Ballpark at Arlington. The .321 average Beltre posted last season should fall a bit since it’s unlikely he’ll maintain a .331 BABIP. However, the power numbers are real, and I’d expect him to run a bit more with the Rangers (123 SB last year, 68 for Boston) and increase his steals from 2 back into the 10-12 range. If you believe Beltre is only going to hit well in a contract year, then nothing I say is going to change your mind. For those of us who believe, and we do here at RotoGraphs if you check out our position rankings, the 2011 season should be good to Beltre.

Another third baseman on the move is strikeout king Mark Reynolds, leaving the hitter haven that is Chase Field for the beauty of Camden Yards. Baltimore is also a very good hitters park, so nothing substantial will be gained or lost in that department. Reynolds presents a conundrum for fantasy owners. His strikeout totals are astronomical, yet his power numbers are extremely coveted. Even in a year in which he hit .198 he somehow managed to smack 32 dongers in less than 600 at bats. The drop in batting average is due to a BABIP of .257, which is just a tad below his career average of .346. Reynolds’s FB percentage rose to a staggering 54.9% last season, seven percent higher than the previous year. The increase in fly balls means a drop in line drives and groundballs, resulting in far more outs and substantially less power – he dropped 50 points in ISO from 2009. He’ll be surrounded by a better set of teammates in Baltimore, taking the offensive pressure off of his back and creating more RBI opportunities than he had in Arizona. Cutting down on the fly balls will be the key to his continued fantasy revelance.

When the offseason opened up, most figured that the Angels would make a hard run at Adrian Beltre to fill the void at third base left by Chone Figgins last offseason. Well, the Angels did make a run at Beltre, but it wasn’t enough to lure him to Orange County, and now Mike Scioscia’s team will begin the season with the same mess of third basemen they had last year, namely Brandon Wood and Alberto Callaspo. Wood is looking more and more like a lost cause, but Callaspo has some fantasy value as a cheap option at the hot corner.

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