Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – September 1st, 2017

Paul Sporer: Good afternoon, everyone!! Let’s talk some baseball!!

Cory: No brainer right?  Drop Cron for Bird?  May be able to keep either one for next year too.

Paul Sporer: Ya, I’m down for that. I was in on a healthy Bird, unfortunate that he was hurt so much this year

AD: My hitters drafted in the first 15 rounds, in order, were Harper, Miggy, Story, Lucroy (2C), Kinsler, Longo, Hanley, Peraza, Desmond, Forsythe. No question, it’s just been a long year…

Paul Sporer: I’d have done backflips for that draft, so I feel you. Have shares of just about that entire crew except Peraza (just never been a fan)

DreamingofWeek24: Could you give me any insight for 2 starts pitchers, teams with advantages or disadvantages? Any help would be awesome. Thanks

Paul Sporer: Actually writing up a September SP guide this weekend, stay tuned

DreamingofWeek24: 22 games up on second place in a H2H 10 team category league. Next week is last week of season and then I have a bye so I’m looking at week 24.

Paul Sporer: whoops, I posted your msgs out of order lol

Brad: No question, just a venting comment. I am reminded every year why H2H playoffs suck and are a crapshoot at best. In bad shape going into the weekend vs. lowest seeded team 🙁

Paul Sporer: Totally understand the frustration and it’s part of why I play more roto than H2H. That said, it is pretty true to real life since the playoffs can be a crapshoot in October as well

MLB THE SHOW: I suck at the show. Always and forever. I had the very first issue of The Show and have gotten it just about every year since. Never been able to figure out hitting. Not to a satisfactory level at least. Any universal hitting tips? Or settings you like best?

Paul Sporer: Zone hitting where you move the PCI (plate coverage indicator) and then hit X. Also, the single best tip for hitting is just take pitches. Force yourself to do it. You’ll let some juiceballs go down the middle on the first or second pitch and be like DAMN I coulda smashed that, but I promise you’ll do better getting deep into counts. I use a lot of players with the Unfazed quirk to force patience on myself.

Paul Sporer: The Unfazed quirk gives a player a bigger PCI with 2 strikes. It’s only live series cards, the ones I love include Blackmon, Jose Ramirez, Miggy, Votto, Simmons, LeMahieu, Inciarte

Paul Sporer: Other studs with it include Machado, Betts, Altuve, Murphy, and of course Trout

Member ‘Berrios: H2H league, need a SS for my playoff run.  I just got Segura off waivers.  Do you like him, Semien or Story ROS?  Story has a lot of games in COL with soft opponents.

Paul Sporer: I think you answered your question at the very end there. In a short sample like a month, the performances can vary wildly so just set yourself up as best as you can with Coors

Moltar: In first place but stumbling in to the h2h playoffs. Should I be aggressive on the wire?

Paul Sporer: If you see legitimate upgrades, but don’t make moves just to make moves

Moltar: Maeda or Ryu ROS?

Paul Sporer: :flips coin: —  haven’t done the Dodgers yet on my Sept. SP guide so maybe map out the schedule and see who has better matchups

Moltar: Any hope for Taillon or is he waiver wire fodder in a 12 team? Still getting Ks but not much else.

Paul Sporer: I think he’s a streamer rest of season, yeah

Confortohmygod!: Conforto and Didi Gregorious or Puig and David Dahl in a dynasty?

Paul Sporer: Seems fair with Conforto’s injury

Big Tuna: Starting Cueto tonight?

Paul Sporer: Probably so in most leagues

Michael: Ziegler worth rostering for closer?

Paul Sporer: Really situation dependent at this point

RHYSS: Go Rhys Lightning, you’re burning up the NL East
(Rhys Lightning, go Rhys Lightning!)
Go Rhys Lightning, you’re coasting up the 1B rankings
(Rhys Lighting, go Rhys Lightning)
You are supreme, the chicks’ll scream for Rhys Lightning

Paul Sporer: Love it

Minty: I know you aren’t big on catching prospects, but what’re you expecting from Mejia in keepers?

