When You Can Buy Low
Last year, I explained how you may actually be able to buy low and sell high. As you no doubt have learned when trying to make these types of deals, it is much easier said than done. In the coming weeks, we are going to be inundated with articles naming all the same players with the assumption that just a snap of the finger will allow an owner to swoop in and buy low. Rotoworld has already suggested we sell Omar Infante high. Really? What fantasy owner in his right mind is trading for Omar Infante after a week and a half of surprising power? There are ways to buy low and sell high though. You just need a story. Today I’ll just focus on the buy low side.
Now of course before targeting a player for a buy low offer, you have to believe he won’t continue to stay low. So I won’t speculate as to whether the players I name are good targets, but simply name them as guys you have a better chance of pulling off this type of trade for. The story is mandatory to really sell that buy low offer. You’re not buying Jose Bautista or Robinson Cano low. There is simply no fear you could stir around the owner’s mind to truly make him consider that these players are headed for a disappointing season.
Surprisingly enough, this year Albert Pujols actually qualifies as a player in which a story can be conjured up. Between last year’s reduced level of production and a league switch, there is enough here to put some doubt into his owner’s head.
How about Alex Rios? He was atrocious last year and many, including me, expected at least somewhat of a rebound, rendering him undervalued in drafts. But, he’s off to a terrible start once again and is hitting pop-ups like crazy. I have no real idea if the good Rios will ever show up, but he is definitely one that if you believe so, you can likely get him for peanuts.
Then you have the multitude of hitters who made many pre-season sleeper lists off to slow starts such as Ike Davis, Mike Moustakas and Dexter Fowler. As an owner, the longer the slow start continues, the more you’re going to be questioning whether you were right about these players. Since owners were probably expecting these types to post stats they have never recorded before, there’s really nothing to take comfort in to maintain the owner’s confidence.
Moving on to pitchers, right now it looks like a disaster field out there. Among the bottom 15 pitchers in ERA to start the year, you will find names such as Max Scherzer, Daniel Hudson, Josh Johnson, Dan Haren, Zack Greinke and CC Sabathia. Scherzer you may be able to legitimately buy low, as he suffered from a 4.00+ ERA last year. The others, probably not.
Also among those cellar dwellars are prime buy low guys like Francisco Liriano, Luke Hochevar and Juan Nicasio. I don’t even know where to begin with Liriano. It boggles my mind how he can be so dominant in the spring, with stuff supposedly looking great, to sucking yet again over his first two starts with all of his underlying metrics mirroring last season’s disaster. But hey, if you want him, I’m sure his owner is just about ready to give up on him and he’ll be yours for the taking!
Hochevar had a strong second half ERA last year, leading many to label him a sleeper, and his spring was fantastic as well. Then Friday happened and I’m sure most owners are thinking they drafted the bad Hochevar.
The bottom line when buying low is that there’s got to be a story that is reasonable enough to create some doubt inside the target player’s owner’s head. You rarely see these types of players included in buy low articles. All you see is the established players with known levels of production who happen to start slowly. These are the players least likely to be able to be bought low, but the author won’t tell you that the advice is almost impossible to act upon!
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
“You’re not buying Jose Bautista or Robinson Cano low. There is simply no fear you could stir around the owner’s mind to truly make him consider that these players are headed for a disappointing season.”
Don’t be so sure. Someone in my league just traded Bautista for Heyward and Neftali Feliz, citing his poor start. I had just managed to get McCann from the same guy, and thought I was doing well…
Wow I know Bautista is off to a slow start but that trade is a steal! Heyward isn’t exactly having a worldbreaking start himself and Feliz is still unproven. Both for one of the best hitters in baseball.
Not exactly having a worldbreaking start? Is an OPS over 1.000 not enough?
If you’re in a league with total idiots, there’s no need to intelligently discuss how to beat them. In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king. So long as you don’t lose Internet access for six months, you’re golden.
Or, as in my case last year, you are stuck playing with people that insist upon weekly lineups and so injuries on a Monday ruin everything.
