The Daily Grind: Because Somebody Asked (And I Said I Would)

I rose to new levels of terrible yesterday, scoring just 38.45 points with a DraftKings lineup. I didn’t stick around long enough to see that Madison Bumgarner was scratched.

AGENDA

1. More Maunderings About RotoQL
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. TDG Invitational Returns!

1. More Maunderings About RotoQL

A couple weeks ago, I noted that I’d be taking another look at RotoQL. I really don’t have much to add to my past reviews. It’s a good but expensive tool. The best feature – indeed the only standout feature – is only available in the $100 per month version. Based on player popularity within their tool, they’re able to fairly accurately predict who is/isn’t popular.

The built in projections are more sensitive to streaks than Steamer (the system used for SaberSim). This feels right for DFS purposes since we need to capture immediate value rather than long term value. That said, the values don’t jump around like they do on FanDuel, they’re merely better at realizing when Miguel Cabrera and Jonathan Villar need to be pushed off the top of the pile. To be clear, I’m not saying the projections are better than SaberSim, merely different.

There’s a multi-lineup tool which is undoubtedly useful to people who like to scattershot 20 rosters in a contest. I’m not that person.

If you’re interested in trying RotoQL for the final month of the season, please use my referral link. Full disclosure, I get $30 if you sign up. So far, they’ve given me a whopping $60 for referrals – trust me when I say it doesn’t color my opinion of the tool. It’s good but overpriced.

2. Weather Reports

We should be all good on weather.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Main Slate: Technically, there’s a two game early slate, but I’m not wasting my time on that. Clayton Kershaw and Johnny Cueto are back tonight. While exciting news – especially in the case of Kershaw – look for both teams to take it easy on their studs. Kershaw is facing the Padres for $13,500 (DK) while Cueto is hosting the Cardinals for $11,400. Solid matchups.

Luis Castillo is visiting PNC Park. He’s probably the most desirable pitcher in the entire slate thanks to a $9,500 price tag, ace-like numbers, a mediocre opposing offense, and a friendly park. The only downside is that he’ll face Gerrit Cole.

Jimmy Nelson will host the now Turner-ful Nationals. Bryce Harper remains sidelined with no return in sight. Nelson is having a superb season, albeit with a couple clunkers in his recent past. He’s reasonably priced at $8,400.

Blake Snell is on a hoagie roll. The southpaw is visiting a terrible White Sox offense. The downside is that Guaranteed Rate Park is much more hitter friendly than Snell’s typical accommodations.

It’s a great day for lottery tickets. A whole slew of guys could be deceptively productive. Dillon Gee, Tyler Skaggs, Reynaldo Lopez, Jack Flaherty, Mike Leake, Kevin Gausman, and Mike Clevinger are some of my favorite gambles for the day.

Stack Targets: Joe Biagini, Buck Farmer, Sean Manaea, Kyle Freeland, Nick Pivetta, Taijuan Walker, Doug Fister, Gausman, Gee, Lopez, Leake

4. SaberSim Says…

The Sim likes Kershaw, Snell, Carlos Carrasco (huh), Cole, Cueto, and Nelson. Carrasco is supposed to start the afternoon game of the doubleheader. Top sluggers are Paul Goldschmidt, Mike Trout, J.D. Martinez, Charlie Blackmon, and A.J. Pollock. Bargains include Salvador Perez, Ryan Braun, Eric Thames, and Ezequiel Carrera.

5. The Daily Grind Invitational

Fifty-five points from Kendrys Morales sure does help. Sangamc leaned on Morales with contributions from Jonathan Villar and Kris Bryant. Here is an example when RotoQL’s popularity tool can lead you astray. I originally had Morales on one of my rosters, but he was over 4X more popular than he should have been (that’s how the tool displays the information). So I audibled to a less popular option with similar projection – Adam Lind. Adding Morales was the difference between seventh and second. Anyway, congrats to sangamc and the others who rostered Morales. Leaderboard.

Let’s just make this a DraftKings week. We’ll return to FanDuel next week.