Who is Being Dropped and Why (Week 5)

A ton of hitters fell into the range of drops I examine. I’m not 100% sure why. Maybe the managers don’t feel they don’t need the extra hitters to cover for entire teams not playing.

For this analysis, I use the NFBC Main Event because of the number of identical leagues. Additionally, the managers stay engaged longer since each spent over $1000 per team. I tried to find that sweet spot between obvious and bizarre and will focus on players dropped in six to nine leagues.

Hitters

• Khris Davis (9): He’s not hitting (.536 OPS) or playing (four of last 10 games).
• Nico Hoerner (9): A Davis clone. Hoerner is not hitting (.552 OPS) or playing (also started in four of the last 10 games).
• Starlin Castro (9): Broken wrist. Likely out for the season.
• Alex Dickerson (8): He’s hitting OK (.685 OPS and 3 HR) but only facing right-handed pitchers.
• Elvis Andrus (8): He’s been struggling at the plate (.494 OPS) and is now on the IL with back issues.
• J.P. Crawford (8): He started the season out hot. Over the first 20 games, he hit .293/.398/.360 with three stolen bases. Since then he’s hitting .061/.111/.061 with just one steal.
• Johan Camargo (8): He’s playing every day while filling in for Ozzie Albies. He’s struggling at the plate with a .591 OPS but three homers.
• José Peraza (8): His .622 isn’t as low as some hitters, but he hasn’t hit a home run or stolen a base this season.
• Luis Arraez (8): Like Peraza, Arraez has no stole bases or home runs but at least he has a decent batting average (.275).
• Miguel Andújar (8): Not playing (22 PA on the season) or hitting (.232 OPS).
• Roberto Pérez (8): He just got off the IL while posting very pitcher-like numbers (.433 OPS).
• Adam Frazier (7): He’s getting eaten up by a .208 BABIP leading to a .200 AVG. With any batted ball luck, the AVG could improve to go with the four homers and a steal.
• Derek Dietrich (7): I never understood why he was added in the first place. Did anyone think Dietrich was going to help them win a league?
• Edwin Ríos (7): He needs more than shiny rate stats (1.012 OPS) to be useful. He needs to play. Even before he went on the IL (hamstring), he was starting every other game.
• Jason Castro (7), Danny Jansen (6), and Stephen Vogt (6): Part of the catcher carousel.
• Michael Chavis (7): I think some managers are going to be kicking themselves for this drop. While he could be hitting better (.687 OPS), Mitch Moreland might get traded, so Chavis might get full-time play at first base within the week.
• Rio Ruiz (7): He has hit six homers and walks some (11% BB%), but he continues to be unable to hit for a decent batting average (.212 in 2020, .218 for his career).
• Todd Frazier (7): I’m surprised to see this drop. Frazier has started in eight of the last ten games. He has a .747 OPS with two homers. He’s qualified at two positions (1B, 3B). With teams taking zeros because of COVID outbreaks, he’s at least a nice bench bat.
• Willi Castro (7): He’s hitting fine (.907 OPS) but is playing about every other day.
• Austin Hays (6): Out with a fractured rib.
• David Dahl (6): On the IL with back soreness that may explain his .054 ISO.
• Edward Olivares (6): Optioned to the alternate camp.
• Ji-Man Choi (6): Still just starting against right-handed pitchers.
• Lewin Díaz (6): He started twice at first base last weekend but that has been it.
• Mauricio Dubón (6): He’s been OK (.265/.311/.324, 1 HR, 2 SB). There are worse options being added.
• Scott Kingery (6): Rougned Odor-lite is struggling. A complete disaster.

Starters

• Adam Plutko (9): While filling in for the Selfish Boys, his no strikeout, all flyball approach is not working for some reason. He allowed seven runs in just three innings this past Friday.
• Kyle Wright (9): I don’t get why he was rostered. A complete mess stemming from a career 7.8 BB/9.
• Austin Voth (8): His velocity has dropped back to his 2018 levels (91.4 vs 91.7). The results are similar (1.46 WHIP vs 1.44 WHIP, 6.57 ERA vs 5.00 ERA).
• Griffin Canning (8): Something is off with every stat getting worse.
• Jake Arrieta (8): I could maybe see the drop. He is more of a streaming option at this point in his career.
• Patrick Sandoval (8): I liked him as a sleeper pick coming into the season, but the strikeouts are down. The main cause is his fastball losing its swing-and-miss ability. The velocity is the same but it is generating just half the swinging misses.
• Robert Gsellman (8): He was good back in 2016. He’s been useless for the last four seasons with a 2.14 WHIP and 7.71 ERA this season.
• Gio González (7): It was a nice two-step for him last week with 12 K’s, 2.16 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and a Win in 8 IP.
• Mike Minor (6): The home run (2.2 HR/9, 6.75 ERA) are killing him even though the groundball, strikeout, and walk rate are all similar to last season’s breakout.

Relievers

• Daniel Bard (8): He still might end up as the Rockies closer but he failed in his last opportunity.
• Gregory Soto (8): He’s been crazy good but it looks like Buck Farmer may be the Tigers new closer if they move on from Jimenez.
• Tony Watson (7): I think Watson is still the closer but the Giants haven’t had a Save in almost two weeks.
• Andrew Miller (6): He’s one of two closers the Cards are using. I’m not sure why the drop.
• Keone Kela (6): Forearm injury.