Uggla Elsewhere

Though the purported four-year, $48M contract offered by the Marlins to Dan Uggla would have made the second baseman the highest-paid Marlin in 2011 (and worth about a quarter of the team’s full payroll), the beefy second baseman didn’t think much of it. Perhaps he has a point – he’s beaten that value for four straight seasons (and significantly in three of those years). In any case, what would a move out of Florida do for his fantasy value?

First, though his .330 BABIP doesn’t seem drastic, it’s almost 110% of his lifetime BABIP (.302), and he hits enough fly balls (45.9% flyballs lifetime) that low-BABIP years are about as likely as high ones. In fact, he’s seemingly alternated BABIPs in the .270s with ones over .300 his entire career. Give him a BABIP in the .270s next year, and his batting average will likely decline. Don’t pencil him in for another .287 year at least.

Considering that he doesn’t steal many bases (19 career), his value is of course tied up in his power. Florida’s stadium has always had the reputation of being a power-suppressor, so it maybe surprising to learn that StatCorner says the park has a 95 home-run park factor for right-handed batters. It even augments extra-base hits (and triples especially, with a 133 park factor for trips). Some argue that three-year samples better reveal a park’s true nature, so we’ll turn to ESPN’s page to find that the three-year average for home run park factors in Florida is .931. So Uggla has perhaps seen his power at home suppressed by 5-7%, it seems.

On the other hand, Uggla’s career splits don’t seem to have noticed. He’s slugged .485 at home and .490 away, which would seem like a difference until you remove all the singles and look at the ISOs – .224 at home and .225 away – or the HR/FB rates – 15.1% at home, 15.6% away. In order for the needle to really move on his power (which has been pretty consistent, with ISOs between .216 and .254 since his rookie year), he might need to end up somewhere that is friendly to right-handed batters.

According to partner site MLBTradeRumors.com, the known suitors are the Cardinals, Nationals, Blue Jays, and Tigers, with the Braves late to the party. St. Louis is the obvious concern, with their 73 HR park factor for righties last year and a .803 three-year average – if he ends up playing with Albert Pujols, you’d actually want to bump his value down. Instead, Uggla owners should be rooting for a move north – the Blue Jays’ park had a 116 park factor for righties this year, and a 1.091 three-year average.

A quick word on Uggla’s RBI totals would seem to make sense here. Though he’s been a strong run producer throughout his career, his teams have conspired to keep him from crossing the 100-RBI threshold until this past season. The 2010 Marlins were seventh in National League in runs and eighth in wOBA. The Cardinals, Braves, Tigers and Jays all had better wOBAs and scored more runs. As long as Uggla doesn’t end up in our nation’s capital, his RBI total stands to grow.

At 30 years old, Uggla is right on the precipice, with his decline staring him in the face. He’s right to fight for the best deal he can get after getting a late start to his career. On the other hand, with the right move – to the right park – he might get a power boost that could lead to a career-high in home runs and a great peak year (at least in fantasy terms).





With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.

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Michael
13 years ago

I think Uggla and agent are playing with fire. He’s a liability defensively and teams know it. If/when his offensive production starts to wane, he’s not going to be that special. When that comes, who knows. 32? 33?

Of course, his agent is also probably pointing out to teams that in the past three seasons, Uggla has hit more home runs than Alex Rodriguez, Ryan Braun, Jayson Werth, and Matt Holliday.