Crowdsourcing Results: Morrow and Bruce
Alright, let’s take a look at your thoughts on where Brandon Morrow and Jay Bruce will be drafted this coming year.
Brandon Morrow
My Vote: 12
Average: 10.7
Median: 11
Standard Dev: 3.56
This was actually really interesting if you had the ability, as I did, to sit around and watch the average move throughout the day. For the first few hours, we were hovering around the start of the ninth round, but that moved back to around the tenth as the day wore on, and eventually reached it’s final destination in the second day.
I’m not surprised by your votes, because this puts Brandon Morrow squarely in the top-150, and makes him a number three or four starter on most rosters. I wondered how much owners were assuming his ERA will drop, as that will ultimately be what dictates his position, and your votes seem to dictate that the thought is it will be around the 4.00 mark.
Jay Bruce
My Vote: 6
Average: 7.7
Median: 7
Standard Dev: 2.49
Just like what happened to Morrow, the average rose as the day wore on. For the first couple of hours, the average was in the middle of the sixth round, and we may even be closer to round eight by the time this goes up. Also, I do like the smaller deviation from the mean that we saw with Bruce, giving me more confidence that the seventh round is indeed where he will end up.
Assuming he does go in the seventh, that means people are expecting about 30 homers with the same average and relatively similar counting stats. That’s about what he’ll provide, so you’re not going to get much value picking Bruce in the seventh.
Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.
It makes since that the player with the smaller average would have a smaller standard deviation. If you put CarGo on this, his sd is going to be tiny, if even above zero (if any people that think he will make it out of the first).
That’s true when you get guys going in the super early rounds, and somewhat applicable to Bruce. I do think it means something, even if it is diminished.
This exercise worked out better than I thought. I figured FanGraphs readers would artificially vote on players to go higher than they actually will end up going. However, I think both of these results are pretty reasonable.
Bruce is pre-ranked for the 8th round by Mock Draft Central, but that figures to rise a tad as fantasy players tout his strong finish.
Do Buster Posey and Justin Upton next, please.
So this is for a 12 team league right? 150 overall in 12 team is 12th round, 10 team its 15th round. big difference.
Yes, 12-teamer.
confused? Wouldn’t 150 overall be the 6th pick in the 13th rd?
Average of 10.7 would be the 10 or 11th rd, so why are people talking about the 12th rd?
Maybe we should rate them by overall pick instead of draft round (i.e. 150 instead of 12th round? i know when i voted it was based on a 10 team league.
For the first hour the post was up, the specification wasn’t included because I flat out forgot. Strangely, that should have made the ADP go down later in the day, and it went up, so I’m not too worried about it corrupting the data.
I think we’ll stick with round, at least for now, because it helps limit outliers and such, and it seems to be working just fine.
I agree sticking with round, just make sure you say in a 12 Team Draft you expect ___ Round Selection.
Just an idea for it all. Gets rid of others confusion as Teams per a round make overall selection different.
great stuff.
young starters are always great for this: Scherzer, Clay, Hanson, Shields
as well as questionable old guys: Big Z, Beckett, Lackey, Burnett
and lets not talk about Ricky Nolasco until spring training
Questionable old guys? Did someone call for me?
who the hell does snake drafts anymore?
Cobras
After April 14 (through end of season), if you just take out 1 @ Bos and 2 @ NYY, he posts: 9-4/2.97/1.21/146 (121.1 IP)