Waiver Wire Week 21: 10 SP Targets

Each week I look at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 30% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) with a few extra sub 10% discount options at the end, pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

Let’s highlight my ten favorite starting pitcher options that may be available on your waiver wires, roughly ordered from top to bottom:

Under 30% Owned

Joe Musgrove (Pittsburgh Pirates) – Yes, Musgrove hasn’t been great recently, with two of his last starts accruing 7 ER total. That’s still not enough to turn away his 3.56 ERA production on the season, while his sub 5% walk rate has helped return a 1.20 WHIP. I don’t see a pitcher that should fall to a 4.00 ERA here and with seven QS in his last nine starts, he’s a must add for those in Quality Start leagues down the stretch.

Derek Holland (San Francisco Giants) – It’s pretty easy to sell a guy when he’s holding a 2.65 ERA over his last 71.1 frames as a starter, a major catalyst for Holland’s consistent presence in these weekly columns. Then there’s the 3.5 FIP, 24.5% K rate, and 8.6% BB rates that all point to this being valuable in the final weeks, with increased breaking ball usage and a move on the rubber to sweeten the discount. There’s no reason to leave him on the wire in competitive 12-teamers.

Joey Lucchesi (San Diego Padres) – It’s a 3.74 ERA with a 25% K rate and 1.29 WHIP across the entire season. Those marks are only better in his last four with a 30% K rate and 7.7% walk rate as he faced the Cubs, Phils, Diamondbacks, and Coors. This is a starter that should be getting more love.

Tyler Glasnow (Tampa Bay Rays) – While his last two starts haven’t been as glamorous as his first three for the Rays, it’s still hard to turn away a starter holding a 31% K rate over his last five outings. Walks are returning and there are questions about a small sample size, but he’s worth the gamble as the strikeouts aren’t going away.

Mike Minor (Texas Rangers) – Increased velocity? Check. Turning a bad pitch into a good one? Fastball, check. Changeup, check. Minor has held a 3.11 ERA over his last 11 starts, improving his fastball and changeup command and suddenly turning into a consistent arm at the backend of your staff. He won’t be flashy with a sub 10% whiff rate in that time, but it can be hard to find sturdy innings eaters on thin wires.

Mike Leake (Seattle Mariners) – Speaking of innings eaters, Leake is boasting 14 of his last 17 games with Quality Starts. Sure, it’ll include plenty of the “Poor Quality Starts” of 3 ER right around the 6.0 IP threshold, but that level of consistency can be of value in deeper leagues. Don’t be put off by his recent 5 ER effort either – he is more than capable of rebounding given his track record.

Matt Harvey (Cincinnati Reds) – Did you realize that Harvey is holding a solid 3.58 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 15% K-BB% across his last 11 starts? Now that he’s sticking around in Cincinnati through the final weeks, his schedule of Brewers, Pirates, and Padres in the near future could be beneficial to teams early in their playoffs.

Jakob Junis (Kansas City Royals) – For a pitcher holding a -12.8 pVal with his fastball on the season, it’s hard not to raise an eyebrow when the pitch holds a positive 3.7 mark over his last five games (-16.5 pVal prior!). The result has been a 2.32 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 26% K rate and a 4% walk rate in that time, though we shouldn’t be treating him like a stud suddenly. These numbers are heavily inflated by a recent CG against the Tigers featuring a decent amount of luck, but there may be something here to suggest Junis is a 20-25% K rate, 3.80 ERA, 1.25 WHIP guy in September. That holds value and could be a cheap option at the end of your staff.

Under 5% Owned

Trevor Richards (Miami Marlins) – He had a horrendous start against the Braves on Augut 14th, but he’s produced at least 7 Ks in four of his last five starts while boasting a 2.95 ERA over his last eight games, carrying a 27% K rate in that time. There are still kinks in his 1.31 WHIP and 11.5% walk rate, but those come down to 1.15 WHIP and 9% walk rate in his last seven games. The major shift is a larger emphasis on his changeup, hinting at a 40% usage over 30% prior. The result is a 9.3 pVal with the slow ball in his last seven games. Richards is definitely worth a shot down the stretch, especially if you’re in need of strikeouts.

Wei-Yin Chen (Miami Marlins) – It’s another pitcher out of Miami, which shouldn’t be a huge surprise given their lack of national attention. Chen has suddenly spiked his slider usage to 25%+ helping him return a phenomenal 1.54 ERA over his last four games. There are indications it shouldn’t last – .210 BABIP, 90% LOB Rate are pushing that ERA two points higher to a 3.63 FIP – but there’s a chance he can provide solid innings down the stretch as he faces the Blue Jays, Pirates, and Mets in his next three starts.