Paul Sporer: He seems to be moving away from C, right? Playing some infield in AFL so that makes me more interested

Frenchy: Is Castillo showing enough to pass Rodon in keeper leagues?

Paul Sporer: I still prefer Rodon

Gary Bertier: Carmo has an 8k/9, 1.40 WHIP, 4.02 SIERA since July 1. Thats kinda gross? Whats going on here? Getting tired?

Paul Sporer: Carmo…. carmo… carmo….

Paul Sporer: Carlos Martinez???

Paul Sporer: If it is Carlos Martinez, it seems HRs have been a major issue at 1.9 which could be noise or fatigue.

Barry: Harvey worth a look in 10 team NL only ROS?

Paul Sporer: ehhhhhhhhhh

Paul Sporer: Certainly not diving in without seeing a start

CJ03: Week before fantasy playoffs start in my league and I’m losing Louis Castillo and probably Peacock. Got any young studs you’ve got your eye on that could replace them?

Paul Sporer: Jack Flaherty? Who else is available?

JhayDhee: Plans to stream tonight/this weekend? *Eyes emoji*

Paul Sporer: Si!

Paul Sporer: Tonight for a good while for sure

Taylor: Salvy or beef Wellington ROS? I just don’t feel like salvy can swing for any power with his injured sides

Paul Sporer: I think you answered your Q there and I agree

Adam: Dropped Taillon for Glasnow (nl-only roto, hanging on to 1st but ERA and WHIP are my tightest categories). Right or dumb?

Paul Sporer: I’m OK with it. Eager to see Glasnow get another shot after tweaking in the minors

Me: You starting gausman tonight?

Paul Sporer: If the situation merits it

Paul Sporer: Honestly y’all, context is EVERYTHING at this point

Paul Sporer: there are no universal rules for start/sit

Paul Sporer: in September

El Mago: Points league, Can keep 2 of these starting at 3 dollars, increasing $2 a year. Hoskins, Pham, C. Taylor, Luis Castillo, Luke Weaver.

Paul Sporer: Hoskins and Taylor

Big Tuna: Worried about dyson losing the closer gig?

Paul Sporer: I could see it and said on pod to spec on Strickland, but he has pitched v. well for them so it’s not a HUGE chance of losing it right now

MLB THE SHOW: Good tip on the unfazed quirk. Thanks a lot!

Paul Sporer: No prob. It really helped with my patience. My lineup has 3 unfazed to start so I’m always running up the pitch count in the first inning except on the rare occasions when my opponent just pumps heaters

Michael: Sal Romano or Woodruff down the stretch?

Paul Sporer: Romano has a better shot at consistent starts since Milwaukee is competing and can’t use Woodruff if he falters

SP Strategy: For the home stretch – in roto – are you a person who prefers to pitch the kitchen sink (pitch a ton of SPs to exhaust the innings cap and let the ratios fall where they will) or try and be selective an just pitch high floor, low ceiling guys to try and deflate at ERA/WHIP. League is currently bunched in ERA/WHIP and could be a 3-4 point swing either way

Paul Sporer: If I’m running out the guys I’ve trusted all year, then I’ll continue to use them, but in a case like this, I’m unlikely to stream a ton and put myself at risk in those ratio cats

Marquez ROS : Do we believe or not believe? 10 team H2H league with playoffs starting in 2 weeks.

Paul Sporer: Man, I really like him, but v. SF, at LAD, at ARI coming up so it’s a bear of a schedule. If you’re OK with baseline quality starts (6 IP/3 ER), I think that’s about what he’ll do

Er: Trust Tomlin in the first week of playoffs? What about Snell?

Paul Sporer: I never trust Tomlin, tbh. Just not a guy I like much. Snell I’m good with

Derek: How is depth of positions looking for 2018? From worst to best: C, 2B, OF, 1B, SS, 3B

Paul Sporer: Feel like 1B is prob deepest and OF should be higher, too. I can’t see SS as the 2nd-deepest position, either

Rob: Rodon or weaver ROS? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Eek, you’re really backin me into a corner there. Two of my favorite arms. I’ll go Rodon by a nose

Paul Sporer: Ya for sure. I had Miggy ahead and obviously that flopped, but ya he’s the clear 3

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: You and AD were clearly way higher on Cabrera, Story, Lucroy, and Peraza than the pool, I think.

