What to Expect in 2012 from the Top HR/FB Decliners

On Saturday, I took a look at the five hitters whose HR/FB ratios increased the most from 2010 to 2011. This time I switch it up to check out the bottom of the list, those hitters who experienced the largest declines.

Is Aubrey Huff the biggest enigma in baseball? Check out his wOBA trend since 2007: .337, .387, .297, .388, .294. Seriously, who the heck is the real Huff? Do I take the easy way out and just assume the trend continues and his HR/FB rebounds back to the 14.0% level in 2012? It gets harder now because he is already 35 and this past season saw him post his lowest ISO since 2001. All of his others skills were generally in line with past years, aside from a small jump in strikeout rate, so nothing really appears to be an obvious red flag. Although the odds are that he does rebound at least somewhat, I am unfortunately going to have to throw up my hands and admit that I just don’t know.

Joey Votto appears near the top of this list only because he was one of the surgers last year. This is a good example that reminds us that more often than not, regression will occur the following year. As much as we want to believe a player has reached a new talent level or will be able to at least hold onto most of his gains, the percentage play is that the career year is just an outlier (unless your name is Jose Bautista of course). What’s interesting about Votto this season is that his fantastic LD% hurt him on the power front. Althoug his HR/FB ratio did decline, he would have hit more home runs if he didn’t post such a relatively low FB% for an elite power hitter. He could get back into the low-30 home run range if those line drives become fly balls in 2012.

Is this the beginning of the end for Vladimir Guerrero? With his excellent contact skills, he still posted a good batting average, but with the inability to take even the token walk and a massive drop in power, he may no longer even warrant full-time at-bats. Given his DH-only eligibility in fantasy leagues, I would be surprised if he was drafted as a starter in many shallow mixed leagues. At some point father time is going to rear its ugly head, and with Vlad’s annual aches and pains, there doesn’t seem to be much upside to be worth taking a risk here, even if it’s at a low cost.

Even during Aaron Hill’s disappointing 2010 season when he hit just .205, he still posted a 10.8% HR/FB ratio, sustaining a lot of the gains he made during his 2009 breakout. Then 2011 happened and makes us wonder if maybe 2009 and 2010 were actually the flukes. Hill will be 30 next year, so he should still be in his prime and such a big drop in power is surprising. Although I am not confident enough to predict what kind of rebound he may see in his HR/FB ratio, I do think he is a good risk on draft day. His average should increase as he posted a .268 BABIP, despite a solid 21.2% LD%, and his FB% came back down to a reasonable level, one that was too high in 2010 and hurt his BABIP as fly balls do. Though I wouldn’t count on 20 steals again, he could post another double digit total and given his power upside, I think he is worth going after, with the expectation that you’ll be able to get him for peanuts.

After breaking out in 2010 with a .366 wOBA, Colby Rasmus was quite the disappointment this season, which caused the Cardinals to feel they could part with him. The move to Toronto actually helps his power output as Busch Stadium suppressed left-handed home runs by 9% over the last 3 years, while the Rogers Centre was neutral. Rasmus is an extreme fly ball hitter and saw his contact rate rebound closer to the level he posted during his rookie 2009 season. This is noteworthy because any increase in HR/FB ratio will really boost his home run total. Interestingly, according to Hit Tracker Online, the average standard distance of Rasmus’ home runs were higher in both 2009 and 2011 when his HR/FB ratios were much lower than what he posted in 2010. Given the distances his home runs travel, it is a surprise that he could only muster a HR/FB ratio of 8%-9%. I think a jump back into the low double digits appears safe next season. In addition, his poor year may lead to nice profit potential as he has the upside to contribute in all five roto categories.