Where Have Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s Home Runs Gone?

Since 2021, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been one of the best hitters in the league. As we enter June, he has just three home runs and his worst power numbers for several years. At this pace, he will finish with nine homers — the same as he managed in the shortened 60-game season in 2020. His top-20 average ADP has resulted in returns that barely put him in the top 20 at first base, and that poses the question: Can this regression be explained?

What could ring some alarm bells is the drop in his barrel rate, which has halved from 12.2% to 6.9% so far in 2026. Hard hit rate is down over eight points from 50.7% to 42.2%, and his SLG has dropped nearly 90 points year over year from .467 to .379. These are not small fluctuations and should be points of concern for fantasy owners. The HR/FB rate tells the same story, sitting at just 5.6% compared to a considerably higher career norm. When a hitter of Guerrero’s caliber sees his barrel rate halve and his hard hit rate drop by more than a tenth, theories of some more permanent regression are going to be talked about.

What is interesting is that the zone breakdowns clearly show where he has struggled so far this season. Guerrero’s attack angle and bat path allow him to attack all areas of the field, but when he is not barreling the ball at the rate expected of him, the holes can start to appear in clear areas of the zone, especially when compared to last season.

The most glaring drop-off is in zone 2 at the top of the strike zone. In 2025, that was arguably his most productive area — a SLG of .879, wOBA of .533, and ISO of .455. In 2026, those same numbers read .286, .239, and .000, respectively. The ISO of .000 is pretty telling — he has generated zero extra base power in zone 2 this season. While mechanically there is no regression or difference in attack angle, tilt, or any of these metrics, he is simply not squaring up balls at the top of the zone, and it is resulting in more pop-ups and ground balls. His squared-up contact rate in this top zone has dropped 17 points from 40% in 2025 to 23% in 2026. Meanwhile, his pop-up rate has jumped 8 points, and his ground ball rate has also increased 10 points. The fly balls and line drives that were producing that .879 SLG in 2025 are simply not happening — the bat is getting under the ball or rolling over it rather than driving through it. He has yet to barrel a single ball in zone 2 in 2026, compared to elite barrel production in that zone last season. Compounding this, pitchers have identified the vulnerability — his In Zone % is down 5.9 points in 2026 while his Out of Zone Swing % has jumped 9.5 points, meaning he is seeing fewer hittable pitches and chasing more outside the zone.

We can see this reinforced in the squared-up tool — Jack Dorfman wrote an excellent piece explaining the tool in relation to the struggles of Fernando Tatis Jr, which I would recommend reading for a deeper dive into this metric.

In 2025, Guerrero’s orange dots tracked close to or above the league average curve in the 10-35 degree launch angle range — the window that produces line drives and home runs. In 2026, the blue dots fall consistently below the league average in that same range, and the largest circles — representing his most frequent contact — are concentrated below 10 degrees, in ground ball and weak fly ball territory. When he is hitting fly balls, there is a big gap between the orange dots, showing his inability to square up those pitches this season.

His fly ball squared-up rate has dropped from 62% in 2025 to 50% in 2026, sitting 18 points below the league average of 68%. When he does get the ball in the air, he is making quality contact on only half of those batted balls, which explains the increased pop-ups and ground balls. With one of the flattest bat paths in the league, he has very little margin for error on elevated pitches. When he is on time, he can still drive them, as the 2025 orange dots show. When the timing is slightly off, the flat path produces pop-ups rather than line drives and fly balls. On the flip side, his ground ball squared-up rate is up from 60% to 65% and above the league average of 63% — the contact quality on low launch angle balls is intact and improving.

While this all sounds like a hitter on the precipice of decline, it is this ability to maintain his ground ball contact quality despite the absence of home runs that is helping him retain his value as an elite hitter. His flat bat path allows him to hit to all areas of the park, and while he still has elite bat speed at the 94th percentile, his xBA is elite, and his xwOBA remains very respectable. All this while having a maxEV of 116 in his locker with no sign of declining bat speed.

We can see the impact of decreased power correlating with his wOBA, but following a pretty significant drop, there has been a clear recovery trend in the last 10-15 games. Both lines are trending back toward and above the seasonal average, suggesting he was suffering from a dip in form rather than a fundamental decline — and if that trend continues, the power numbers may not be far behind. Even if this season is a down year in terms of home run production, he still has the skillset to have significant value this season and remains one of the best bats in baseball. The power will not stay suppressed indefinitely for a hitter with a maxEV of 116 and bat speed at the 94th percentile — the only question is timing, and the rolling average suggests that timing may be sooner rather than later, suggesting no need to worry about his top-end value, and remains a strong buy-low if attainable.