Paul Sporer: 0 Peraza shares and never a fan so I’d be surprised if I was an outlier on the high end in any ranking

Paul Sporer: I was 2nd-lowest in our 2B rankings

Quadrangular: Can we address some of the down talk on Rizzo from earlier this year? he’s not quite on Goldy or Vottos level, but he’s clearly just behind them at tier 1B

Paul Sporer: lol, answered a Q without posting it. I’m on fire today!

Paul Sporer: that was what this – Ya for sure. I had Miggy ahead and obviously that flopped, but ya he’s the clear 3 – was referencing

Adam: Start or sit Roark @ Mil tonight?

Paul Sporer: Again, context is everything, but leaning start in many cases

Mike: other than that his career path was very improbable, what’s so different between Blackmon’s career so far and Tommy Pham? Is that a reasonable way to look at Pham?

Paul Sporer: Health and not having Coors. I love Pham, but I’m gonna be careful w/a 30-year old breakout in drafts next year

The Other Kyle: Going to have some very tough keeper decisions at pitching next year. NL-only, $26 cap, 4×4 (no R or K)…only no-brainers are Kershaw (i’d typically never keep pitcher at 3.90, but he’d go for more in auction) and Iglesias…who would you keep from: Godley $1, Gray .50, Kuhl .10, Montgomery .20, Weaver $1, Flaherty $1, Ziegler .10, Velasquez .50

Paul Sporer: Gray, Godley, Weaver, Kuhl are my faves

ChicagoCardinal: Hey Paul – looking to round out my pitching staff for next year in Ottoneu fgpts. Some options include $1 Heaney, $7 Tehrean and $14 Cuto for auction. Like any of them?

Paul Sporer: I like Heaney at a buck. I don’t think any of em are too unfairly priced, but def prefer the cheapest of the bunch

Whit AF: Whit Merrifield – what is going on. How much of this is believable? 10% HR / FB rate…300 on the nose BABIP…14% K rate…how legit is Whit? Where does he go in March 2018

Paul Sporer: He’s pretty legit. There is a lot backing up his success and even if the power wanes, I think the speed will be there and make him a worthy late-single digit round pick

Jim: cant believe astros gave up 3 top 10 propsects to get verlander….i’ve never heard of that.  Have you?  He’s 34.  Red Sox on chris sale only had to give up 2 top 10s and hes 27 year old.  Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: Under your premise, all top 10s are created equally which of course isn’t the case at all. Pitching regularly fetches big returns via trade. Look at what Quintana netted. Yes, Verlander is older, but he was elite last year and has been fantastic throughout the second half of this year after inconsistency early on. His velo have actually gotten better and he’s been healthy for the last 2 seasons.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Hey Paul. When is the last time you thought about Corey Koskie?

Paul Sporer: Before just now,  it was several weeks ago when there was some talk about concussions in baseball among my friends

OP: Paul, do you recommend Mark Leiter, Jr. for his start against the Mets next week?

Paul Sporer: Situation dependent, of course, but he deserves consideration, yes — http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/pitcher-spotlight-august-gems-in-sept…

Larry Biggersby: Sorry for your loss re:Verlander, though I’m happy he’ll get a (deserved) postseason chance with the stros.

Paul Sporer: I’m pretty pleased with it all around. It’s always tough to see a legend leave, but now I could bounce over to Houston and watch him in the playoffs and it greatly accelerates the much-needed rebuild in Detroit

dustyfingers: I dropped Myers for Bird and don’t feel bad about it.

Paul Sporer: Ya I totally get that. The couple SBs Myers might get is the only real difference and Bird could reasonably beat him in all three triple slash numbers

dustyfingers: Could Villar have a great September?

