This summer I played in the deepest league I’ve ever played in, a 20-team mixed league with traditional 5×5 scoring plus OBP and Quality Starts*. It basically came down to who had the best injury luck and made the shrewdest waiver wire/free agency pick ups (i.e. whoever grabbed Jose Bautista first). My offense was fine, propped up by Robinson Cano, Jayson Werth, Hanley Ramirez, Carlos Gonzalez, and (eventually) David Ortiz. I can’t say the same about my pitching staff.

Cole Hamels and (especially) Wandy Rodriguez started slowly before having monster second halves, and the same was true for Brian Matusz. Dallas Braden was solid yet unspectacular (I had him on the bench for the perfect game figuring the Rays would hit him around), but Ben Sheets was pretty much a flop before getting hurt. My most consistent starter all year was C.J. Wilson. My weekly ERA and WHIP pretty much sucked, and the wins were scarce.

My team was still competitive thanks to the offense and luck, but the pitching staff needed work. I started to pursue trades rather aggressively in early-June but after a week or two I gave up. Quality pitching was hard to come by in this league and everyone knew it, so if you wanted a good starter you were going to have to overpay. Frustrated but in need of some kind of fix, I gave up on starters and instead turned to the free agent pool for middle relievers. Not closers and not necessarily setup men either, but guys that pitched a fair amount of innings with high strikeouts rates.

In the first week of Operation Middle Reliever I grabbed Hong-Chih Kuo (this was long before Jonathan Broxton fell apart), Arthur Rhodes, Darren Oliver, Mike Adams, and a rookie just breaking in by the name of Jonny Venters. All five had sky high strikeout rates at the time and were getting a boatload of work, so I figured it was worth a shot. Here’s what they gave me that first week…

15 IP, 11 H, 6 R, 5 ER, 7 BB, 19 K (3.00 ERA, 1.20 WHIP)

The numbers would have been better if it wasn’t for Rhodes’ first meltdown of the season, a 0 IP, 3 H, 3 ER effort that put the always scary “inf” in his ERA and WHIP columns for a few days. Aside from that, the overall production is pretty damn good, basically the same as adding two good starters to my staff. Our league carried 3 SP, 2 RP, and 3 P starting spots, so from that point on I had four or five middle relievers going every night. As the season progressed I got a better handle on things and leveraged my roster spots by keeping track of workloads (via Daily Baseball Data). The production was solid and best of all, there’s a seemingly limitless supply of these kind of relievers available. If someone got hurt or hit a rough patch, a capable replacement was just a few clicks away. Trust me, those were just the first five relievers I picked up, there was another dozen or so that came in and out as the season went on.

There’s a downside as well. Blow-ups like the one Rhodes had are inevitable and can screw up your week rather easily. If two relievers have performances like that, I basically done for the week. I was also close to punting QS, though things improved there once Hamels, Wandy, and Matusz hit their strides late. Roster efficiency was another issue; I needed four or five guys to give me the production I could be getting from two or three. I was pretty desperate for help, but the strategy worked. I finished the year with the best regular season record in the league but ultimately lost in the Championship Round.

While I recommend going heavy on quality middle relievers in deep leagues, my best advice to make sure you have good starters. I know it’s a helluva lot easier said than done, but I wouldn’t go into the season counting on bullpeners to carry my pitching staff. If you need help at midseason and aren’t willing to meet to asking price for starters in a trade, grab some high strikeout relief arms to tide you over. Don’t try to catch lightning in a bottle with sketchy starters.

* Not a fan of QS in fantasy, probably won’t use them again.

Next up in our ADP Crowdsourcing series is Pablo Sandoval, with props going out to reader Dale for the suggestion.

If I were to write a book about Pablo Sandoval right now, one of the working titles would be “A Tale of Two Seasons: How a Pudgy Third Baseman Frustrated Owners Everywhere.” After jacking 25 dingers with a .330 batting average in 2009, Kung Fu Panda managed to hit only .268 with a measly 13 homers in almost the exact same number of trips to the plate.

Looking outside of our little fantasy box, we can see Sandoval’s performance from a wOBA, and thus a WAR perspective. In 2009, Sandoval was rated at 35 runs above average. His total dipped below -3 runs in 2010. Terrific in ‘09, but somewhat terrible in ‘10. What gives?

It’s hard to truly determine his drop in power production, but we can take a little closer look at some problems that could have plagued his batting average. Was it his strikeout rate and problems making contact? Nope. How about a problem hitting line drives? A little, but not so much. Turns out, Sandoval’s problems stem from a BABIP that sat at .291 at season’s end. While Pablo went after balls out of the zone more often, I don’t think that would be the main reason for a near 60 point dip in BABIP.

This is where you come in, America. Will Sandoval’s BABIP be closer to his 2009 or 2010 numbers, or somewhere in between? Will owners expect higher production in 2011, and will they be willing to pay for it?

Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. This is not where you would draft him, but where you think he’ll be drafted in most leagues. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here.

Below are the results for this week’s ADP Crowdsourcing. If you have any suggestions for next week, leave them in the comments for consideration.

Adam Jones
My vote: 10
Average: 10.05
Median: 10
Standard Dev: 2.91

The votes were pretty clear on this one, and the results didn’t really move much throughout the day. By being taken in the tenth round, it looks like we’re assuming owners are projecting him to hit another four or five homers, with the rest of his numbers staying relatively unchanged. Also, a tenth round projection means he will be around the 30th outfielder taken, making him a third outfielder on most teams or a second outfielder on clubs who focus elsewhere earlier in the draft. Makes sense to me.

Edinson Volquez
My vote: 16
Average: 14.08
Median: 15
Standard Dev: 4.46

There was quite a bit of disagreement about Volquez, and you can see that clearly from the standard deviation of the data set. In fact, as late as Wednesday evening, the average was around 13.5 while the median stayed a 15, showing the pull of some lower outliers on the data. Being picked in the 15th round, that means owners are probably hoping for an ERA around 4.50 with high strikeout numbers and normal wins and WHIP around 1.35. This may be feasible for Volquez, and his ERA could be even lower if everything clicks. At this price, Volquez is going to be worth the risk.

Once again, if you have a suggestion, leave it in the comments for consideration. Tune in next Monday and Wednesday for the next two installments.

“Freddie Freeman looks stiff. Freddie Freeman looks uncoordinated. Freedie Freeman looks awkward. Freddie Freeman can still hit.” Jason Grey, ESPN.com

It seems that there are few reasons to poo-poo Freddie Freeman’s minor league record. He usually walked at an average rate (7.6% overall), never struck out in as many as 20% of his at-bats, and the only time he hit below .300 above rookie ball he had a terrible BABIP, especially for the minor leagues (.263). As a bonus, Freeman was always young for his league. That .896 OPS he just hung on Triple-A? He was 20.

But watch him play, and some doubt creeps in. The word stiff does come to mind. Then you look at his isolated power as he progressed through the minor leagues (.112, .206, .145, .094, .200 in order), and you wonder a little how much boom his stick will have – especially given his position. Last but now least, you might realize that the Braves just traded for another infielder, and counting Freeman now have five. You might get a little nervous.

In the end, his 2009 season may teach us more about Freeman than his excellent 2010 season at Triple-A. At 19 years old, he showed he could handle High-A, and his .145 ISO, paired with a 16.1% strikeout rate, was good enough to promote him to Double-A. There, the average age was 24.4, and perhaps it wasn’t surprising that Freeman struggled some against players five years older. Sure, his slugging plummeted to middle infielder levels, but the league-wide slugging percentage in the Southern league that year was .380, so it wasn’t the most slugger-friendly of leagues. Bryan Smith rated it as perhaps a touch pitcher-friendly when he showed that the league-wide ISO was .127.

2010 did happen. He put up a .200 ISO in a league where the average was .147, and Justin Inaz at The Hardball Times did not have the International League as a particularly hitter-friendly. What we can see is that there’s a chance that Freeman struggles at first when he gets to the majors next year, as he struggled when he first got to Double-A. He’ll be seven-and-a-half years younger than average when he joins the Braves, and the leap from the minors to the majors is similar to the leap from High-A to Double-A.

Eventually, he should get it right. That’s what he’s always done, and no matter how stiff and uncoordinated he looks, he can hit. But fantasy owners looking for a 2011 sleeper in a re-draft league may want to hold on to some of their skepticism. It may not happen right away, and the Braves do have a beefy glove-second second baseman with first-baseman-type power now. They have options and they may have to use them before the year is through.

Once a fantasy superstar, always a fantasy superstar? Not so much if you’re Edinson Volquez.

Volquez put up dominant fantasy numbers in 2008, winning 17 games with an ERA of 3.20. However, neither his FIP nor xFIP was entirely impressive, mostly because his walk rate was worrisome.

When Volquez tried to duplicate his numbers during the 2009 season, he was shut down and had to undergo Tommy John surgery after throwing less than 50 innings. In those innings, Volquez’s control got worse, as did his ground ball rate and his ability to miss bats. Calling 2009 a disaster for Volquez is putting it lightly.

After returning from injury late this season, Volquez started out very slow for the Reds. His control problems were back, and he was giving up way too many homers. But, in miraculous fashion, Volquez turned the corner big time in September, looking better than he did in 2008. His ability to miss bats was at an all-time high, and he did a great job of keeping the walks to a minimum and delivering ground balls.

Even in his best year, his WHIP was high and his K/BB rate was not spectacular. But, he was only 24 at the times, and the extra two years (even if they were shortened by injury) could have done him a world of good.

