MLB DFS Pitching Analysis: April 20, 2021

Our MLB DFS lineups don’t start and end with pitching. I’m not saying to punt pitcher every night or even every now and then. I’m just stressing that each and every slate does not rest upon our pitching. That said, the pitcher position is so vital because it’s the slot where we can get the most accurate projection in an extremely volatile wing of DFS.

Our pitching isn’t just a source of fantasy points. The price tags on pitchers make it so they shape they dictate the freedoms and restrictions of building our lineups. Before reading this article, it’s highly suggested that you read my article, “DFS Pitching Primer,” so the concepts discussed here make more sense.

That we’re not selecting the best players. We’re constructing the lineups which carry the most leverage without sacrificing many projected fantasy points.

TIER ONE — CHALK: Burnes, Paddack, and Castillo

Corbin Burnes is one of the biggest strikeout machines in MLB, but had two flaws coming into the year: walks and home runs. In the offseason, he went from 96 to 97.3 mph on his low-volume fastball and 93 to 96.1 on his high-volume cutter. He’s upped his first-strike rate from 57.1% from 2018-20 to 64.5% so far this season. It’s across just 18.1 innings, but there is a clear revolution in what he’s bringing to the mound. And the results have been fruitful — 30 strikeouts to zero walks, allowing only one home run.

The matchup is tough, but he gets a park upgrade from the home run-friendly Milwaukee to the pitcher-friendly park in San Diego. His high salary makes it tougher to fit in Coors Field bats. On FanDuel, there is a much cheaper pitcher who projects better, according to RotoGrinders and THE BAT; on DraftKings, there is a different much cheaper pitcher who projects way at the top in points per dollar. The salary, a Coors Field game, and these other two pitchers will prevent Burnes from being the highest-owned pitcher on the slates.

Burnes’ team, the Brewers, are projected to put out a lineup that has struck out 26.1% of the time against right-handed pitching. This is the territory of the Rangers and Mariners, it’s so bad. And they get the park downgrade from Milwaukee to San Diego. Any pitcher resembling a strikeout per inning with decent control should feast in a pitchers’ park.

Chris Paddack that pitcher. He’s priced up on DraftKings, but is hilariously cheap on FanDuel, while projecting higher in terms of raw points than Burnes on both sites. The price tags on pitchers affect ownership so much more on Coors Field slates because people want to spend their salary cap on bats. The difference in projected ownership and points between Paddack and Burnes isn’t huge, but it’s there, and put us to a decision on FanDuel: play the best projection, despite the heavy ownership, in order to fit in Coors; or spend up on the better pitcher at similarly high ownership and find different ways to gain leverage on bats.

The other options are to play Paddack, ignore Coors, and leave salary on the table with two other stacks to gain leverage. Because the first Paddack option builds a lineup with no (if not negative) leverage over the field.

Luis Castillo is only on the DraftKings slate and he’s a tremendous value over there. Like Paddack on FanDuel, he projects for more raw points than Burnes and Paddack, making him the clear path to Coors bats that toward which everyone will be flocking. The ballpark is horrendous for pitching, but he only has a 5% barrel rate allowed to go with a 2.16 ground ball to fly ball ratio (GB:FB) and 10.66 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9).

For head-to-heads, 50/50s and double-ups, three-man and five-man contests, and maybe even bigger multipliers, the projections say we play Paddack on both sites and pair him with Castillo on DraftKings. For 20-mans and up — 100-mans, single-entry tournaments, smaller- and larger-field tournaments alike — Burnes, the best pitcher, should get us a little leverage over the field. The Astros guys coming back from COVID leave are so cheap on FanDuel that Burnes and an Astros stack does work. But this is more of a single entry or 100-man mindset. For larger fields with multiple entries, like the contests we’re targeting on DraftKings, we need to think bigger.

TIER TWO — LEVERAGE: Ryu

Nothing about Hyun-Jin Ryu drops the pants. 3.68 SIERA, good. 8.51 K/9, fine but could be better. 1.44 walks per nine innings, great. 0.84 home runs per nine innings (HR/9), elite.

But he’s facing the Red Sox who have a .211 ISO against left-handed pitching in a home run-friendly park, the naysayers will say as they nay; to which, we reply, Ryu has a 1.95 GB:FB and has allowed a 3.9% barrel rate.

Again, nothing sexy about playing Ryu, but no one is gonna play Ryu while everyone and their mommas are playing J.D. Martinez against the lefty, meaning that the Boston stack will also get some ownership, making Ryu a fantastic leverage play. He’s also in a salary tier on both sites — especially DraftKings — where Ryu lineups that spend the full salary cap will almost never be duplicated.

This is a really good pitcher, whose lower strikeouts give him a 0.95 xFIP-to-ERA disparity since 2018. But that xFIP is still a great 3.23 and his style and .282 BABIP have told us that his 2.28 ERA over his last 351 innings is very real.

Honorable mention for leverage is: Shohei Ohtani. He isn’t out of the question here, so much as his volume. The matchup is about as great as it gets against a Rangers active roster with a 26.5% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. We just don’t need to gamble on the low pitch count yielding us the raw quantity of strikeouts we need. But he’s projected at single-digit ownership on both sites, so plugging him in two or three out of 20 lineups isn’t stupid.

TIER THREE — BAD BREATH: Morton and Corbin

Charlie Morton looked like total dogcrap in his last start after looking like an ace again after looking like an average old man getting by at the end of his career. Which is he?

Morton has a great old man game, as the NBA Heads would say. He doesn’t need to throw 95 mph anymore (he throws 94’ish) because he so heavily relies on his curveball. It’s troubling that his curveball usage has dipped under 30% this season because he’s at his best when he pushes 35-40%, as he did in Tampa. The point is that Morton’s game ages well. He can probably pitch well until he’s 40 or so. And get ace-level production as he has over recent years.

Production like a 3.58 SIERA, 10.92 K/9, 0.72 HR/9, 5.5% barrel rate allowed. This is all repeatable.

No one is going to play him because of his volatility and the matchup against the Yankees in one of the most prolific home run parks in baseball, but this is exactly a spot where Morton can succeed for us at low ownership. If we’re gonna roster a pitcher against the Yankees in New York, it’s one with high strikeouts and a low barrel rate. Plus, like Ryu, no one is playing pitchers in this price range, so our build will be unique on top of the contrarian Morton play. A Morton play is, therefore, has a high success rate relative to the ownership along with creating a high-leverage lineup.

Remember that we’re not picking players. We’re building lineups.

Bringing us to — closes eyes — Patrick Corbin against a Cardinals projects a lineup that has crushed left-handed pitching to the tune of a .217 ISO.

Corbin’s lost a couple of mph on his fastball and slider since he was last great in 2019 and everything’s gone down since. Chances are he’s washed up. But that doesn’t matter (and no, I don’t partake in 4/20 celebrations). Here me out:

If the chance he isn’t washed up is greater than his ownership, he’s worthy of exposure in larger field tournaments greater than his ownership.

Honorable mention for guys who’ve recently left a bad taste in everyone’s mouth is Rich Hill. The thing with Hill is that he’s as great batters chase his curveball. If they chase his still-great curveball, he stays ahead in counts and doesn’t have to throw that sad 88-mph “fastball.” The Royals are a patient team, so the success rate is very low, but — again — at ownership so low, he doesn’t have to be successful often.

All stats cited are since 2019, unless otherwise noted.