SwStr% Leaders

SwStr% is a simple metric that is calculated by taking swings and misses and dividing it by total pitches. Why is SwStr% important? Simply put, if a pitcher can produce a bunch of swings and misses it means his strikeout rate should be high. The more strikeouts the better, because if you look at an elite pitcher in baseball you will see a high strikeout rate. It is well known that SwStr% correlates well with a pitchers strikeout rate. Want to know if a player’s K% is over or underperforming? Check out their SwStr%. The rule of thumb (although it isn’t exact) is to double a pitchers SwStr% and their K% should be around that number. Keep in mind some pitchers will be outliers if they consistently rely on called strikes, like Aaron Nola.

Let’s take a look at the SwStr% leaders so far this season.

Shane Bieber – Shane Bieber’s 18.7 SwStr% comes with a 43.3 K%, both of which are insanely high and likely due for regression. The 19.8% is driven by his two secondary pitches, both of which have a 27.0 SwStr% or higher. The golden egg here is his curveball, it currently has a 54.7 O-Swing%, 27.5 SwStr%, and 88.2 GB%. The crazy part is that he never throws it into the zone as it only has a 21.5% zone rate. There is good reasoning here though because when Bieber has thrown his curveball outside of the zone it has produced a .029 ISO against, .029 batting average against, and a .070 wOBA against. If hitters keep chasing his curveball, by all means, keep throwing it outside of the zone. With Bieber’s stellar command and deep arsenal expect him to continue making his case as the best pitcher in baseball.

Luis Castillo – Luis Castillo’s 16.1% SwStr% matches up well with his 30.3 K%. The rise in his strikeout rate shouldn’t surprise many as Castillo has two legitimate swing and miss pitches in his changeup and slider. Trust me, there is nothing better than watching Castillo throw his changeup.

Here is the crazy thing, so far this year Castillo’s four-seam fastball has a 16.4 SwStr% well above the league average of roughly 11%. The reason behind this seems to be his velocity. In 2019 he average 96.5 MPH and so far this year he is averaging 97.6 MPH. If Castillo’s fastball keeps performing this way, expect a career-high in K% and SwStr%.

He certainly has been underwhelming so far this season. Keep holding on though, as his 4.44 ERA comes with a 2.05 FIP, .403 BABIP, and 62.2 LOB%. None of those are on par with his career numbers and insinuate that he has had a run of bad luck. If you don’t own him look to buy low if possible.

Dinelson Lamet – Dinelson Lamet seems to defy all odds with the way he is pitching. The worry with Lamet coming into 2020 was that he basically had one pitch. His slider is insanely good and he is throwing it more than ever. The main difference in Lamet’s arsenal is his four-seam fastball. It was bad last year as it had a .414 wOBA against. That is brutal. This year is a completely different story though. His four-seam is up 1.5 MPH and his vertical movement on the pitch is up 1.2 inches. The result? Its wOBA against is now at .227 this year. Take that tangible change and pair it with a 14.7 SwStr% and 25.8 K-BB% and it’s no wonder he holds a 1.89 ERA with a 2.99 FIP.

Pablo Lopez – Of course we have to talk about one of the most surprising names on this list. Glancing at Lopez’s 14.7 SwStr% and his 26.1% strikeout rate it looks like Lopez might see more strikeouts in his future. The main development behind Lopez’s recent success is his increase in changeup usage. It has now surpassed his four-seam fastball and has become the most thrown pitch in his repertoire. With an increase in RPM’s and velocity his changeup is inducing a lot more whiffs taking a massive jump in SwStr% from 17.2% in 2019 to 25.5% in 2020.

Last year Lopez seemed to be making strides with every start. An injury derailed that halfway into the season but seeing a young raw pitcher make those improvements really tells you everything you need to know. As you can see this year he continues to do the same. Plus if you listened to him on the Pitcher List podcast, how could you not fall in love with the guy? All in all, Lopez seems to be a great breakout candidate for this year.

Kevin Gausman – Another surprising player, although Gausman seems like a Robbie Ray type of pitcher. He will compile a ton of strikeouts but the ERA might not get there. The 14.8 SwStr% and 31.6 K% are elite but the 4.65 ERA is average. Now the FIP of 3.12 and the xFIP of 2.93 tell a different story, but the home runs seem to be an issue. With an above-average HR/9 and Barrel%, Gausman obviously has issues with giving up hard contact. His future seems to come down to that but regardless the strikeouts will likely stick around.

Gausman is kind of stuck in a tier of his own. He might not be good enough to own all season but he is also too good to be a streamer. In 15 team leagues, he is a definite own but in 12 teamers he is on the border and it is just a matter of which way he falls. Think of him as Humpty Dumpty sitting on that wooden fence.

Kenta Maeda – My heart broke for Maeda when he lost his no-hit bid in the ninth inning. He’s an easy pitcher to root for and when he was traded to the Twins it seemed like we might finally see a full season of Maeda. Now with a shortened season, we will definitely see him go the distance and so far he has not disappointed.

In five starts he holds a 2.27 ERA, 2.46 FIP, 15.4 SwStr%, and 28.7 K%. Maeda has ditched his four-seam and is mainly throwing his slider and changeup. Both of these are plus breaking balls, but his changeup is on another level. With a 48.4 O-Swing%, 23.5 SwStr%, and 75.0 GB% this pitch has it all. In fact, it ranks third in the league amongst all changeups in terms of wOBA against.

Overall everything seems to check out because he is inducing more whiffs, letting up weaker contact, and his FIP is only .20 above his ERA. At the end of this season, Maeda could very well be in the CY Young conversation.