Someone in my league just traded Bautista for Strasburg, Marmol, and Balfour. Never underestimate the stupidity of a moron.
Is Alex Rios a buy-low or a bio hazard?
Seeing as Alex Rios got a hit and a stolen base today and is hitting .200 on the season, technically he is probably a SELL HIGH now since this is probably the peak of his fantasy value.
That’s typical Rotoworld BS for you. Justin Verlander could allow six runs tonight and they’d probably say “Buy Low.” And when they’re in doubt about a new player who’s producing, they recommend him for AL-only and NL-only leagues (where anyone with a pulse normally has value).
Widen the landing strip, keep giving out advice that really doesn’t help anyone. That’s the MO.
Most of the guys you cited aren’t guys I would buy low for anything but peanuts, which most owners won’t accept. Ike Davis….simple slow start, or after effects of Valley Fever? I don’t know, and I’m not willing to risk a great deal because of that. I’d pony up, say, Nolan Reimold for Ike Davis, but that’s about it….and if the owner is a knowledgeable person, he’s probably willing to hold onto Davis to see if he rebounds rather than accept a return like Reimold.
Well, that’s the whole point of the article and why Davis is a guy you can buy low. The Valley Fever creates doubt in his fantasy owner’s mind, so if you think he’ll rebound, he’s someone you can likely buy low successfully.
I believe what Bob is saying though is that typically a current Ike Davis owner already is bought into Ike Davis implicitly. I mean, who would draft Ike Davis, injury, valley fever, and all, but not but into the upside of the risk? For the most part, so generally, drafts and auctions should be pretty efficient about distributing these types of players to those who value them most in the first place. Thus it would be very unlikely for someone in possession of Ike Davis to offer enough of a discount, from say his projected value, to make him truly buy low worthy.
I actually traded Liriano for Scherzer. (Btw who won that trade?) Maybe Liriano keeps crapping the bed, and I can get him back for peanuts in a couple of weeks.
I always found the best time to buy low is about 1/4 through the season. Owners are generally not going to get too panicky over a bad 8 game stretch because it’s obviously a small sample. 150 at bats (or 40 IP) is still a pretty small sample, especially when you’re talking about home run totals and ERA, but people start freaking out around then.
I’m with you on this one. In April, everyone can still live up to their potential despite a bad start to the season. However, once the calendar turns to May, people start to panic more.
I usually figure I don’t even know what my team needs are until May anyway, so it’s sort of useless to start trading before then (unless it’s a complete no brainer, but those are rare in my leagues)
Or to use another’s example, I drafted Morneau. He’s off to a bit of a slow start, but I believe enough in his ability to produce, when healthy, which by all accounts he is. You might be able to get him away from me for, say, Derek Holland, but that is more than most folks want to pay until Morneau shows he can produce…at which time, an offer of Derek Holland won’t do it.
I guess what I’m driving at is that guys who drafted people like Morneau, Davis, Morales, etc. believe enough in their upside that a few weeks of substandard production isn’t going to make them accept pennies on the dollar.
At least that’s been the case in every league I’ve been in. You will pry that speculative pick from the owners’ cold, dead hands.
I wouldn’t give you a bag of chips for Morneau. I’m worried about him becoming bad enough to where he is not rosterable.
MIGHT be able to get him away from you for Derek Holland? Wow. Like, the other guy said, I wouldn’t give you a bag chips for Justin Morneau.
If you’re going to buy low on Fowler, wait until a full week of road games. He is non-rosterable on the road. His OBP is 50 points lower on the road compared to his home games, and his SLG is 100 points lower. 40 point difference in AVG, 50 fewer RBI, 30 fewer runs, and half the HR on the road.
If you’re in a 12+ team league and can deal with platooning an OF spot, splitting Venable and Fowler and playing Venable only on the road and Fowler at home will net you Victorino-like numbers. Could do worse with two late-round/wire pickups.