So, here’s the question I have for you: Will owners buy into his strong finish and his name value, or are they far too skeptical to assign much value to Volquez? To date, this is the toughest one to gauge, at least for me.

Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. This is not where you would draft him, but where you think he’ll be drafted in most leagues. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here.

Though the purported four-year, $48M contract offered by the Marlins to Dan Uggla would have made the second baseman the highest-paid Marlin in 2011 (and worth about a quarter of the team’s full payroll), the beefy second baseman didn’t think much of it. Perhaps he has a point – he’s beaten that value for four straight seasons (and significantly in three of those years). In any case, what would a move out of Florida do for his fantasy value?

First, though his .330 BABIP doesn’t seem drastic, it’s almost 110% of his lifetime BABIP (.302), and he hits enough fly balls (45.9% flyballs lifetime) that low-BABIP years are about as likely as high ones. In fact, he’s seemingly alternated BABIPs in the .270s with ones over .300 his entire career. Give him a BABIP in the .270s next year, and his batting average will likely decline. Don’t pencil him in for another .287 year at least.

Considering that he doesn’t steal many bases (19 career), his value is of course tied up in his power. Florida’s stadium has always had the reputation of being a power-suppressor, so it maybe surprising to learn that StatCorner says the park has a 95 home-run park factor for right-handed batters. It even augments extra-base hits (and triples especially, with a 133 park factor for trips). Some argue that three-year samples better reveal a park’s true nature, so we’ll turn to ESPN’s page to find that the three-year average for home run park factors in Florida is .931. So Uggla has perhaps seen his power at home suppressed by 5-7%, it seems.

On the other hand, Uggla’s career splits don’t seem to have noticed. He’s slugged .485 at home and .490 away, which would seem like a difference until you remove all the singles and look at the ISOs – .224 at home and .225 away – or the HR/FB rates – 15.1% at home, 15.6% away. In order for the needle to really move on his power (which has been pretty consistent, with ISOs between .216 and .254 since his rookie year), he might need to end up somewhere that is friendly to right-handed batters.

According to partner site MLBTradeRumors.com, the known suitors are the Cardinals, Nationals, Blue Jays, and Tigers, with the Braves late to the party. St. Louis is the obvious concern, with their 73 HR park factor for righties last year and a .803 three-year average – if he ends up playing with Albert Pujols, you’d actually want to bump his value down. Instead, Uggla owners should be rooting for a move north – the Blue Jays’ park had a 116 park factor for righties this year, and a 1.091 three-year average.

A quick word on Uggla’s RBI totals would seem to make sense here. Though he’s been a strong run producer throughout his career, his teams have conspired to keep him from crossing the 100-RBI threshold until this past season. The 2010 Marlins were seventh in National League in runs and eighth in wOBA. The Cardinals, Braves, Tigers and Jays all had better wOBAs and scored more runs. As long as Uggla doesn’t end up in our nation’s capital, his RBI total stands to grow.

At 30 years old, Uggla is right on the precipice, with his decline staring him in the face. He’s right to fight for the best deal he can get after getting a late start to his career. On the other hand, with the right move – to the right park – he might get a power boost that could lead to a career-high in home runs and a great peak year (at least in fantasy terms).

Adam Jones always seems to get a ton of love from someone on draft day, then never lives up to the hype and disappoints. However, his transition from 2008 to 2009 was impressive, so he hasn’t always let his fans down.

After a .277-19-10 season in 2009 in which his HR/FB% was ridiculously high, Jones made some adjustments to his swing and ended 2010 with a .284-19-7 line. While that’s a pretty solid line for a 24-year old, is this what his peak will be?

Jones put up impressive power numbers while in the Mariners organization, and it may finally be transferring over. However, his problems making contact will not only plague his batting average, but limit his power production as well. Some players can get away with contact problems and still hit a ton of homers, but they hit far more fly balls and are much stronger than Jones is.

I know some owners have considered Jones a 30-30 candidate in the past, based on his raw physical tools. I’ve always seen him as someone with a ceiling closer to 25-15, basing my opinion on his performance we’ve seen, more than his physical potential.

So, you tell me: are owners tired of waiting for another big step from Jones, or are they going to give him another shot? His drop in HR/FB% with steady home run production could mean better days are ahead, but will the Average Joe know that?

Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. This is not where you would draft him, but where you think he’ll be drafted in most leagues. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here.

Alright, let’s take a look at your thoughts on where Brandon Morrow and Jay Bruce will be drafted this coming year.

Brandon Morrow
My Vote: 12
Average: 10.7
Median: 11
Standard Dev: 3.56

This was actually really interesting if you had the ability, as I did, to sit around and watch the average move throughout the day. For the first few hours, we were hovering around the start of the ninth round, but that moved back to around the tenth as the day wore on, and eventually reached it’s final destination in the second day.

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