Paul Sporer: For sure. Of course, the truth is anyone can have a great month. But for Villar specifically, he got on track in August and could definitely carry it through the rest of the year

Jim: when is fangraphs going to catch up to mlb teams and include framing into war calculations for catchers….is that in near future?

Paul Sporer: Not sure, tbh

Larry Biggersby: Fiers has come back to garbage fire level. Still worth starting vs nym, right? Or is he toast?

Paul Sporer: the HRs are back, allowed 2 in 4 of his Aug. starts. if you were ever gonna give him another run, it’d be v. NYM. they don’t have much punch after their trades

Moltar: McCullers has looked, uh, not good in rehab. No way I can rely on him in the playoffs, right?

Paul Sporer: Well, I wouldn’t correlate the two. I don’t think you can put too much into rehab starts bc they can have a spring training feel to them where the guy is working on something and valuing that over results. That said, McCullers definitely carries risk for this final month.

Mets Fan: If there’s one caveat from this soul-crushing Mets season, it’s that targeting pitchers streaming against my team could win me a fantasy championship.

Paul Sporer: See, there ya go, Larry Biggersby!

OC: Starting Cueto tonight? His rehab outing was rough (sorry if you’ve answered this already, I’m just starting to read through the chat)

Paul Sporer: Really depends on your setup. How tight are categories? How much would a dud hurt? Things like that. I’d be leaning toward starting him as a default, but then let your specific conditions drive the final decision

ChicagoCardinal: 2 of 3 for tonight: Castillo, Cole or Clevinger?

Paul Sporer: Well if you need wins, then it’s hard to start both Castillo and Cole, but that’d be my preference. Castillo for sure, then choosing between Cole & Clevy. Cole has been good v. CIN for the first time ever this year or else he might be an auto sit. I’d lean toward him

toki: Where does Nunez play when Pedrioa comes back?

Paul Sporer: All around

Daniel: did i drop villar too early?

Paul Sporer: No, he had a .609 OPS as of August 9th. Can’t beat yourself up just bc he got going in latter half of Aug.

Jaboy: FYI the SP “Positional Rankings” link on the right side of the website still links to your July SP rankings.

Paul Sporer: ty ty

Paul Sporer: fixed

Paul: Over/Under 35 bombs for Rhys in 2018?

Paul Sporer: I’ll go under by a handful, but I dig his pop

Paul: Acuna or Guerrero in a dynasty?  And how close is it?

Paul Sporer: Acuna. It’s close-ish, but Acuna a year ahead in development

Catchers: Would you take posey, Sanchez or contreras 2018?

Paul Sporer: I could see them going in reverse order, so I’d want the cheapest of the three

Guest: Is it unreasonable to bench Mookie and play Kris Davis vs righties?

Paul Sporer: Yes

Paul Sporer: It’s trying too hard

Luke: Your in charge of MLB the Show 18. What’s the first change you implement? Who do you put on the cover?

Paul Sporer: Tighten up the hitting (can’t have 110+ exit velos on late hits down the oppo field line) and catching defense; Pedro cover if we’re talking old school, Sale if it’s current player

Guest: Does Bundy get shut down as September winds down if the O’s fall out of Wild Card contention?

Paul Sporer: I mean, I guess it’s not impossible, but it’s not a big fear for me, especially the way he’s rolling right now

tonyc: Candelario should get plenty of PT, but does he profile as a mixed roto asset or just an AL-only guy?

Paul Sporer: Ya he’ll play, but he has fringe mixed league appeal

Moltar: Is there a pitcher you *wouldn’t* recommend against the Mets?

Paul Sporer: Josh Tomlin ?

Catching is a mess: Yonder Alonso’s OPS peaked at 1.086 on June 3rd. Since then he’s gone 248/345/401. Droppable in all but the shallowest formats?

Paul Sporer: Ya and even deep leaguers could probably find someone (hell, maybe Greg Bird is out there)

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta bounce! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Snapchat (psporer), and Twitch (psporer24). I will be streaming tonight playing some MLB The Show. Podcast this weekend at some point, too!