Venable’s road numbers, in 690 career PA:
20 HR, 97 R, 83 RBI, 38 SB, triple slash .273/.337/.440
Fowler’s home numbers, 834 career PA:
11 HR, 136 R, 83 RBI, 30 SB, triple slash .281/.382/.465
Who do you play when the Padres are at home and the Rockies are away – this happens 40 times a year.
Nothing worse than another owner trying to “spin” story in a trade offer. Has this ever really worked? It turns me off to a trade immediately and, frankly, it’s sort of insulting.
“Player A hasn’t really been very good since last August and that new park he’s in isn’t helping him…” etc. etc.
Ok then, why are you trying to trade for him? You must assume I am a dolt.
I’m perfectly OK with other owners taking an honest approach when pitching a trade (e.g. I need speed, you need power, how about Fast Speedson for Homer Powerstein), just don’t insult my intelligence.
I think the most effective thing is to not spin a story. Talk about something completely orthogonal to the “he’s underperforming/injured/done” angle. Like, “Hey, I’m looking for an OF upgrade and you seem thin at [whatever position], what do you think about parting with Player X for Player Y?” If (and this is a big “if”) the owner is getting worried about the player in question, you let him think he is the smart one and you are the dumb one for making an offer for someone he’s already thinking of dumping. If he’s not worried about the player then he rejects the trade and you haven’t insulted his intelligence by trying to give him a sales job. Win-win.
@ Mcbrown:
Totally agree.
I should have clarified and actually considered adding this into the post but didn’t- I am NOT suggesting you actually type the story out as part of the trade offer. I completely agree that when an owner tries to spin, I immediately laugh and it leaves a bad taste in my mouth.
What I am suggesting though is to think of the story in your own head as why the owner might be willing to sell low. If you can’t come up with a story yourself that you believe the owner might think, there’s little chance you’ll get the player at a discount.
Agree with the above. Your story can never be “my player is doing so great and your player is sucking, lets trade so I can help you out.” You never can pry a bone out of a dogs mouth: you have to distract it instead.
The best way to buy low IMO:
* incorporate the player you want into a need-based trade. Don’t even mention the slow start. If they are panicking, they’re panicking. They’re not going to panic because you told them to (and that you wand their problem)
The best way(s) to sell high IMO:
* Say you never liked this player personally because (yada yada yada) and just don’t really want him on your team. You’re willing to sell him for a bit less than his current stats say he’s worth because you just don’t want him
* Just place the sell-high player on the trading block with no comment. If people are hot for him, they’ll come to you.
It’s pretty amazing just how quickly people can lose their minds 5% of the way through the season.
National Overreaction Month! Catch the fever!
I nominate Drew Stubbs as a plausible buy-low candidate. In one standard 12 team league I’m in, he was dropped, and despite having 12th waiver priority I was able to claim him. I’d say there’s a decent chance (not a certainty, but a chance) that whoever owns him in your league is willing to give him up for peanuts.
Honorable mentions based on add/drop transactions I have seen within the last several days, all in standard-ish leagues with 12+ teams:
* Freddie Freeman
* Adam Lind
* Brandon Belt (obviously at risk for continued Bochy-ing, but notable nonetheless)
* Michael Pineda
* Daniel Hudson
* Clay Buchholz
* Jhoulys Chacin
This is something I plan on discussing in the abstract occasionally at THT (where I’m doing the Trade pieces). Don’t want to give too much away before I actually write the article I have in mind, but suffice to say, I’m not convinced buying and selling based on discrepancies between recent performance and expected performance is necessarily the most efficient way to exploit a trade-based market. Your point about building narratives (or rather, allowing your opponents to build narratives) is a good point though.
I think it’s fairly obvious that there are other factors to consider in constructing a trade, and I don’t think the author claimed otherwise.
Well I apparently pulled off a great buy-low trade – based on the crap I’ve gotten in the Ellsbury thread.
