Who Closes For the Giants?
The San Francisco Giants aren’t picking up any good vibrations from Brian Wilson. Wilson complained of elbow pain this weekend, and will likely miss the remainder of the season. Between 2008 and 2011, Wilson saved 163 games for the Giants, emerging as one of the best closers in the game. With him now out, the Giants will need to find an acceptable replacement. Given that the Giants have a strong pitching staff that should keep them in a lot of games, that replacement could have considerable value in fantasy leagues.
Manager Bruce Bochy was hesitant to name one guy as the replacement, instead opting for a combination of Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla and Javier Lopez. More often than not, closer committees don’t last long. Managers typically ride the hot hand until things take a turn for the worse. With that in mind, here’s how each player stacks up.
Of the three, Lopez is the riskiest choice. Lopez has walked 10.4% of batters in his career while striking out only 15.1%. While Lopez has been effective against left-handed hitters over his career, he should never face righties. Against right-handed hitters, Lopez actually walks more batters than he strikes out. Lopez would be best employed in his current role as a matchup guy. If Bochy plans on allowing him to pitch an inning at a time, opposing managers throw as many righties out there as possible.
Casilla had a microscopic 1.74 ERA last season, but pitched much better than out-pitched his peripherals. While Casilla was still effective — his FIP was just 3.10 — he also struggles with walks. Casilla will strikeout a fair amount of hitters, though, and could be effective in the role unless his poor control comes back to haunt him. Casilla was Bochy’s first choice to close last year when Wilson missed time at the end of the season.
While Casilla would be effective, Sergio Romo is easily the best option out of the bullpen — and may have been even when Brian Wilson was healthy. Over his career, Romo was struck out 30.5% of batters while walking just 5.5%. Those are phenomenal numbers. Romo is other-worldly against righties, holding a ridiculous 7.86 K/BB ratio against them over his career. He’s also extremely effective against lefties, holding a career 2.80 FIP against them. If Romo gets the job, he could easily become one of the best closers in the game.
Even though Romo has proven to be one of the best relievers in baseball, Bochy seems hesitant to use him for prolonged periods of time. While Romo appeared in 65 games last year, he only threw 48.0 innings. Both Casilla and Lopez threw more innings last year, and Casilla only appeared in 49 for the Giants.
Even with fewer innings, Romo’s 2.2 WAR was easily the best of the group. Bochy’s refusal to give him innings is maddening. Of course, that could all change now that Wilson is out. Based on last season, though, Casilla might be the favorite to lay claim to the role. While he’ll probably do well enough to be worth a waiver wire claim in most leagues, Romo would be one of the most coveted free-agents if he claimed the job. Allocating playing time to his best players isn’t one of Bochy’s strengths, and it appears that trait will carry over to the closer role. Casilla looks like the choice now, but keep an eye on Romo.
Chris is a blogger for CBSSports.com. He has also contributed to Sports on Earth, the 2013 Hard Ball Times Baseball Annual, ESPN, FanGraphs and RotoGraphs. He tries to be funny on twitter @Chris_Cwik.
Isn’t it worth noting that there are concerns about Romo’s arm? As long as you’re complaining about his mysterious under-usage, the fact that he’s already hurting this season is germaine to both the concerns about his ability to hold up and how well suited he is to become the primary replacement for Wilson.
Yeah, I had him last year (and again this year) but I watched him closely enough to think Bochy is not operating on no information.
Picked up Castilla with a FAAB bid.
it is spelled Germane…not Germaine no?
I agree with Oliver here, something is up with Romo too. Casilla should be the favourite out of the gate…remains to be seen if he can hold it.
Anyone think Dan Otero should be mentioned in this conversation?
Good breakdown. This would have been more useful if published a day or two earlier, since most roto leagues process FAAB bids and waiver claims Sunday night.
What are the odds of Heath Hembree getting the call to close?
About 1 in 1 bajillion
I think Casilla gets first crack based on his fill-in work last year and solid numbers.
Hope he runs with it because I added him to replace Wilson since Romo was long gone.
The above article reads like a 4th grade paper. What does the author say here that is already obvious: Casilla recorded the most saves last year, Romo is the superior pitcher. And as Oliver points out, omits the most likely reason why this is the case: Romo is fragile himself, missed time last August due to elbow trouble as well (and this is precisely why Casilla led the team with six saves after Wilson exited towards the end of last year), and currently faces the prospect of missed time. We get it, Romo is clearly the superior pitcher when looking at the numbers. Sometimes though, I fear that the authors here put far too much emphasis on the numbers and not enough at real life circumstance anymore.
What’s with fifth graders getting all high and mighty these days?
The above article reads like a 4th [fourth] grade paper. What does the author say here that is [not] already obvious[?]: Casilla recorded the most saves last year, [comma splice] Romo is the superior pitcher. And [nonstandard] as Oliver points out, omits [implied subject not necessarily clear] the most likely reason why [awkward phrasing] this is the case: Romo is fragile himself, missed time last August due to elbow trouble as well (and this is precisely why Casilla led the team with six saves after Wilson exited towards the end of last year), and currently faces the prospect of missed time. We get it, [comma splice] Romo is clearly the superior pitcher when looking at the numbers. Sometimes[,] though, I fear that the authors here put far too much emphasis on the numbers and not enough at real[-]life circumstance anymore.
Thank you for that. I agree with your approach; the best way to rebut someone’s argument is to point out their grammatical mistakes. Bravo sir, you’ve won here on the interwebz.
It’s not really a strategy worth taking unless someone is criticizing someone else for writing a “4th grade paper.” In which case, it’s a throwing stones/glass house situation. For funsies, I missed one. Not sure how you place emphasis “at” something.
