A Favorable Amed Rosario Outcome

It appears to me, that since Mike Trout became, well, Mike Trout, the standard that young players are held to has risen dramatically. Maybe I’m showing my youthfulness, or maybe it has always been this way.

In 2017, we can look at the performances of young hitters like Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, or Rhy Hoskins to see current versions of this phenomena, or we can look at Byron Buxton over the past few seasons to see how perceptions can change (either warranted or not) when a top prospect comes up and isn’t an immediately elite talent (though Buxton has been doing quite well recently).

Today, I want to take some time to look at another prospect who have recently debuted, and see what his initial 100 or so plate appearances can tell us.

Season Team Age G PA BB% K% ISO BABIP wOBA wRC+
2017 Mets 21 28 103 1.90% 28.20% 0.190 0.299 0.290 79
2017 ZiPS (R) 21 16 66 5.00% 24.30% 0.114 0.297 0.267 63
2017 Steamer (R) 21 23 92 4.70% 20.90% 0.117 0.313 0.288 77
2017 Depth Charts (R) 21 24 100 4.80% 22.60% 0.116 0.305 0.277 70

I have mentioned this before, but often times, I find that fantasy players are distrustful of projections for young players. While I don’t necessarily agree with this sentiment, I wanted to include Rosario’s 2017 line, and current projections to serve as a barometer. The first place I want to start is by looking at Rosario’s scouting report, courtesy of Eric Longenhagen, specifically, the following excerpt:

There’s a chance he has plus raw power at maturity. How much of that power he’s able to utilize depends on some refinement to Rosario’s contact skills. There is some stiffness in his hands prior to their acceleration, and he pushes far too much weak contact the other way right now, but he has good bat control, plus-plus bat speed and a decent idea of what he’s doing at the plate.

Over his minor league career, Rosario has hit ground balls at nearly a 53% rate. Which is likely too high to produce power we may want to see. However, The point I want to focus on here is, “…depends on some refinement to Rosario’s contact skills.” We know that Rosario is an exceptional athlete and defender, even his greatest skeptics would concede this point. That has value to the Mets organization and makes him a valuable piece to them even with no further offensive development. However, for anyone on the fantasy side, defensive value is irrelevant. It would be helpful to know what “refinement to contact skills” looks likes. What would be a favorable outcome for Amed Rosario?

For reference, the league average contact rate is 77.6%. Rosario currently stands at 67.2%. The league swings at 46.4% of pitches. Rosario is at 56.1%, lending credence to his 18.8% swinging strike rate. However, he is young, debuting at 21 years of age.