Ellsbury was overhyped to begin with. He started slow. And now that’s he’s on DL, every “buy-low” guy should be out there making offers on this wunderkind. You should be able to get him for a bag of peanuts. But of course that won’t happen because every expert who was hyping him as the greatest thing since sliced bread (how else was he some 1st or 2nd round ADP) is now advising dumping him to the waiver wire to pick up this week’s shiny waiver wire toy (who will supposedly be a 30-30 player but who was invisible two weeks ago?).
Yu Darvish? Puhleeze. He smelled overhyped by all the “experts” coming into this year. Has pitched pretty poorly against two really really bad offenses. I didn’t need to spin some tale to the previous owner. Ooh – and pitching against Detroit in Detroit next. I doubt you’ll need to spin a tale to his owner to buy him low then. All you’ll need to do is offer a fix to some other problem that the owner has that isn’t really available on the waiver wire.
I truly do not understand the names you attach to “buy-low” in this article. They were all underdrafted sleeper names to begin with. Of course you’re not going to buy them low — they were already bought low during the draft two weeks ago. By someone who thinks they got a great deal – so they will wait. Hochevar? He may be on the waiver wire in a 20-team league.
The players who you are going to buy low are the overhyped – not the underhyped/sleepers. Where are the actual overhyped names on a buy low list? People who were actually drafted high for spurious reasons and are now sucking gas. The reason you won’t see any of those overhyped names on any “buy-low” list is because the writers who are compiling buy-low lists are the same ones who overhyped these players in the first place. Those authors are going to have to resolve their own cognitive dissonance problem before they add those names to any buy-low list – in a month or two. By that point, you won’t need to “spin” any yarn to their owner.
The way to make a trade happen with another owner is to analyze their roster yourself and offer a fix to a problem they have. If they have SB probs, then help them fix it. If they have a position problem, same thing. Buy-low doesn’t happen because of some nonsense used-car salesman story. It happens because owners worry about their own roster problems – and value a solution to those far more than they value a particular player who isn’t contributing squat right now.
@jfree – Dead-on, on the proper way to construct trade deals. Look at your opponent’s needs and figure out a way to meet them while improving your team. All trades should be this thoughtful.
I don’t have any animosity towards the touts for suggesting players though, even when they don’t work out as hoped. That’s part of the fun of the game, guessing at who will be good and who will be over-priced. The hype makes that possible.
It’s pretty simple.
If the majority of the KNOWLEDGEABLE fantasy public is extremely bullish, you sell high.
If the majority of the KNOWLEDGEABLE fantasy public is extremely bearish, you buy low.
Pitchers with K/9s over 10.0 cannot be bought low unless they are injured. I consider that to be a hard and fast rule (which would disqualify Scherzer and a bunch of those other guys).
If you wait long enough you can get guys off waivers as well. So far in my two yahoo leagues I’ve picked up Michael Pineda and BJ upton and stashed them on the DL, picked up Shin Soo Choo, Wilson Ramos, and Jair Jurrgens from overzealous drops, and swooped in to get Frank Francisco because….actually, I don’t know why he was dropped.
I laughed when I read you say “what fantasy owner in their right mind is going to trade for Omar Infante after a week and a half of surprising power. I received a trade offer from our leagues likely most knowledgeable owner, although he tends to play hunches and streaks, while I play stats more. He offered me Dustin Pedroisa and Yu Darvish, for Infante and Tommy Hanson. I was really happy with my batters, except at 2B, and so I had thought Christmas came early. As for Darvish and Hanson, that might come back to bite me. I know no matter how good a guy was in Japan, it don’t necessarily translate to the Show, but I also had great concerns about Tommy Hanson’s health over the season. I think I am the winner in this deal, although for this week in head to head play I was not.
There’s no thinking you’re the winner in that deal. You are certainly the winner in that deal. Pedroia is a 2nd/3rd round pick, Infante is late round/waiver, and Darvish and Hanson were being drafted in the same range.
Swapped Brandon Phillips for Tim Lincecum — buying low?