Want me to rebut your argument? Some people who play fantasy baseball in shallower leagues probably only pay close attention to who is actually closing. Some people might not follow the Giants all that closely. If you feel you have such a firm grasp of the facts of the situation in SF now that Wilson is down, don’t read the fucking article, and certainly don’t be a dickhead about it.
I think Marky Mark just got kicked in the Funky Bunch!
I particularly like the [nonstandard] after a sentence beginning with and. It’s remarkable how many people have seemingly never read a book that is not an English textbook. Idiom happens. Poorly argued (if not altogether misguided, as this is yet another fill-in-the-blanks with relevant stats, conduct little-or-no original research article, on an otherwise good site that is plagued by such articles) as the comment being criticized is, prescriptive grammarian bullying should be a hanging offense. It’s petty and mean-spirited and more than a little classist.
Dear Internet: No one cares about your technical know-how/stylistic ignorance. The validity of an opinion is not determined by the rigor of its grammar.
Well, I’m sure Marky Mark appreciates your assuming he belongs to a certain social class based on his shitty grammar. That’s not offensive in the least.
I will fully admit to starting plenty of sentences with “and” in my time. Which is why I said it was nonstandard, and not actually wrong. As every writing teacher in the history of ever says, “Once you know the rules, you can break the rules.” Basically, save the lecture. Rather than make civil criticisms of the article, “Marky Mark” came here and generally comported himself like a jackass. And (see?) called someone else’s writing out as subpar despite evincing very little in the way of what might be charitably described (OMG I JUST SPLIT AN INFINITIVE) as “a fucking clue about how the English language works.”
It was, admittedly and intentionally, petty and mean-spirited. He was being a douchebag and he got a response in kind. Sic semper…assholes.
Anyway, let me know when I can expect the lynch mob to get here. I’d very much like to evacuate my bowels so that I might die like a gentleman. Classist!
Its also worth mentioning that when Bochy picked Casilla for saves opps over Romo that Romo was also on the DL.
“Casilla had a microscopic 1.74 ERA last season, but pitched much better than his peripherals.”
This sentence is confusing. You mean his results were better than his peripherals right? I.e., he pitched worse than the 1.74 ERA indicates
This confused me as well once I read it over. I altered it slightly.
Moral of the story: Bochy is an idiot. But we already knew that.
With the elbow problems Romo has experienced in the recent past coupled with the success of Casilla in his absence, I think Bochy goes with Casilla for the most part. I do like the idea of calling up Hembree, but maybe just to fill the set-up role void with moving Casilla to the ninth.
At some point in the distant past, someone managed to spill a soft drink on the underside of my desk at work. Every once in awhile I will accidentally graze it with a naked knee (in the summertime, when wearing shorts at work is appropriate.) It’s not sticky, it’s slightly tacky, just different enough from clean bottom-of-desk that I notice it and am a little grossed-out.
(I’m not going to clean it, it’s not worth putting that kind of effort into it to avoid the occasional graze. I’m messy like that, you just have to accept it.)
Anyway, that sensation of mild stomach-churn that I experience when I graze my naked knee on the bottom of my desk is exactly how I feel when I think of Casilla getting the majority of the Save opportunities in San Francisco. The numbers don’t excite me, I just don’t think he’ll be able to fill Brian Wilson’s impressively massive shoes. The beauty of Sergio Romo is that he can. He even has a fantastic beard. And the Giants need a guy who can win the close games. If Romo doesn’t have the job locked up by mid-season* I’ll be very disappointed and think more poorly of Bochy (unless the Giants do nothing but win between now and mid-season.)
*insert injury disclaimer here.
Sometimes the “best” relievers should not be the closers. I think the situation in SF is an example of this. Romo should not close because he is more valuable in higher leverage situations.
I hate Closers.
I hate all pitchers 🙂
Nobody in the current Giants bullpen fits the role perfectly. Casilla has stuff, but lacks consistency. Romo has an elite slider (and great command), but lacks durability…you can’t trot him out night after night without risking injury…the Giants know this, and to their credit have used him properly. As stated earlier, Lopez is an elite lefty matchups guy. Affeldt might be an intriguing option because he can get leftys and righties out, but I see him more of a setup person. Perhaps its “closer by committee” until the trade deadline, and if the Giants are still in contention, then rent someone like Huston Street?
Since this topic is about who closes for the Giants now, my vote is for the “committee” – fantasy owners will be disappointed.
All signs point to Casilla here, at least in terms of what will actually happen. As to the actual merits of Casilla vs. Romo — I really don’t wish to be the trolling jerk who rips on FG authors, but it’s frankly just sloppy reporting not to take Romo’s serious health concerns into account. He was on the DL last year for elbow problems, and he shut himself down for a stretch this spring with the same problems. As great (and as lovable — LOVE that dude!) as Romo is, I think it also bears mentioning that Bochy’s usage patterns for Romo have contributed greatly to his success, and likely to his staying on the field as much as he has. And while I know this goes against what was basically Stathead Mantra #1 for most of the last decade, I also think there may indeed be some pitchers for whom the closer’s role isn’t ideal from a mental / psychological approach standpoint. Romo did not pitch well in the 2010 postseason, and has given up a few other pretty memorable longballs in his day; and, after getting a rare save against the Mets at AT&T a year or two ago, he was pretty candid about finding the experience nerve-wracking and even uncomfortable. (He did, however, end the game by striking out Scott Hairston on three absolutely obscene sliders, which was a serious dragon-slayer moment for Giants fans.)
Romo is awesome. He’s one of my favorite players in baseball. But given the above factors, and especially his questionable durability (that motion and that slider can’t possibly be good for your arm), I don’t think it’s unreasonable at all to look to Casilla first in this situation. The “Bochy is an idiot” meme is about as silly as the #27 Front Office thing.