Amed Rosario Comps
Season Name Age Contact% Swing% SwStr% GB% BB% K% ISO wOBA wRC+
2017 Amed Rosario 21 67.20% 57.00% 18.80% 49.30% 1.90% 28.20% 0.190 0.290 79
2012 Bryce Harper 19 76.20% 49.80% 11.80% 44.60% 9.40% 20.10% 0.206 0.352 121
2013 Bryce Harper 20 77.20% 48.40% 11.00% 46.70% 12.30% 18.90% 0.212 0.371 137
2008 Jay Bruce 21 71.60% 50.90% 14.40% 44.70% 7.30% 24.30% 0.199 0.333 97
2007 Delmon Young 21 74.00% 62.40% 16.20% 46.30% 3.80% 18.60% 0.119 0.315 89
2013 Yasiel Puig 22 67.60% 53.30% 17.00% 50.20% 8.30% 22.50% 0.215 0.398 160
2007 Matt Kemp 22 73.40% 49.90% 13.30% 45.40% 5.10% 21.20% 0.178 0.385 132
2015 Maikel Franco 22 76.80% 48.00% 11.10% 47.00% 7.80% 15.50% 0.217 0.360 129
2008 Delmon Young 22 76.40% 58.20% 13.60% 55.20% 5.60% 16.90% 0.115 0.323 96
2008 Adam Jones 22 76.80% 52.50% 12.20% 46.80% 4.50% 21.00% 0.130 0.312 84
2017 Orlando Arcia 22 76.40% 53.90% 12.70% 51.00% 6.00% 19.00% 0.137 0.309 84
2008 Carlos Gonzalez 22 74.10% 51.70% 13.40% 48.80% 4.10% 25.60% 0.119 0.277 67
2014 Jonathan Schoop 22 74.10% 53.60% 13.90% 49.20% 2.70% 25.40% 0.145 0.265 64
2014 Yasiel Puig 23 74.70% 47.30% 11.90% 51.70% 10.50% 19.40% 0.185 0.379 148
2012 Wilin Rosario 23 70.80% 50.00% 14.50% 46.20% 5.90% 23.20% 0.260 0.356 107
2007 Howie Kendrick 23 75.50% 52.20% 12.70% 54.30% 2.50% 17.30% 0.127 0.346 109
2008 Matt Kemp 23 74.10% 51.80% 13.30% 45.00% 7.00% 23.30% 0.168 0.345 109
2009 Adam Jones 23 74.50% 53.30% 13.50% 55.40% 6.90% 17.90% 0.180 0.343 103
2014 Marcell Ozuna 23 70.50% 46.70% 13.70% 48.60% 6.70% 26.80% 0.186 0.338 116
2015 Odubel Herrera 23 76.40% 48.90% 11.60% 47.20% 5.20% 24.00% 0.121 0.333 111
2012 Dayan Viciedo 23 75.30% 50.30% 12.40% 46.50% 5.20% 22.10% 0.188 0.321 98
2009 Delmon Young 23 74.50% 58.80% 14.90% 49.70% 2.90% 22.10% 0.142 0.317 90
2016 Tim Anderson 23 70.70% 50.40% 14.70% 54.30% 3.00% 27.10% 0.149 0.315 97
2016 Maikel Franco 23 77.10% 52.10% 11.80% 44.50% 6.30% 16.80% 0.172 0.311 91
2009 Carlos Gomez 23 77.50% 48.40% 10.90% 45.40% 6.30% 20.60% 0.108 0.278 64
2007 Hunter Pence 24 76.50% 53.00% 12.50% 49.00% 5.40% 19.60% 0.217 0.385 132
2014 George Springer 24 61.00% 48.30% 18.60% 45.40% 11.30% 33.00% 0.237 0.352 129
2013 Starling Marte 24 75.30% 49.70% 12.20% 50.80% 4.40% 24.40% 0.161 0.344 122
2010 Adam Jones 24 75.30% 53.70% 13.30% 46.30% 3.70% 19.20% 0.158 0.336 105
2011 Peter Bourjos 24 75.30% 46.50% 11.50% 46.80% 5.80% 22.50% 0.167 0.335 114
2008 Howie Kendrick 24 76.20% 52.70% 12.40% 54.00% 3.30% 16.10% 0.115 0.327 98
2017 Javier Baez 24 65.60% 56.30% 19.40% 47.10% 5.70% 28.50% 0.212 0.323 96
2016 Jonathan Schoop 24 73.10% 60.20% 16.20% 45.30% 3.20% 21.20% 0.187 0.320 99
2013 Dayan Viciedo 24 76.90% 54.40% 12.50% 47.40% 5.10% 20.70% 0.161 0.318 98
2015 Preston Tucker 24 76.10% 50.20% 12.00% 46.60% 6.20% 21.10% 0.193 0.318 104
2011 Cameron Maybin 24 73.50% 46.80% 12.30% 55.40% 7.70% 22.00% 0.130 0.316 105
2011 Brett Wallace 24 75.20% 46.60% 11.50% 52.20% 9.50% 24.00% 0.110 0.311 95
2015 Yasmany Tomas 24 73.50% 56.90% 15.10% 54.90% 4.00% 25.80% 0.128 0.307 88
2015 Anthony Gose 24 75.00% 48.30% 12.10% 54.00% 8.40% 27.10% 0.113 0.304 90
2016 Eddie Rosario 24 73.00% 56.90% 15.30% 46.30% 3.40% 25.70% 0.152 0.304 86
2017 Bradley Zimmer 24 70.40% 46.90% 13.90% 48.30% 8.10% 29.40% 0.140 0.303 84
2015 Marcell Ozuna 24 75.30% 47.70% 11.70% 48.10% 6.10% 22.30% 0.124 0.302 91
2015 Avisail Garcia 24 70.50% 59.10% 17.30% 48.80% 6.00% 23.50% 0.108 0.295 86
2010 Carlos Gomez 24 75.90% 50.00% 12.10% 48.20% 5.30% 22.60% 0.110 0.292 76
2008 Jeff Francoeur 24 76.80% 55.10% 12.70% 44.90% 6.00% 17.00% 0.120 0.288 71
2017 Tim Anderson 24 72.50% 54.00% 14.90% 50.90% 2.40% 26.50% 0.146 0.274 68
2015 Michael Taylor 24 68.80% 52.40% 16.00% 46.00% 6.80% 30.90% 0.129 0.274 69
2014 Jackie Bradley Jr. 24 74.90% 46.70% 11.70% 46.40% 7.30% 28.60% 0.068 0.243 46
Group Average 73.39% 50.95% 13.50% 42.49% 7.26% 23.98% 0.184 0.334 106
Below Average GB% 74.04% 51.92% 13.43% 48.44% 6.09% 22.41% 0.157 0.323 100
– All seasons 2007-2017 with 300PAs
– Below average contact (77.6%)
– Above average swing rate (46.4%)
– n=125

