Who is Being Dropped & Why (Week 13)

Last week, none of the drops seemed like a value and deserved to be immediately rostered. The options are better this week, especially if a manager can wait on a hurt player (e.g. Boyd or Goodrum).

For this weekly feature, I use the NFBC Main Event because of the number of identical leagues. Additionally, the managers stay engaged longer on the whole since each spent $1700 per team. I tried to find that sweet spot between the obvious and bizarre drops and will focus on players dropped in seven to ten leagues. Previously the number was six to nine, but I adjusted with the Main Event adding four leagues since I did the report.

Hitters

Taylor Trammell (10): The 41% K% is killing his fantasy value. While he has above-average power (8 HR, .210 ISO), he just has a .643 OPS. The poor results have him batting ninth when he does play (started in six of last 10 games).

Niko Goodrum (10): When playing, he was a decent source of steals (12) while being a sink in batting average (.216). I expect managers who are in need of some steals will add him and wait until he’s off the IL.

Christian Arroyo (10): He’s not a good enough hitter (.264 AVG, 4 HR, 1 SB) to keep rostered when on the IL (knee).

Patrick Wisdom (9): What an outstanding first 15 games it was for him (8 HR, .375 AVG). After those games, he’s fallen off (.167 AVG, 2 HR) and only started in five of the last 10 games. His 41% K% is weighing on his production as his BABIP comes down to earth.

Nick Gordon (9): Not playing. He has started in three of the last 10 games.

Rowdy Tellez (9): Optioned to AAA.

Billy McKinney (9): Once the rest of the Mets started getting healthy, McKinney (.706 OPS) moved to the bench having only started in three of the last 10 games.

Ian Happ (9): Two of these drops were from my Main Event teams. He’s been struggling with the bat for a while (.184 AVG, .635 OPS, 8 HR, 1 SB), but now he’s only started in four of the last 10 games. Jake Marisnick (.785 OPS) and Rafael Ortega (.623 OPS) are now in a center field platoon.

Francisco Mejía (9): While hitting OK for a catcher (.240 AVG, 3 HR), he’s only starting about 40% of the time. Many of these drops are by managers looking for an upgrade.

Albert Pujols (8): In the five games since Muncy and Bellinger returned, Pujols has started one game.

Bradley Zimmer (8): This drop is a little surprising but maybe it shouldn’t. He has 15 hits this season and not one extra-base hit. Also, a 38% K%. His outfield playing time might be secured with Josh Naylor on the IL since Zimmer had only started in seven of the last 10 games.

Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 (8): He’s only started in three of the last 10 games while hitting .213/.270/.361 with 5 HR and 5 SB this season.

DJ Stewart (8): Another instance of not playing (started six of 10) and not hitting (.212/.316/.365 with 7 HR).

Kevin Kiermaier (8): And another. He’s started six of ten games while hitting .234/.289/.311 with 1 HR and 5 SB.

Matt Beaty (7): With the rest of the Dodgers getting healthy, Beaty heads to the bench. With a .708 OPS, he wasn’t forcing himself into the lineup.

Isaac Paredes (7): Demoted back to AAA.

Luke Williams (7): Williams isn’t starting much (six of 10), but has been hitting .300/.317/.475 with 1 HR and 1 SB. He’s someone to track to see if he gets any more playing time.

Starters

Justin Dunn (10): On the IL with a strained shoulder. He was a little lucky with a 3.75 ERA with his ERA estimators in the 5.00 range.

Tyler Anderson (10): He’s a streaming option (4.48 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) and with a game at Colorado and versus Milwaukee, he was a reasonable drop.

Cody Poteet (10): The combination of too many walks (4.7 BB/9) and home runs (2.1 HR/9, 33% GB%) has led to some blowups (4.99 ERA). He needs to get one of the pair under control to be a rosterable starter.

Brad Keller (9): Way too many walks (4.4 BB/9) for a pitch to contact guy. Additionally, he’s not getting the groundballs (53% to 47%) needed to limit extra bases. The jump in strikeouts (5.8 K/9 to 7.9 K/9) has come at the cost of the rest of his game going down the toilet.

Vince Velasquez (9): The good May (2.96 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) didn’t last into June (6.23 ERA, 1.44 WHIP). There are some underlying signs to worry about like a declining strikeout rate (13.1 K/9 to 9.9 K/9 to 8.3 K/9) and velocity.

Justus Sheffield (8): Somehow, he has 5 Wins with a 1.66 WHIP and a 5.69 ERA. His “good” stretch was in May (4.67 ERA) when he had a 5.0 K/9 and a 4.0 BB/9. I’m trying to figure out why he was rostered so long.

Matthew Boyd (7): He’s on the IL (triceps) and it’ll be after the All-Star Game until he returns. He might be worth stashing for those teams in need of pitching.

Dinelson Lamet (7): On the IL with an inflamed elbow. This drop feels like it happened too fast. I would have waited a week to get more medical details before making a decision.

Relievers

Jake Diekman (10): He hasn’t gotten a Save since May 26th with two blown Saves since then. Lou Trivino has 5 Saves during that time. While Diekman might still get some Saves, he has the deadly combination of allowing too many walks (4.7 BB/9) and home runs (1.7 HR/9) to be rostered as a non-closer.

Stefan Crichton (8): Waived and reported to AAA.

Paul Fry (8): For managers grinding for Saves, I’m not sure why Fry was dropped. While Sulser got the last Save, Fry was used in the ninth inning of the tied game and came away with a Win.

J.P. Feyereisen (7): After 3 Saves in his first four appearances with the Rays, he hasn’t got one since then. In 15 IP with Tampa, he 14 K, 10 BB, and allowed 1 ER. So many other relievers have better skills and the same chance of getting a Save.





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

2 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
wobatus
2 years ago

Happ seems to have struggled after having dealt with an concussion, or whatever it was that had him out after the collision, although he hit right at first he got back (and he also slumped at the beginning of the year, leaving a bad overall line). A lot of players have seemed to struggle after injury this year. Kris Bryant, Haniger, J.D. Martinez somewhat (although he may be warming up)

OT, something to study, along the lines of your recent look into pitchers facing a team twice in a relatively short time: what is the effect of a start being delayed by a day due to a postponement, pitchers being such creatures of habit and routine.