ADP Crowdsourcing: Pablo Sandoval
Next up in our ADP Crowdsourcing series is Pablo Sandoval, with props going out to reader Dale for the suggestion.
If I were to write a book about Pablo Sandoval right now, one of the working titles would be “A Tale of Two Seasons: How a Pudgy Third Baseman Frustrated Owners Everywhere.” After jacking 25 dingers with a .330 batting average in 2009, Kung Fu Panda managed to hit only .268 with a measly 13 homers in almost the exact same number of trips to the plate.
Looking outside of our little fantasy box, we can see Sandoval’s performance from a wOBA, and thus a WAR perspective. In 2009, Sandoval was rated at 35 runs above average. His total dipped below -3 runs in 2010. Terrific in ‘09, but somewhat terrible in ‘10. What gives?
It’s hard to truly determine his drop in power production, but we can take a little closer look at some problems that could have plagued his batting average. Was it his strikeout rate and problems making contact? Nope. How about a problem hitting line drives? A little, but not so much. Turns out, Sandoval’s problems stem from a BABIP that sat at .291 at season’s end. While Pablo went after balls out of the zone more often, I don’t think that would be the main reason for a near 60 point dip in BABIP.
This is where you come in, America. Will Sandoval’s BABIP be closer to his 2009 or 2010 numbers, or somewhere in between? Will owners expect higher production in 2011, and will they be willing to pay for it?
Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. This is not where you would draft him, but where you think he’ll be drafted in most leagues. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.
To submit your vote, click here.
Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.
I don’t know about you guys, but every draft I’ve been over the last two years, Corey Hart has gone Waaaaaaaaay after his ADP. I think Pablo will be this year’s Corey Hart with an ADP much earlier than when most baseball conscious leagues will even look at him. Presumably, someone somewhere is going to see him as a bounce back candidate and take him in the mid rounds, thus leading to the ADP, but most advanced leagues should see him passed on again and again.
Me personally, I’d consider a late round flier or as much as $4 in an auction (I wrote $5 but that felt like a lie). None of the leagues I have lined up next year are particularly deep, so Sandoval will just be under my avoid list.
This feels like 17th round or later: I don’t think people will be drafting him to start at all……unless it’s here. Let’s think of this as EE’s draft position pre2011.
As a Sandoval owner last year, of course I was disappointed with his production. But through my disappointment, I felt a greater sympathy for the insane crap that the Panda went through last year. I don’t care who you are, Mickey Mantle would have had a down year had he gone through Sandoval’s 2010. Beginning in training camp, all we heard from San Francisco was that Tiny Tim smokes weed (duh) and that the Panda was too fat. His weight issues, once cute, had become tabloid fodder. Then, we hear rumblings that the Panda Man is going through a messy divorce with his ex-wife on another continent. Imagine dealing with South American divorce lawyers during the season! On top of this, he’s got Sabean micro-managing the infield and adding Jose Guillen to the clubhouse – enough to make anyone nuts. If that’s not enough, then the Mother of Panda’s home burns down in a gas leak explosion within walking distance of the ballpark. American progress my a$$!
I know he had a disappointing season, but let’s view 2010 in context. He is only 24 and has plenty of time to straighten this out. In my 10 team NL-only league I would be glad to draft Sandoval in the 5th round considering his position.
Sympathy for the Panda!
Sympathy for the Panda, yes, but I’m not going to blame his divorce for a weak grounder. Or even 100 weak grounders. I hope he bounces back and think his *true* talent is somewhere between these two seasons he put up.
Problem is, one moment we hear that sports provide an outlet for these athletes to forget all of their worldly troubles and then the next moment we want to blame these worldly troubles for their on the field issues. It’s sort of like the whole A-Rod isn’t a clutch player…….. until he is. I really can’t use these off the field issues to evaluate how he played on the field. We just have to wait and see how he performs in the next couple of years. Hopefully it’s a lot better than last year, for his sake.
Let me just clarify that some off the field issues like drug abuse, excessive partying, immaturity, etc. can have clear and obvious implications on the field (a drug addict or partier might not be physically prepared to play the game, etc.) The mental stuff though is way too complicated for me, or anyone really, to play armchair pyschologist IMHO.
Sorry,
12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring – 8th round
15th round and only because he has positional scarcity on his side.
His performance diminished as his weight grew. I’m going to see whether he actually gets himself into shape this winter. If he does, I’m all about Panda.
Agreed with monitoring his progress but in my auction keeper league I’ll take a $12 flyer on him…
In a 5×5 league I can see him going between 8th and 10th round. Somebody will take a chance on a bounceback season.
This guy is a beast, Prince Fielder like beast even! His power has grown exponentially every year he has been a pro. Listen, he plays in a pitcher’s park and obviously has a pitching staff that keeps scores low, neither of which inspire great hitting. Beyond this, the struggles mentioned in the comment section and true, real, and unlikely to repeat. Moreover, the BABIP is the reason we use this website, a valid stat, and will undoubtedly rebound at least some. He is a lock for .300 and 25HR, but to see .315 and 30+HR would make perfect sense, IMO.