There are a couple ways to dissect this. First, the only filters in this group are a below average contact rate, and swinging more often then league average. While a strong argument could be made that Rosario swings far more than league average, and makes far less contact, I didn’t want to limit the data too much. Over the past 10 years, we have a sample of 125 players who fit this description. To avoid listing 125 records in this post, I have only displayed record under 24 years of age (sorted by age).

A couple of these players obviously don’t fit. Bryce Harper, for example, was swinging far less, and making far more contact. Several also hit far more fly balls than Rosario. To help with the smaller sample of Rosario’s batted ball profile, I have included 2 separate subtotals from the group, one for the whole group, and another for only players with a higher than league average rate of ground balls (the bucket Rosario currently falls into). If we wanted to limit the group further for contact and swing rates more in line with Rosario’s, the comparable player groupings become even less rosy.

While I don’t think many would disagree that Rosario oozes potential, this is another time to exercise patience with the development of young prospects. While we could try to draw comparisons to other elite prospects who have debuted early, the likes of early career Jonathan Schoop, Tim Anderson, or the Arcia brothers, are more realistic comparisons. If he can reign in his approach slightly and add power beyond what projections see, we would be looking at the higher end. Following the path of offensive player similar to Adam Jones. Is that a favorable outcome for fantasy players? Jones has run a .336 wOBA over his career, but perhaps that would leave us feeling disappointed when comparing him to other top prospects who have recently debuted.

We hoped you liked reading A Favorable Amed Rosario Outcome by Joe Douglas!

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Joe works at a consulting firm in Pittsburgh. When he isn't working or studying for actuarial exams, he focuses on baseball. He also writes @thepointofpgh. Follow him on twitter @Ottoneutrades

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Moltar
Member
Member
Moltar

The one place in Fantasy where defense does matter is that plus defense can guarantee playing time. A bad defender might not be given a chance to work through struggles at the plate, but Rosario will almost certainly get all of 2018 and then some to figure it out. If only Justin Turner was still with the Mets to teach him how to hit fly balls!

DBall
Member
DBall

Good thing they resigned another great FB teacher in Daniel Murphy….oh wait they didn’t do that